047
FXUS63 KICT 251919
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
219 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances will increase for Thursday afternoon
  and evening with some strong storms and heavy rain possible.

- Hit-or-miss showers/storms possible for Friday through the
  weekend.

- Drier conditions and slightly below normal temperatures are
  expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Currently, some scattered showers persist across the Kansas/Colorado
border, mostly clear skies continue over central Kansas, and a cu
field has developed across eastern Kansas. Kansas is sandwiched
between two main areas of development this afternoon/evening. The
weak impulse over the Rockies and the relatively uncapped
environment across eastern Kansas. The impulse over the Rockies
coupled with a substantial moisture plume has maintained showers in
the High Plains this morning. This activity will eventually push
slightly eastward, allowing a rouge storm or two to move into the
western most portions of the forecast area.  Meanwhile across
eastern Kansas, a cu field has developed generally east of the I-135
where the environment remains largely uncapped and instability is
elevated. This environment will support a few isolated, transient
thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening.

Moving forward into Thursday, the disturbance will continue to push
eastward leading to additional shower and thunderstorm chances
across central and eastern Kansas during the afternoon and evening
hours. Shear will continue to remain weak, 20kts, but substantial
instability, 2500-3000 J/kg, will support thunderstorms capable of
producing damaging wind gusts. In addition to the wind threat, above
normal PWATs in excess of 2 inches will be in place. This moisture,
coupled with the lack of shear and resulting slow-moving
thunderstorms, will lead to heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

For Friday into this weekend, moisture and instability will remain
in place across the eastern half of Kansas though we will lack in
any real forcing across the area. Some weak mid-level impulses will
move across the region allowing minor convection to develop in the
relatively uncapped/weakly capped environment. Widespread severe
weather and significant rainfall is not anticipated with this
activity. Then on Sunday night into Monday, a shortwave will move
into the northern portion of the U.S. dragging an associated weak
frontal boundary across the Central Plains. This will lead to
slightly better rain chances on Sunday night into Monday morning.
High pressure will build in behind the front leading to drier
conditions along with temperatures that will be a few degrees below
normal for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

Diurnal cu has developed across a large portion of the area this
afternoon, but ceilings are expected to remain VFR. Winds will
continue out of the south at around 10 to 15 knots with gusts
around 20 to 30 knots this afternoon. Wind gusts should subside
after sunset.

While not explicitly mentioned in this set of TAFs, it should be
noted that the development of widely scattered showers and
storms is expected after 18Z Thursday afternoon across a large
part of the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JC