639
FXUS63 KICT 011145
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog will be possible this morning, especially west of
  I-135

- Scattered showers and storms will continue today into the
  evening hours.

- Below normal temps will remain in place, with a reinforcing
  shot of cooler air arriving Wed evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Currently have a well defined upper impulse dropping south
across north-central Nebraska with another upper wave lifting
across the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, high pressure
continues to stretch across the Great Lakes region and into the
Upper/Mid Mississippi Valley.

Low levels remain very saturated and with some light upslope
flow very low ceilings and fog are starting to develop. Current
thinking is that areas west of I-135 will have the best chance
to see areas of fog through around 15z.

Upper impulse over Nebraska will continue to sink south today
and by this afternoon will be moving into north-central KS. This
will keep scattered showers and a few storms around. By early
this evening, upper energy will be tracking across southeast KS
and into eastern OK/AR by 12z Tue. So currently expecting precip
to gradually move out of the forecast area tonight as the wave
also sinks south. For the first time in the last several days,
not expecting any precip in the forecast for Tue, as surface
high pressure settles over the region.

By Wed afternoon, confidence remains high in a deep upper low
tracking out of Manitoba/western Ontario and moving into the
Western Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley. This will allow a
cold front to push south across the Plains, moving through the
forecast area late Wed afternoon into Wed evening. A few storms
will likely accompany the front as it moves south, with
widespread severe storms not anticipated. There is good model
agreement that another piece of energy will dive down the
backside of the upper trough on Thu and will allow highs in the
70s to remain for Thu into the weekend. Normal highs for this
time of year are in the mid and upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Main aviation concerns will be fog and low ceilings this morning
along with shower and storm chances today into the evening.

Widespread IFR and LIFR cigs are in place along and especially
west of I-135 with some fog also mixed-in at KRSL-KGBD. Fog
should last a few more hours before lifting with IFR/LIFR cigs
lasting a couple hours longer this morning. Scattered showers
will continue to affect southeast KS for the next few hours.
Showers and isolated storms are expected to increase in coverage
as the afternoon approaches, with the highest chances east of
I-135 this afternoon and early evening. Severe storms are not
expected with this activity.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL