409
FXUS63 KICT 270442
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1142 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers/thunderstorms this evening through early Sunday,
  mainly over eastern KS.

- Fog possible later tonight through early Sunday central to
  north-central KS.

- Additional isolated storm chances possible late Sunday.

- Potential for a prolonged period of off-and-on
  showers/thunderstorms Tuesday through week`s end. Increasing
  flooding concerns will be the main risk during this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

FOG:

A decoupling boundary layer in vicinity of a weak surface trough
amidst a moist airmass and moist soils should support patchy to
areas of fog later tonight into Sunday morning across central and
north-central Kansas, mainly west of a line extending from Lincoln
to Lyons. Evening-night shifts will need to monitor for possible
dense fog.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:

THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...Expecting areas of rain and embedded rumbles
of thunder to continue exiting eastern KS to the east this
afternoon, just ahead of shortwave energy traversing the region.
Brief heavy rain will be the primary hazard.

LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...By late this afternoon and early evening,
can`t rule out a few isolated thunderstorms generally along/west of
Interstate 135, just ahead of a subtle surface trough. Convergence
and upper forcing look rather weak (could even prove subsident in
wake of current wave), and model soundings suggest the potential for
some capping issues, so chances are low. However, if an isolated
storm can get going, strong instability coupled with marginal deep
layer shear would support a localized hail/wind threat.

THIS EVENING--EARLY SUNDAY...Modest 850-600mb warm advection and
moisture transport ahead of a weak mid-level trough approaching from
the northwest should support a modest uptick in shower/thunderstorm
coverage (although probably not widespread), generally east-
southeast of the KS Turnpike. Some directional component to the deep
layer shear coupled with modest elevated instability may support a
locally strong storm along with brief heavy rain.

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...May see a few isolated
thunderstorms once again across portions of central, south-central,
and southeast KS, in vicinity of a weak surface trough amidst a
moist and weakly capped airmass. Once again, decent instability and
marginal shear may support a locally strong to severe thunderstorm,
but activity should remain fairly isolated. There is some CAM
support for this isolated activity.

TUESDAY--WEEK`S END...Attention then turns to the potential for a
prolonged period of off-and-on showers/thunderstorms, as a strong
and slow-moving upper trough approaches from the west. Precipitable
waters are forecast to be a staggering 4-5+ standard deviations
above average, owing to remnants of Eastern Pacific tropical systems
getting absorbed into this approaching system. Additionally, there
will be some instability present as well. Consequently, a multi-day
off-and-on heavy rainfall event looks increasingly likely across the
region, with deterministic and ensemble consensus supporting multi-
day rainfall amounts of 1-3+ inches (locally higher). This may
support increasing flooding concerns, including river/stream
flooding. Furthermore, increasing shear and forcing may also support
a few rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. There still remains
quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding finer synoptic details, which
will impact the magnitude, location, and timing of heaviest
rainfall. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming
days.

TEMPERATURES:

Mostly seasonable to seasonably warm temperatures are forecast
through about Tuesday, switching to seasonably cool to below average
temperatures thereafter due to the potential for widespread
clouds and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Scattered showers and storms are lingering across southeast
Kansas likely impacting the KCNU terminal through 09-10Z where
some transient MVFR cigs will remain possible. Some activity
may linger into the morning hours across far southeast Kansas.
Meanwhile, light easterly winds are anticipated during the
predawn hours leading to some fog development in parts of
central Kansas or along the Hwy 14 corridor leading to some IFR
ceilings and visibilities in the 11Z-14Z timeframe. Higher
probabilities for dense fog are expected to remain further north
with some mixing lingering through a good portion of the night.
We could see some afternoon showers and storms return to parts
of southeast KS as we remain within a moist and weakly capped
airmass. Light easterly winds are expected to prevail across the
area on Sunday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MWM