768
FXUS63 KICT 142006
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances return to central Kansas late tonight into
  Tuesday morning, with increasing probabilities Tuesday
  afternoon through Wednesday morning across much of the area.

- Marginally severe storms and localized flooding are possible on
 Tuesday and Tuesday night.

- This weeks warmup will be followed by much cooler air arriving
  on Sunday into early next week with additional chances for
  showers and storms over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Isolated or widely scattered showers and storms have already
developed within the sfc trough axis across western KS. Some of this
activity could brush parts of our central KS counties through the
evening hours although the bulk of the activity is expected to
remain north and west of our area of concern. A shortwave trough
racing across the Northern Plains will drive a cold front south into
the area late tonight. This frontal boundary is progged to move
south and east across the area on Tuesday. That will result in
another hot day for areas ahead of the front which includes much of
southern and southeast KS where highs in the upper 90s/around 100
once again. Probabilities for showers and thunderstorms will
increase along and behind the front on Tuesday afternoon. PWATs over
2 inches are forecast to return to the area leading to efficient
rainfall with any storms that develop. MLCAPE of 1500+ combined with
30 knots of 0-6km shear may support some strong or marginally severe
storms although mid-lvl lapse rates appear rather marginal. This
activity could linger into the overnight hours as the LLJ noses into
south central and southeast KS with some mid-lvl waa persisting
across the area. Some showers could linger over parts of central KS
early on Wed before the heat builds back into the area during the
afternoon hours with above average temperatures anticipated.

The mid/upper ridge is expected to return on Thu-Fri bringing hot
and dry conditions to the area. A shortwave trough emerging from the
Rockies will bring increasing probabilities for showers and storms
to the area late Fri and Fri night with little relief from the heat.
Unsettled weather conditions may linger into Sat as the upper ridge
shifts eastward while a more robust shortwave trough moves over the
Northern Plains. This will eventually drive a strong cold front
southward over the area late Saturday into Sunday ushering in more
seasonable air through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Southwest winds gusting over 35 knots at times will be common
across our central KS terminals with some 10k-12k clouds. A
approaching frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms, most numerous over north central KS and parts of
NW KS this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, LLWS will develop
across the region late this evening and tonight as the low
level jet ramps up. Isolated or widely scattered showers and
storms will also remain possible across our central KS
terminals late this evening and tonight although most areas are
expected to remain dry. Looking ahead: Better chances for
showers and storms are expected to arrive tomorrow afternoon and
evening as the cold front surges southward through the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Hot and windy conditions will result in very high fire danger
along and west of I-135 late this afternoon through the early
evening hours. Southerly winds will be sustained at around
25-30 mph with gusts around 40-45 mph.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>051-067.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...JC