909
FXUS63 KICT 031731
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1131 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder air spreads south for today and Thursday with possible
  sprinkles/snow flurries today, no weather impacts expected

- Single digit wind chills for early Thursday morning

- Dry weather slated for several days across the region with warmer
  temperatures for early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Current early morning surface analysis shows leading edge of
southward moving polar air approaching South Dakota/Nebraska border.
The polar air will spread into northern/central Kansas by this
afternoon and continue to move south tonight. Areas of semi-
low level saturation ahead and just behind the polar front today
could yield sprinkles/snow flurries, however dry air advection
quickly overtakes this semi-low level moistening during the
night time hours from north to south thus ending the light
precipitation chances. Winds chills will drop into the single
digits by early Thursday morning along with colder daytime highs
in the 30s. Temperatures rebound for Friday and Saturday with
the dry weather pattern continuing and near normal daytime
highs.

Saturday night into Sunday there are vast differences between GFS,
Canadian, and ECMWF models with the handling of a upper level wave
diving southeast across the Rockies then ejecting out into
Oklahoma/northern Texas. GEFS ensemble trends does show this 500mb
wave with a slight slow down/deepening. The GFS model is way more
enthusiastic with its 850mb-700mb warm air advection signal
compared to ECMWF/Canadian models. We will continue to watch
model trends for this period since upper level waves that dive
southeast across the Rockies and emerge out into
Oklahoma/northern Texas with a noticeable deepening phase
typically yield interesting winter weather setups for our area.
At this time, it is a low confidence forecast given the vast
model differences. The better precipitation signal for all
models during this period still favors locations east of Kansas
mainly across Missouri. Heading into early next week long range
models are showing a warmer weather pattern with upper level
ridge amplifying over the Rockies and gradually shifting east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

SCT-BKN MVFR clouds will gradually spread south across the area
this afternoon and evening, as cold advection commences in wake
of a cold front. Breezy/gusty north-northeast winds will also be
common in wake of the front. Thinking the MVFR conditions will
gradually give way to VFR conditions from north to south this
evening, as drier low-level air moves in.

Precipitation-wise, cannot rule out patchy light snow flurries
and/or sprinkles, mainly from late this afternoon through the
first half of the night areawide, and then again over southern
Kansas Thursday, as shortwave energy approaching from the west
interacts with the deep cold frontal zone across the Heartland.
This activity will be very light, with absolutely no snow
accumulation or adverse impacts expected due to weak lift and
very limited moisture.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK