821
FXUS63 KICT 101118
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
618 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday
  with chances increasing that Thursday will also be very hot.

- Storm chances will increase Wednesday night through Friday,
  especially north of the forecast area, with chances slowly
  working further south for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Showers and storms developed several hours ago across southwest
Nebraska and northwest KS and have been dissipating as they
slowly track southeast. This activity has kicked out some
outflow that is currently pushing through northwest KS.
Additional storms are currently moving through northeast KS into
nw MO in an area of persistent 850mb moisture transport.
Convection should continue to weaken early this morning with
some of this activity potentially affecting areas along and
north of I-70 before sunrise.

The main question for today is whether convection and associated
cloud debris will be enough to limit extreme temps. Current
thinking is that there will be enough time for most of the area
to recover by this afternoon. So went ahead and ran with another
heat advisory for the entire area with the highest confidence in
reaching criteria, along and south of Highway 56. With winds
today not quite as veered out as Sunday, we may see slightly
higher dewpoints remain further west. Just like Sunday, Russell
will have the best chance to reach or break a max temp record
today. This is mainly because the period of record for Russell
doesn`t go back into the 1930s. Front will lift even further
north for Tue, leaving extreme heat in place across the entire
region, with all sites seeing highs at or over 100 degrees.
There`s a good chance we may need another heat advisory area
wide for Tuesday.

We will start to see a slight pattern change starting Wed as
some shortwave energy starts to dig across the Pacific
Northwest. At the same time an additional piece of energy will
track out of MB and into western Ontario. This will allow the
low level baroclinic zone to shift south and also allow some
weak upper perturbations to lift out of the Desert Southwest,
across the Rockies and out into the Central Plains. While this
will result in high likelyhood of an MCS tracking across the
Plains Wed night, confidence is high that it will unfortunately
stay north of the forecast area. So confidence remains high that
we are in for more extreme heat for Wed afternoon and early
evening.

Broad southwesterly upper flow for Thu into the weekend will
continue to allow a series of weak upper impulses to lift out
of the Desert Southwest and out into the Plains, bringing
continued MCS activity. The big question will be how far south
this activity makes it. Models right now agree on keeping most
of this activity north and west of the forecast area for Fri
and Sat, with increased chances for Sat night into Sun. So at
this time, it appears likely that extreme heat will stick
around for Thursday and possibly Friday for southern portions of
the forecast area. Best case scenario would be that continued
MCS activity north of us would push the cold front further
south, bringing more relief from the heat for the weekend.
However, confidence in this taking place isn`t that high at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Aviation concerns will remain minimal through the next 24 hours.

Some very light showers continue to linger across northwest into
central KS and will continue for the next few hours, possibly
affecting KRSL-KGBD. Expecting more mid and high clouds around
today, especially across central KS. However, confidence is high
that they will remain at VFR levels. South winds will also
remain in place through this TAF period, with some afternoon
gusts in the 20-25 mph range possible.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL