501
FXUS63 KICT 130854
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
354 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry conditions expected this week

- An active weather pattern is likely to emerge this weekend,
  increasing the potential for showers and storms; severe storms
  are possible as well

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

As of 345 AM Tuesday morning, the stubborn cutoff low across the
southeast US is moving to the northeast as midlevel ridging builds
across the central CONUS. Further west, a trough axis has come
ashore with cyclonic flow overspreading the central and northern
high Plains. As a result, a deepening surface trough axis extends
from eastern CO through central ND. In response to the deepening
surface trough, southerly winds will increase through the afternoon
across central and eastern KS with gusts up to 25 mph. Afternoon
temperatures will increase a few degrees when compared to Monday
with highs reaching the mid-80s for most locations.

Transitioning into Wednesday, the shortwave ridge axis will slide
overhead with temperatures surging into the upper 80s/low 90s. On
the heels of the ridge axis, an initial shortwave trough is progged
to eject from eastern CO through northern KS and eastern NE late
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The shortwave trough track will
unfortunately keep the rain chances north of central and eastern KS.
By Thursday morning, a Pacific front/dryline will slide through the
area, shifting winds to the west and northwest. Beyond Thursday,
ensemble probabilities continue to increase for measurable rainfall
Saturday night through Monday night. In addition to the rainfall
potential, confidence continues to increase for the overlap of
moderate/strong instability and favorable wind profiles for severe
storms during this same timeframe. The severe storm potential
continues to be supported via EPS and GEFS severe convection
probabilities, especially during the afternoon and evening hours of
Sunday and Monday. Stay tuned for forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Aviation concerns are still expected to remain minimal through
this TAF period.

Lee troughing is slowly starting to strengthen over the High
Plains which will allow winds to say out of the southeast. We
are expecting wind speeds to increase after 15z Tue with some
gusts in the 20-25KT range likely at most sites. While we may
see some high clouds increase Tue afternoon/early evening,
confidence is high that they will stay at VFR levels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Record High Temperature Information for May 14th:

Site:      Forecast:      Record:

Wichita      93           94 (2018)

Salina       93          101 (1941)

Chanute      91           91 (2022)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL
CLIMATE...BRF/JWK