810
FXUS63 KICT 111140
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
540 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Max temps today around 15 degrees above normal, with
  widespread 60s and some 70s even a possibly for areas west of
  I-135.

- Cool down will commence on Friday with the main surge of very
  cold air moving-in Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
  Highs on Sunday are not expected to make it above freezing.

- We quickly get back to above normal temperatures for most of
  next week with the dry conditions continuing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Currently have a shortwave trough stretching from Eastern
Ontario, through the Eastern Great Lakes region and into the
Appalachians. This leaves strong northwest flow through the
Plains. At the surface, high pressure stretches through the
Mississippi Valley with lee troughing from eastern WY into
eastern CO.

A series of upper perturbations, currently located over southern
BC/southern Alberta, will track southeast and will be moving
into the Mid Mississippi Valley by early this evening. As this
occurs, lee troughing will continue to strengthen, allowing
west and southwest downslope winds to overspread the forecast
area this afternoon. Strong downslope will combine with
unseasonably warm 850mb temps to boost maxes today into the 60s
and around 70 for areas west of I-135 where mixing will be
deeper. The record at KRSL will be in jeopardy today as it
currently stands at 66 degrees.

As the weak upper impulse continues to slide southeast, some
cold air will start to spill south across the Plains on Fri.
However, this is not going to be an abrupt cold surge, but
rather a gradual cool-down with the more significant cold air
still way north of the forecast area. There is good model
agreement that a more robust upper impulse will track out of
western Ontario and into the Northern Great Lakes by Sat
morning. At the same time a fast moving piece of energy will
track from Southern SK into the Upper Mississippi Valley. This
will allow a much colder airmass to surge south for Sat
afternoon through Sat night. We are still looking for highs on
Sun to not make it above freezing, with some of our eastern
areas not making it out of the 20s.

Pattern will remain very progressive as the shortwave trough
tracks off of the East Coast by Sun evening, getting the Plains
back into northwest flow aloft. This will quickly push the
colder air east with slightly above normal temps forecast for
Mon with highs back into the 50s by Tue. The week upper impulse
that was expected to move out across the Southern Plains on Tue
has now taken a more southerly track. So still not looking for
any precip through the next 7 days and likely beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Surface low pressure is expected to strengthen over northwest
KS/southwest Nebraska today and will turn winds around to the
west by this afternoon. Scattered high clouds will be in place
today with high confidence they will remain at VFR levels. This
evening, winds will come around to the north as a cold front
slowly moves through the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL