875
FXUS63 KICT 201145
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures expected through the
  forecast period.

- While there will be small storm chances each night through
  most of the forecast, there still isn`t a good signal for high
  chances of more widespread rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Currently, mid/upper level ridging is centered over the Desert
Southwest with a trough over the Great Lakes region and extending
across the Northeast US. At the surface, a couple of weak boundaries
have passed over the region helping to moderate temperatures some.
Some convection continues across western KS early this morning as
WAA interacts with the boundary draped across the High Plains.

Looking forward through the upcoming forecast time frame, we`re
going to remain in much of the same synoptic pattern. The ridge will
remain centered over the Desert Southwest and occasionally build
into the Rockies. The Plains will remain under primarily
northwesterly flow with periodic shortwaves and perturbations in the
pattern grazing the forecast area and helping to push the ridge
further south.

TEMPERATURES:

Temperatures over the next 7 days will be relatively stable, leaning
slightly above normal for this time of year. Across the forecast
area, normal highs this time of year are right around 90 degrees
with lows generally in the upper 60s. With the current and upcoming
pattern, we`re going to remain largely influenced by the ridge with
above normal heights leading to above normal temperatures. With the
ridge axis to our west, light southeasterly winds will dominate.
Highs will reach into the 90s for most across the forecast area,
with those further north and east (further removed from the ridge
center) seeing primarily lower 90s and those in south-central Kansas
frequently reaching into the upper 90s. As perturbations in the
pattern and shortwaves traverse the region, subtle shifts in
temperatures will occur. Overall, highs will generally reach 5-8
degrees above normal each day (lower to upper 90s) with lows
remaining 2-5 degrees above normal (upper 60s, lower 70s).

PRECIPITATION:

As the region and the forecast area remain on the northeast
periphery of the ridge and under mid/upper level northwesterly
flow, mostly dry conditions will persist. However, as the
aforementioned shortwaves skim the area, they will open up the
opportunity for isolated showers and storms. The area will
remain under low-level southeasterly flow which will help to
maintain a relatively moist airmass. PWATs across eastern Kansas
will remain in the 1.25-1.75" range with dewpoints steady in the
middle to upper 60s through the forecast time frame. Much of
the rain and storm activity we`ll see will be nocturnal in
nature, deriving from diurnally driven convection that develops
along boundaries to our north. These storms will follow the
moisture axis into northern and eastern portions of Kansas
during the overnight hours, before diminishing. Confidence
remains low on overall coverage of storms as any activity will
be highly dependent on small wiggles in the synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Low clouds will impact central and southeastern Kansas sites
this morning through around 14Z. Brief reductions in visibility
will also be possible with this activity.

Otherwise, light northeasterly winds will turn easterly
throughout the day and then become southeasterly for all sites
overnight. There is an isolated chance for a stray shower or
thunderstorm after 06Z for central and southeastern Kansas, but
due to very low confidence, have left it out of the TAF for now.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD