089
FXUS63 KICT 242259
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
559 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On-and-off showers and storms expected through early Saturday.
  A handful of strong to marginally-severe storms are possible,
  though the greater risk at this time appears to be locally
  heavy rainfall.

- Storm chances return Saturday afternoon/evening, with strong
  to severe activity possible.

- Dry Sunday and Monday, then a storm system arrives on Tuesday
  that may bring additional severe/flooding concerns.

- Seasonably warm Saturday through Monday, then a return of
  seasonably cool temperatures by middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis early this afternoon depict a
mid/upper wave shifting northeast over the Desert Southwest as a
secondary speed max resides near the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Showers and weak storms continue to make their way to the northeast
through portions western and central Kansas (primarily west of I-
135) within a rich PW axis. These will continue and shift east
heading into the overnight hours amid broad synoptic ascent from the
approaching jet and persistent low-level theta-e advection.
Additionally, short-term guidance highlights increasing instability
later this afternoon and early evening over far south central Kansas
(generally along/west of K-14). At the least, this will allow for
locally heavy rainfall in the strongest cells considering PWs
progged at 200% of normal for this time of year, though 20-25 kts of
deep-layer shear may allow for some storm organization and perhaps
some strong to marginally severe wind gusts prior to sunset. This
threat will shift east to include locations primarily along and west
of I-135 on Friday, though for both today and Friday we are not
expecting widespread severe storms.

Activity will continue through Friday night into Saturday as the
upper wave ejects out of the Rockies and into the Plains. At the
same time, a frontal boundary will track out of western Kansas and
push eastward into central Kansas. Clearing skies ahead of this
boundary will allow for increasing instability and weak capping
across portions of central and south central Kansas, and ~30 kts of
deep-layer shear may allow for more strong to severe thunderstorms
through the afternoon and evening hours. The positioning of the mid-
level wave does throw some uncertainty into this setup, however,
with much of the global suite suggesting a more progressive track
and widespread subsidence throughout the region amid increasing
heights in its wake. This would put a damper on storm development
Saturday afternoon, though considering the instability in place, it
will be hard to rule out a few strong to severe storms at this time.

Quieter weather is forecast Sunday into Monday as the upper wave
departs the region. This break will be short-lived, however, as
global models carry another wave into the region by late Monday
night. This will bring more chances for widespread showers and
storms to the forecast area with the potential for locally heavy
rainfall/flooding should trends continue to slow the wave`s
progression. Stay tuned as additional details come into focus.

In regards to temperatures, areas under abundant cloud coverage
should see seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures (highs in the
middle 70s to near 80) through Friday, while locations that see some
clearing will warm into the middle 80s. These slightly warmer
temperatures will overspread the entire area Saturday through Monday
as layer thicknesses increase in the wake of Saturday`s storms.
Highs ranging from the middle 70s to near 80 will return Tuesday
with the arrival of the next storm system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be the
primary hazard over the upcoming 24-hours.

For our central Kansas terminals we could see of IFR/LIFR
ceilings develop at times between shower activity. Easterly
winds in central Kansas may begin to veer to the southeast as we
move through the night, keeping higher probabilities for low
ceilings north of our area. Shower and storm activity will
linger into Friday as we remain within a moist airmass with
southeast winds gusting to 15 or 20 knots at times, highest in
central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM