496
FXUS63 KICT 290503
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1103 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong cold front set to move through Saturday with some light
  snow possible across central KS.

- Strong northwest winds behind the front on Saturday with gusts
  in the 40 to 45 mph range possible.

- Snow likely Monday with much of the area seeing their first
  measurable snowfall of the season. Some travel impacts will be
  possible during the day Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Upper impulse is evident on water vapor imagery tracking across the
Northern Intermountain and is about to move into the Central
Rockies. Meanwhile, shortwave trough is lifting out of the
Northeast CONUS. Lee troughing continues to strengthen over
Eastern CO with return flow also ramping-up across the Plains.

Upper impulse will continue tracking southeast and will move out
into the High Plains late tonight into Sat morning. Ahead of this
feature, we are still looking for low level theta-e advection
increasing which will ramp-up rain chances tonight, especially
southeast of the KS Turnpike where 850-700mb moisture transport
will be maximized. By 12z Sat, cold front will extend from
southeast Nebraska through central and western KS. It will
rapidly surge south and will move through Wichita in the 15-18z
time frame. As colder air moves-in on Sat, some of the precip
will turn over to light snow across central KS, with
accumulation still expected to be north and especially northeast
of our forecast area. With light snow and strong northwest
winds, there is a small chance that we may see a brief reduction
in visibility near I-70 Sat morning. Will go ahead and run with
a wind advisory for Sat along and west of I-135 with northwest
winds behind the front sustained around 30 mph with some gusts
in the 40-45 mph range.

Coldest air of the season will overspread the region behind the
front with single digit wind chills likely early Sun morning
with highs on Sun struggling to make it above freezing.
Attention will then turn to another shortwave forecast to impact
the region to start the work week.

This next shortwave will take a very similar track to the current
one, moving out of the Northern Intermountain Sun and into the
Southern Rockies late Sun night into early Mon morning. Snow will
likely start late Sun night over western KS as isentropic lift
increases with snow working east through the day Monday. Models
have been consistent showing an impressive area of mid level
frontogenesis working through KS during the day Mon along with
most of the lift in the prime snow growth region. As far as
precip type goes, we are looking at all snow through the event.
GFS has been trending north with the last few runs with the
ECMWF also showing this trend, which would place the higher snow
totals across central KS. At this point it`s looking like an
advisory level event with a good portion of our forecast area
seeing it`s first measurable snowfall of the season.

We will transition to a split flow pattern for the remainder of
the work week with some energy digging across the Southwest
CONUS with some additional shortwave energy tracking across
southern Manitoba into Ontario. This will likely keep below
normal temperatures in place for Tue through Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Cloud bases continue to slowly lower at all sites this evening
with MVFR ceilings expected at all sites within the first
several hours of this TAF period. Ceilings will rapidly lower
early Saturday morning into IFR conditions. This is all thanks
to an approaching area of low pressure that is currently across
northwest Kansas. Ahead of this low some rain showers have begun
to develop and showers are expected to expand in coverage as we
go through the morning hours.

The other concern is LLWS for SLN, HUT, ICT, and CNU as winds
about 1000 ft AGL are cranking around 50 kts out of the
southwest while surface winds are mostly out of the southeast
around 15 kts. As the surface low gets closer to the region it
will shift the strongest winds aloft to the east so LLWS will
come to an end from west to east through early Saturday morning.
This low will also bring a strong cold front through the region
Saturday morning switching winds around to the northwest and
increasing sustained winds to 20-30 kts with gusts near 40 kts.

Behind the cold front, ceilings will slowly rise through the day
with VFR conditions returning for all sites by the late
afternoon. Winds will also slowly diminish towards the end of
this TAF period.




&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...WI