497
FXUS63 KICT 190540
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms possible tonight, especially across northeast Kansas.

- Brief "cool-down" for Wednesday into Thursday with heat
  returning for Friday and especially the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Complex of storms tracked out of southern Nebraska and across
northeast KS this morning. This MCS kicked out an outflow
boundary that currently stretches from just north of Great Bend
to near Newton and to south of Eureka and has remained nearly
stationary for the last few hours. Meanwhile, surface low
pressure is situated north of KDDC.

Will have to monitor the area northeast of the surface low and
along the boundary late this afternoon and early evening to see
if any convection can develop. There is some agreement in some
of the CAMS in development after 22z near or just south of I-70.
Main concern with these storms would be downburst winds given
high DCAPE. The more widespread storm activity looks to develop
after 03z across northeast KS as low level jet strengthens with
good convergence and 850-700mb moisture transport setting up
over northeast KS. There is a chance some of this may skirt our
far northeast fringes. There is also a chance that some
convection may develop over northwest KS late, in response to
an approaching upper impulse, and track southeast overnight,
possibly reaching central KS toward sunrise. Current thinking is
that this activity would be weakening as it approaches our
forecast area.

Cold front will push through the area on Wed as upper shortwave
moves from the Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
This will bring some relief from the extreme heat with highs in
the upper 80s across central KS and mid 90s near the KS/OK
border. We may see some lingering morning convection across
mainly central KS into the Flint Hills near or north of the
front as it pushes south. Will go ahead and leave mention of
precip out for now for Thu, but will insert some for Thu night
as high shifts far enough east to allow elevated moisture to
return across central and northern KS.

For Fri into Sat, upper ridge will strengthen over the
Central/Southern Rockies and will unfortunately bring back
hotter temperatures. There is some agreement in shortwave energy
tracking across southern Canada for Sat night into Sun but will
not track far enough south to push any cooler air into the area.
So currently looking for upper 90s for Fri with much of the area
back to 100 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through most of
the period. Showers and storms currently observed across the High
Plains are expected to arrive in portions of central KS later this
morning, and associated heavy rainfall may result in temporary MVFR
vsbys. Tried to time out this arrival with VCSH/-TSRA mentions at
GBD/RSL/SLN, though this timing may change as further trends are
realized. Currently not expecting -TSRA to make it to south central
or southeast sites so held with VCSH for this cycle. Activity should
depart most locations by late morning or early afternoon.

Otherwise, mainly northerly winds are forecast throughout the period
behind a cold front passing through the area. Speeds throughout the
daytime hours should remain below 12 kts, though slightly stronger
winds may be observed just behind the boundary early this
morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK