826
FXUS63 KICT 152346
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
646 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some strong to marginally severe storms are possible along
  with localized flooding from heavy rain this afternoon and
  evening.

- Above normal temperatures will linger areawide Wed-Sat with record
  or near record highs possible.

- A more dramatic cool down is expected late this weekend along
  with increasing probabilities for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Water vapor/RAP analysis has a 120+ knot H25 jet stretching from the
Upper Mississippi Valley area north and east across the Great Lakes
and into Quebec while a robust mid/upper ridge was situated over the
Tennessee Valley area. This puts the Central Plains region on the
southern periphery of the more robust mid/upper SW flow. A moist
plume evident on moisture channel imagery was situated across the
area with PWATs around 2 inches. A cold front was bisecting Kansas
late this morning stretching from SW Kansas north and east into
northeast Kansas. This front is progged to accelerate southward this
afternoon providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The
airmass along and south of the front is expected to have large
dewpoint depressions with steep low-level lapse rates and moderate
CAPE which will be favorable for strong/severe wind gusts with the
strongest storm activity. Some storm activity will linger into the
evening hours and perhaps during overnight hours as a weak LLJ noses
into south central and southeast KS. Some training of storms along
and behind the front could lead to locally heavy rain.

Rising heights are progged across the area on Wed as the frontal
boundary mixes northward resulting in another hot day across the
region. Any lingering morning shower activity should be confined to
parts of central KS early in the period. Afternoon highs are
expected to rising into the upper 90s once again. Normal highs for
mid Sep are in the low to mid 80s.

Thu-Sat...the mid/upper ridge will continue to impact the area
through the period with dry conditions anticipated Thu-Fri. The heat
will persist into Saturday with most areas seeing highs in the
upper 90s, but a shortwave trough moving over the Northern Rockies
on Sat may help break down this ridge and bring increasing chances
for showers and storms to the area Sat night into Sunday. Another
impactful cold front is also expected to arrive on Sunday ushering
in more seasonable air through early next week. Some shower activity
may linger into early next week but confidence in the larger-scale
details remains rather low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A cluster of storms are currently over ICT and slowly moving to
the east northeast along a cold front. This area of storms is
expected to continue through the evening before dissipating late
tonight. The main threat with this activity will be very heavy
rainfall, gusty and erratic winds, and frequent lightning.
Behind the front, low ceilings are expected to develop with IFR
ceilings impacting central Kansas through the early morning
hours. These low ceilings will begin to clear by late morning
with a return of VFR conditions.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...WI