257
FXUS63 KICT 291743
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms are possible today, mainly along and
east of I-135. Additionally, heat indices may exceed 105 across
southern & southeast Kansas this afternoon.

- Additional periodic storm chances are forecast tonight
  through Friday morning. Thursday night into Friday morning
  appears to be the best chance for storms, with strong to
  marginally severe storms possible.

- Slightly cooler and quieter this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

     TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Early this morning, the much talked about mid/upper ridge remains
centered over New Mexico while a subtle shortwave trough slides
southeastward around the northwestern periphery of this ridge across
the central plains. Meanwhile, the LLJ is nosing into a modest mid-
level baroclinic zone draped across northern Kansas and southern
Nebraska. As a result, mid-level WAA is overspreading this
area, and the resultant ascent is supporting the development of
showers and storms early this morning across portions of
northern and northeastern Kansas. A few showers may develop
across central Kansas, but currently, coverage will likely
remain quite isolated this morning.

Throughout the day, the aforementioned weak shortwave trough will
continue to linger over Kansas as it lumbers south and east across
the region. Additionally, the primary axis of deep and rich moisture
will be placed over eastern Kansas with PWATs well over 2 inches
across areas along and east of I-135. With modest upper level
support, along with deep and rich moisture creating an uncapped
environment, isolated thunderstorms are possible generally along and
east of Salina-Wichita line this afternoon and evening. Given very
little shear (around 15 knots of 0-6 km shear), the expectation is
for this activity to be quite disorganized, and severe storms
appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. That being said, wet
microbursts could produce 40-50 mph wind gusts in very
localized areas. Another consequence of this rich moisture
returning to the region will be the high likelihood of locations
across southern and southeastern Kansas experiencing another
afternoon of heat indices exceeding 105.

With the loss of diurnal heating this evening, chances of showers
and storms will briefly decrease. However, additional shower and
thunderstorm development is anticipated overnight as widespread mid-
level WAA overspreads much of the area. Given the elevated nature of
this activity, and that instability will be fairly limited (under
1000 J/kg of MUCAPE), severe storms appear unlikely. The main
concerns for showers and storms overnight tonight into Thursday
morning will be brief heavy rainfall, occasional lightning strikes,
and maybe some locally gusty winds. This activity will linger
through much of Thursday morning, and may even last well into the
afternoon hours across far eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, a brief warm-
up will be felt across central and south-central Kansas with
increasing chances of another day with afternoon highs exceeding 100
degrees. It`s possible that heat indices could exceed 105 again
during the afternoon and evening hours, especially across south-
central Kansas.

Mid-range guidance continues to suggest a stronger shortwave trough
will dig into the northern and central plains Thursday evening
into Friday morning. As a result, more widespread showers and
storms are forecast Thursday night into Friday morning across
the entire forecast area. Despite warm mid-level temperatures
contributing to widespread convective inhibition, forcing for
ascent from the incoming upper trough along with a strengthening
LLJ should support the maintenance of thunderstorms during the
overnight hours as they sweep across Nebraska and most of
Kansas. There is still some uncertainty in the coverage of
storms the further south you go, and it`s possible portions of
far southern Kansas miss out on most, if not all, of the
rainfall. That being said, those who do see a storm late
Thursday night into Friday morning could see marginally severe
wind gusts up to 60 mph as well as some brief heavy rainfall.
Some of this activity could linger throughout the day on Friday
across far eastern Kansas, but coverage will be fairly isolated.
In the wake of the shower and thunderstorm activity, a more
robust cold front will sweep across the region on Friday;
however, afternoon highs will still manage to climb into the mid
to upper 90s. The cooler air finally arrives Friday night with
lows expected to drop into the 60s.

     SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Mid to long range deterministic and ensemble model guidance suggests
the upper level pattern will be momentarily locked in for a
couple of days this weekend with troughing across the eastern
CONUS, and a strong ridge parked over the Desert Southwest. This
will put Kansas awkwardly in the middle of these features with
northerly upper flow remaining quite persistent through the
weekend. At the surface, a secondary surge of relatively cooler
air is forecast to arrive on Saturday, and this should keep
temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees below average this weekend.
Going into early next week, mid to long range guidance continues
to show a more ill-defined pattern across the central CONUS.
However, it does appear that slight increases in heights aloft
should support a gradual warming of temperatures through the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Isolated showers and storms will remain possible this afternoon
as a subtle system moves slowly toward the area. Additional
storm activity may drift eastward from western Kansas with some
new development possible after 03-04Z across parts of central
and south central Kansas. Winds will remain out of the ESE
around 5 to 15 knots although a few higher gusts will be
possible during the afternoon hours at times.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-083-
091>093-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MWM