246
FXUS63 KICT 190545
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight (20%) chances into the early evening

- Dry and warm Thursday-Sunday

- Rain chances returning early next week mainly over northern
  Kansas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

A shortwave trough is making its way southeast through the Missouri
River Valley. There was enough forcing to develop showers and
thunderstorms in northeast Kansas which continue to track southeast.
While most of the activity should stay in northeast Kansas, this
could drop into southeast Kansas even based on the latest guidance
and paths. Thus slight (18%) chances were added. These storms pulse
up and down given the lapse rates and instability, but the thought
is that they would be briefly strong. Additional scattered
convective development along the southeast Kansas border with
Oklahoma as well this afternoon which prompted the addition of
chances (20%) for that area as well.

Breaks in the rain are expected as a ridge moves into the central
CONUS for the end of the week into the weekend. High temperatures
are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices
approaching 100 degrees in part due to evapotranspiration. This is
certainly a way to start astronomical summer. Mixing will bring
stronger southerly winds with sustained speeds of 15 to 30 mph and
gusts up to 45 mph. The winds should help the feels like factor.

A shortwave will track mainly over the Northern Plains early next
week which could bring the next chances for showers and storms
primarily over northern Kansas. There is plenty of time for changes
in the probability and timing for any activity. If you have plans,
continue to check the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Southerly
winds will increase to 10-15 kt by mid-morning with gusts up to
25 kt expected during the afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease
at SLN/HUT/ICT near sunset but a strengthening LLJ across
central KS may allow for gusty winds to continue at GBD/RSL into
the overnight hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...BRF