345
FXUS63 KICT 241731
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions expected today and Tuesday. Heat indices
  between 105 and 110 expected during the afternoon hours each
  day.

- Isolated strong to marginally severe storms possible overnight
  tonight across central Kansas, then again late Tuesday
  afternoon through early Wednesday morning area-wide.

- Periodic rain chances from Wednesday night through Saturday
  night with the highest chances Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Water vapor satellite and upper air analysis shows a stout mid
to upper ridge across southern plains and Desert Southwest. This
is going to promote hot conditions across much of the central
and southern plains over the next couple of days. For today,
moisture mixing out should allow for temperatures to reach or
exceed 100 degrees this afternoon. However, just enough
moisture should remain to allow for much of the area to see heat
indices near or at 105. A subtle upper wave will skate over the
High Plains, and isolated storm development is possible this
evening across portions of western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. A couple of these storms could sneak into central Kansas
during the overnight hours. Should storms survive, the main
concern will be gusty winds. Additional storms could develop
Tuesday morning, along a mid-level baroclinic zone across
portions of northeast Kansas. This potential will introduce some
uncertainty for afternoon temperatures on Tuesday along and
northeast of a Salina-Marion-Chanute line.

Deterministic and ensemble models are signaling a hot and humid day
on Tuesday across much of the forecast area. Both the EPS and GEFS
show 850 mb temps and PWs over the 90-95th percentile for this
time of year. Surface temperatures will also be warmer ahead of
a sagging frontal boundary as compressional warming helps much
of the area rise into the upper 90s and low 100s despite higher
dewpoints. All in all, these conditions will result in
widespread heat indices between 105 and 109. Some areas across
south-central Kansas could see heat indices exceed 110, although
confidence on this outcome is low enough on this forecast cycle
that we elected to go with a heat advisory for Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, the aforementioned frontal
boundary will and associated subtle upper trough embedded in
northwest flow should be enough to trigger at least isolated
storms Tuesday night across northeast and central Kansas. Some
models also suggest storm development along a thermal trough or
remnant outflow boundary across portions of northern Oklahoma
and southern Kansas, but this aspect of the forecast has very
low confidence. Forecast soundings indicate copious amounts of
DCAPE. As a result, strong to marginally severe wind gusts are
going to be possible with any storm that develop. Storms should
gradually dissipate overnight Tuesday night as the front
continues south and east washes out.

Behind this frontal passage, temperatures are expected to be closer
to average for this time of year as weak to modest zonal flow
returns to the region. Subtle perturbations should allow for storm
development across the High Plains Wednesday and Thursday; however,
confidence is low if this activity can make it east enough to impact
portions of central and south-central Kansas. Friday evening through
Saturday night appears to be the region`s next best chances at
more widespread thunderstorms as another cold front sags into
the region. Though, there are lots of details to work out
between now and then, and the forecast for the beginning of the
weekend is subject to change.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF cycle with a strong ridge
overhead.  This will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms
for this TAF cycle minimal at best.  KRSL and KGBD are the most
likely terminals to see any convection but confidence is too low to
place it in the TAF at this time.  The main concern will be the high
temperatures and humidity which will push the density altitude into
the 4000-5000 ft range.  This could be an issue for density altitude
sensitive airframes this afternoon.  Tonight will be VFR with
lighter winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Record highs for Monday and Tuesday:

          Today (Record) | Today`s Highs

Wichita     103 (1980)         102
Salina      107 (1937)         103
Chanute     105 (1918)         100
Russell     110 (2012)         104

         Tuesday (Record)|Tuesday`s Highs

Wichita     107 (1911)         101
Salina      114 (1911)         101
Chanute     104 (1933)          97
Russell     108 (2012)         101

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...ELM
CLIMATE...ELM