298
FXUS63 KICT 210708
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
208 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic thunderstorm chances through next week, mainly during
  the evening, night, morning hours. A handful of strong to
  severe thunderstorms possible.

- Near to above average temperatures through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

Model consensus keeps a stout upper ridge anchored across the
southern to southwest CONUS the next several days. This will keep
the Kansas region within a northwest flow aloft pattern favorable
for periodic thunderstorm chances, underneath a persistent mid-level
thermal gradient. Unfortunately, predicting exactly when/where
thunderstorms will form and track is extremely difficult in patterns
like this, making for a low confidence forecast. Seasonable
instability combined with modest deep layer shear (with a decent
directional component given the NW flow aloft) will support periodic
strong to severe storm chances.

Thinking isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will exist
overnight into early this morning generally along/west of the Flint
Hills. While a marginally severe storm capable of dime-quarter size
hail can`t be ruled out given the decent deep layer effective shear,
widespread severe weather looks unlikely.

Another signal for scattered elevated thunderstorms exists from
early this evening through tonight, as 800-600mb warm advection
commences once again ahead of shortwave energy dropping southeast
across the upper Midwest. Instability and directional shear combo
will favor a few strong to severe thunderstorms. This activity could
linger into early Saturday morning.

Much of Saturday and Saturday evening look dry, with additional
storm chances arriving from the northwest late Saturday night and
Sunday. As mentioned earlier, these off-and-on thunderstorm chances
look to continue much of next week.

TEMPERATURES:

With the stout upper ridge remaining anchored within fairly close
proximity of the Kansas region, near to above average temperatures
are expected through at least the next 7-10 days. Afternoon through
early evening heat indices look to be in the 95 to 105 degree range,
highest over south-central and southeast KS. Not anticipating any
heat headline issuances on this shift.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. East winds currently observed across the area will
gradually develop turn to the south/southeast through the morning
hours, though speeds in general should remain below 12 kts.
Additionally, thunderstorms observed over portions of central KS
will continue tracking south here tonight, though impacts to
terminals should be relatively minimal.

We continue to see the potential for more elevated showers and weak
storms around or just before daybreak and lasting into the mid-
morning hours. Currently thinking these will reside to the east of I-
135, though with coverage likely isolated in nature, decided to go
without a mention at ICT with this issuance. Additional chances for
showers and storms will return to portions of central KS later
Friday evening, though confidence in location and timing is a bit
too low for mentions at RSL/SLN at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK