928
FXUS63 KICT 271900
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
200 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Can`t rule out an isolated shower/storm later this afternoon
  and evening across the Flint Hills. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- Quiet Monday, then increasing rain chances beginning Tuesday
  and lasting into at least Thursday.

- Seasonably warm for most locations through Wednesday, then
  slightly cooler air arrives to close out the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon highlight weak
ridging over the Rockies and Plains as a potent mid/upper wave sits
just off the CA coast. Meanwhile, a low-level moisture plume spans
from the Gulf northward through the Missouri River Valley and
beyond. A surface high resides in IL.

Later this afternoon into the evening hours, daytime heating amid a
weakly-capped atmosphere may allow for an isolated storm or two over
locations along/east of the Flint Hills. Lack of forcing remains the
primary concern for coverage. However, considering PWs about 175%
of normal for this time of year, decided to hold low chances in
place as it wouldn`t be a surprise to see some development prior to
sundown.

As we move into the overnight hours, easterly winds settling in
across the forecast area on east will help advect rich low-level
moisture into the region. This moistening along with weak upslope
flow may allow for light drizzle and patchy fog into early Monday
morning across mainly the Flint Hills east and along/north of US-50.
There remains a bit of uncertainty as to whether this will make it
into south central KS at this time.

Quiet weather is expected for Monday with ridging remaining in
place. By late Monday night/Tuesday morning, the aforementioned
potent upper impulse will be located over the Desert Southwest.
Increasing low-level moisture transport ahead of this will allow for
showers and storms to develop over the area Tuesday morning into the
afternoon. As the mid/upper wave approaches and pulls in the
remnants of Hurricane Polo, coverage of showers and storms will
increase from the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains through
mid/late week. Details are still coming in to focus, though at this
time a majority of the deterministic/ensemble suite carry the
greatest rainfall totals to the northwest and southeast of the
forecast area. Still looking like the best chances for widespread
heavy rain for us will come Wednesday night into Thursday morning as
a cold front tied to upper energy tracking across the Canadian
Prairie slams southeast through the Central Plains. In addition to
this, models show the upper low cutting off over the Southern Plains
following its ejection out of the Rockies. This may keep lingering
rain chances over southeast KS heading into next weekend.

Regarding temperatures this coming week, afternoon highs ranging
from the middle 70s to the low/mid 80s are forecast through
Wednesday. Toward the back half of the week, the aforementioned cold
front may bring cooler temperatures (highs closer to 70 and lows in
the 50s) to the forecast area to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Moist easterly flow should support ceilings and possibly
visibilities as well to deteriorate tonight and persist into
Monday morning for most TAF sites. Only went MVFR to IFR for
now, but later shifts may need to consider going a bit lower,
especially for RSL and GBD.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...ADK