853
FXUS63 KICT 280753
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
253 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances starting to increase across the area
  on Tuesday with chances increasing for Tuesday night through
  Thursday. Heavy rain and flooding still looks likely with the
  more intense convection through this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows a deep upper low just off of the
Eastern Seaboard with another upper low coming onshore over Central
CA. Meanwhile, weak upper ridging is in place through the
Plains and last but not least, Polo is still churning just off
of southern Baja.

Just like early Sun morning, we are looking for another round of fog
across northwest into central KS this morning. The main
question will be how far east the more dense fog makes it and
for now will keep with the thinking that locations along and
west of Highway 14 will have the best chance to see the lower
visibilities.

Still looking for weak upper ridging to keep things dry across the
area today. By 12z Tue, upper low will be moving into the
Desert Southwest and will allow very rich moisture to stream
north from the Gulf and overspread the Southern/Central Plains.
At the same time, Polo looks to quickly get pulled northeast
across northern Mex. Bulk of the precip is expected to stay to
our northwest for Mon night into Tue morning with showers and
storms starting to affect the forecast area by Tue afternoon
into Tue night, with the most widespread activity northwest of
the KS Turnpike. The main driver for this round of heavy
rainfall will be tied to strong 850mb convergence with a strong
surge of mid level moisture late Tue night as the
energy/moisture from Polo moves into western/central KS.

By 12z Wed, upper low will be centered over western NM with a sfc
low near the OK Panhandle and a surface trough extending from
eastern NE into the surface low. This area of convergence will
continue to be a focus for heavy rain. However, as the upper
low continue to push east into the High Plains, a secondary area
of heavy rain will develop Wed afternoon through Wed night.
This will be associated with a rapid increase in 850-700mb
moisture transport which will be focused from southern OK into
southeast KS/sw MO. Models remain consistent in showing extreme
PW amounts for the Tue-Thu time frame which leads to high
confidence in very high rainfall rates and risk for flooding
with the more intense convection.

ECMWF has come into somewhat better agreement with the GFS regarding
how the upper energy is handled beyond Thu. They both now pull some
of the energy northeast and shear it out as a shortwave trough
slides across Southern Canada into Ontario. This would push the
better precip chances south of the forecast area for Fri afternoon
through the weekend. Previous runs of the ECMWF were lingering
the upper energy much further north to start the weekend, which
would result in a much wetter forecast. This will be something
to keep an eye on as models could still change.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

We continue to see a moist easterly flow across the area with
low dewpoint depressions late this evening. Considerable clouds
in the 4-7k ft level may minimize fog across much of eastern
Kansas but it will be hard to rule out some patchy fog where
clearing occurs. Some patchy fog will remain possible during the
predawn hours in central KS although higher probabilities may
remain north and west of our area. We could also see a transient
period of low cigs in central KS but VFR is expected to return
by 15-16Z. Light easterly winds will become southeast on Monday
with speeds around 10 knot at times.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM