958
FXUS63 KICT 161949
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
249 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible this evening to
  overnight along the cold front.

- Brief cooldown on Thursday with additional shower and storm
  chances.

- Hot and humid conditions starting Friday into mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Currently, a cold front is draped along I-70 in eastern Kansas with
the western extent positioned along Highway 56. This front will
slowly start pushing south late this afternoon into this evening.
Isolated to scattered storms could develop along the front this
evening in central Kansas as instability increases from low-level
moisture advection, though uncertainty is high. As this front pushes
further south tonight into the overnight hours, chances for showers
and storms slightly increase across our area. Confidence is low on
storm coverage due to the loss of surface heating and marginal
forcing from this frontal boundary.

On Thursday, this front will likely stall near the KS/OK border
leaving a moist airmass with dewpoints in the 70s in south-central
to southeast Kansas. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to
lower 90s. With strong instability expected, showers and storms are
possible mainly in southern Kansas, but there is uncertainty with
the position of the front. Given PWATS will be around the daily max
and values of DCAPE are between 500-1000 J/kg, storms that develop
will likely be capable of strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain.
The best chances would be in the afternoon and will decrease towards
Thursday night.

On early Friday morning, the front will lift back north as a warm
front into the area returning southerly flow at the surface. As our
area becomes more influenced by the weak upper-level ridge on Friday
into the weekend, thickness will continue to increase. High
temperatures will return back to the mid 90s on Friday and continue
to warm. As embedded weak ripples continue to ride the upper-level
ridge, low chances of rain showers and storms will be possible
through the weekend mainly in Central Kansas. Starting Saturday to
middle of next week, high temperatures will continue to be in the
mid 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the entire area this afternoon
prior to a slowly moving cold front approaching from the
northwest. Models suggest thunderstorm development along the
front late this afternoon or early evening in central Kansas
with storms then impacting all sites overnight as the cold front
slowly moves southeast although confidence is not high regarding
this scenario. Southerly winds will be gusty but not overly
strong and will gradually shift to the northeast behind the
front.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...SGS