195
FXUS63 KICT 010759
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
159 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms could affect central/south central Kansas late
tonight with a strong storm possible

- Strong to severe storms possible for Monday afternoon and evening

- Near normal temperatures for Wednesday into next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Dry and quiet weather conditions will be on tap for today with
daytime highs slightly above normal. Meanwhile current water vapor
satellite imagery shows a lead short wave over southern California
with the main upper-level wave over northern California. The lead
short wave will race northeast across the Rockies today then reach
western Kansas by late tonight. This will spark off elevated
showers/storms over western Kansas tonight which will then spread
east into central/south central Kansas between 3am-6am. Elevated
shear/instability combination is supportive for a few possible
strong storms late tonight. Otherwise the line of showers/storms
will continue to move slowly east Monday morning reaching southeast
Kansas in the afternoon. The environment east of the Kansas turnpike
could remain elevated with a few strong storms possible in the
afternoon. Otherwise the main focus area we will be monitoring for
surface based storm re-development is for locations west of a Salina
to Wichita, to Wellington line between 3pm-6pm. This is where high
resolution models(HREF/REFS) show increasing probabilities for storm
initiation. Surface-6km wind shear and 0-1km SRH are favorable for
organized storm development capable of producing severe weather with
a few tornadoes possible. Shear orientation vector is parallel to
initiating low level boundary which would cause storms to grow
upscale into a linear storm mode with damaging winds becoming the
main hazard. Once again the key thing to watch will be timing and
amount of clearing for the low clouds to help destabilize the
atmosphere. The line of storms will move east into southeast Kansas
during the evening hours on Monday.

Upper level wave will shift northeast into eastern Nebraska on
Tuesday with deformation wrap around rain showers in the morning
over central Kansas along with gusty northwest winds. Dry weather
expected on Wednesday with models showing another system racing east
across the central plains on Thursday. Moisture will be limited with
this system which keeps possible precipitation chances rather low.
Long range models are showing a healthy upper-level wave diving
southeast across the central plains on Saturday which could bring
another chance of rain to Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Aviation concerns will remain low clouds and some fog.

Low clouds are currently in place across the entire area and are
slowly starting to lower. A few sites are at IFR levels and still
expect all of them to be in a few hours. Still thinking a few
will drop to LIFR with the highest confidence for those west of
I-135. Should also see some 3-5sm fog develop at most sites in a
few hours, but confidence is high that we are not looking at
dense fog. Confidence is also increasing that low clouds will
linger longer on Sunday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL