452
FXUS63 KICT 261907
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
207 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions are expected through Tuesday with heat indices
  between 105 to 113 possible each afternoon into the early
  evening.

- Low chances for showers and storms will return early Tuesday
  morning and continue through the end of the next week with the
  best chances during the overnight hours each night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A strong upper ridge is over much of the Plains with the ridge axis
extending from the Northern Plains to the Central Plains. An upper
high is developing over portions of the Central and Southern Plains.
In our area, high temperatures have risen into the low 100s with
dewpoints in the low 70s, resulting in heat indices exceeding 110
across the area. As we continue into tonight and Monday morning, low
temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of
year with lows near 80. The upper-level pattern will be consistent
with today for Monday as the upper ridge axis sits over the Plains
with an upper high expanding over much of the Central and Southern
Plains. Above normal 850 mb temperatures are progged with the ECMWF
showing an 850 mb temperature anomaly between 5-8 C and the GFS
between 8-13 C. While dewpoints will be slightly lower, they will
likely still range from the low 60s in central KS to low 70s in
southeast KS. High temperatures will likely be warmer than today
especially for areas along and west of I-135, where its possible for
these highs to outperform the current forecast and be closer to 110.
Heat indices will approach or exceed 110 across much of the area. As
such, the Extreme Heat Warning has been extended through 9 PM
Monday.

The upper ridge will break down Monday night into Tuesday as
embedded shortwaves start to ride the upper ridging. A weak cold
front will push south through the Northern/Central Plains and into
northern Kansas by Tuesday morning. Storms are progged to develop
off the High Plains and move eastward into Nebraska and possibly
northern Kansas during the overnight hours into early Tuesday
morning. Rain chances in central KS are around or below 25% with
chances remaining very low for areas south of I-70. There is still
uncertainty with the coverage of storms and how far south storms
will actually progress in Kansas due to very warm 700 mb
temperatures. Slightly cooler 850 mb temperatures and easterly
surface winds will result in high temperatures ranging from the mid
90s in central KS to the lower 100s in southern KS. Dewpoints will
return to the upper 60s to lower 70s, keeping heat indices between
100-105 across much of the region. Some areas in south-central to
southeast KS are likely to see heat indices exceed 105 degrees. As
such, a Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM Tuesday.

Additional rain chances will be possible late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as another weak shortwave trough slides across the
region with 700 mb WAA aiding in chances for widely scattered
storms. These chances are likely to linger across portions of
eastern KS on Wednesday morning with chances decreasing towards
Wednesday afternoon. Even with the upper ridge breaking down
slightly over the Central Plains, high temperatures will remain in
the 90s across the region. Rain chances will again be possible
during the overnight hours on Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
and then likely again Thursday night into Friday due to weak
shortwaves being embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft.
Severe weather chances with any of this activity continue to
remain unlikely given the weak flow aloft over the Central
Plains. The upper-level ridge axis will shift westward towards
the Central Great Basin and Desert Southwest late in the work
week, keeping much of the Plains in northwesterly flow aloft
through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours across central,
south-central, and southeast Kansas.

The only aviation hazard will be breezy south winds this
afternoon through early evening, as lee troughing remains
anchored over the High Plains.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...ADK