183
FXUS63 KICT 050357
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1057 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds this afternoon into tonight, with stronger gusts
  up to 40 mph possible in central KS after sunset.

- Rain chances arrive Sunday night and last into Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures arrive Monday/Tuesday, then a slight
  warming trend to close out the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis early this afternoon
indicate strong southwest flow aloft out ahead of a mid/upper trough
centered over the Northern Intermountain. A deepening surface trough
stretching from the High Plains of Colorado to the Northern Plains
has allowed for a tight pressure gradient to setup over Kansas
today. Strong south winds have been observed as a result of this
feature this afternoon, with the strongest gusts in central and
western Kansas to this point. Short-range models continue to
indicate limited decoupling tonight alongside a 50-60 mph LLJ, so
strong wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible tonight into
early Sunday morning primarily in central and western Kansas.
Could see brief periods of gusts above 45 mph, but given
uncertainty regarding the strength of any low-level inversion
that manages to develop, decided against issuing a Wind Advisory
at this time.

The aforementioned surface trough is progged to track to the south
and east overnight. As it makes its way into portions of central
Kansas late Sunday afternoon and evening, showers and storms are
expected to develop amid ample surface convergence to overcome
capping issues. Low-level lapse rates in the 7-8 C/km range
alongside 30-40 kts of effective shear may allow for some strong
to severe storms, especially with development early on.
However, mid-level flow oriented largely parallel to the
surface trough should shift activity towards a linear mode
fairly quickly, which will make strong winds and small hail the
primary threats heading into the overnight hours.

Chances for showers and storms will linger through Monday and
Tuesday as the frontal zone slowly slides to the southeast. High
temperatures in the 60s and low 70s are forecast behind the front,
with highs in the upper 70s and 80s out ahead. Dry conditions and
slightly warmer temperatures are anticipated following the departure
of this system on Wednesday, with readings ranging from the middle
70s to near 80 heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Little to no changes from 00z TAF issuance.

Stout/gusty south winds will prevail overnight and Sunday,
ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Low-
level wind shear within 1500-2000 ft AGL will prevail through
early Sunday for the TAF sites RSL-GBD-SLN-HUT-ICT, due to a
45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet.

A strong cold front approaching from the northwest will support
scattered thunderstorms by early Sunday evening over central
and north-central Kansas. Inserted PROB30 groups at RSL and GBD
to cover this threat. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...ADK