476
FXUS63 KICT 150400
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1100 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme heat lingering for much of southern and eastern KS through
  Saturday.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible late this afternoon  and
  evening, while persisting over the weekend and possible into
  Monday.

- More seasonable temperatures expected for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A stalled frontal boundary continues to bisect central Kansas with
extreme heat anticipated south of this boundary while more
seasonable values can be expected in it`s wake. Subtle convergence
along the sfc trough axis will continue to promote diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. The highest probabilities are expected to
arrive after 4 pm when the cap weakens. We continue to see a deeply
mixed pbl with inverted-v profiles on point soundings supporting
strong/damaging winds with the more robust updrafts.

The stalled boundary will linger over the area on Saturday setting
the stage for another day of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms. We will also see another day of excessive heat
over southern Kansas on Saturday. The boundary is expected to move
southward Saturday night into Sunday with more seasonable air
arriving across the area on Sunday. The post-frontal airmass will
be moist with lower 70 dewpoints leading to less capping during the
afternoon hours as a subtle wave moves over the area keeping some
low pops in the forecast, especially across southeast Kansas closer
to the frontal zone.

More seasonable air is expected across the area on Monday and we
maintained some low pops as we remain within a moist easterly post-
frontal upslope regime. A subtle shortwave trough may help trigger
some post-frontal diurnally driven storms on Monday but confidence
remains fairly low at this time.

The cooldown will be short-lived with rising heights/increasing
thickness supporting rising temperatures over much of the area on
Tue and possible Wednesday. Another progressive shortwave trough
racing eastward over the Northern Plains will drive a frontal
boundary southward into the Central Plains but this front may become
stationary leading to low confidence in temperatures on Wednesday.
This front may also provide a focus for showers and storms but
confidence in the timing remains low. If it arrives slower, the
chance for showers and storms may be delayed until Wed night with
cooler air arriving on Thu, a faster fropa would bring higher
probabilities for showers and storms to much of the area on
Wednesday. After another brief cooldown on Thu, moderating
temperatures are expected to return late in the week as the
mid/upper ridge amplifies over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A smattering of non-severe showers/thunderstorms will remain
possible through the night, mainly for GBD, SLN, and RSL,
although cannot rule out a stray shower/storm for ICT and HUT as
well. The culprits will be a convectively-induced mid-level
disturbance approaching from the west amidst seasonably rich
precipitable waters. Thinking this threat could linger past
sunrise. For late Saturday afternoon and evening, another round
of hit-or-miss thunderstorms is expected.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ048>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...ADK