824
FXUS63 KICT 022344
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms will linger across southeast KS
  through the afternoon.

- Frontal boundary will push through Wednesday
  afternoon/evening with a few severe storms accompanying it.

- A reinforcing cold front on Thursday night will bring much
  cooler air for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Currently, in the upper levels, we have troughing over the eastern
U.S. with a ridge situated over the Rockies. At the surface, a
remnant MCV lingers over eastern Kansas. This has been the focus of
a few scattered showers over east southeast Kansas this morning as
well as lingering cloud cover for central and eastern Kansas.

For the rest of this afternoon and into the evening hours,
temperatures will top out in the 70s areawide. A scattered showers
and even a few thunderstorms will dot portions of southeast Kansas.
While strong or severe weather is not expected today, instability
upwards of 1000 J/kg with bulk shear around 20 kts is capable of
supporting a couple of run of the mill thunderstorms. This activity
will diminish quickly after sunset this evening.

As we move into Wednesday, a deep upper-level low pressure system
looks to dive into the Great Lakes Region once again. This system
will push an associated surface frontal boundary into the Plains
early on Wednesday. Ahead of this frontal boundary, afternoon high
temperatures on Wednesday will soar into the middle to upper 80s
areawide, with a few 90s possible in central Kansas. The frontal
boundary will sweep across the area on Wednesday afternoon
bringing a slight risk of severe weather to the area for the
late afternoon and evening hours. With CAPE values between
2000-3000 J/kg and shear between 40-50 kts, gusty winds and
large hail will be the main threats with the strongest storms.

For Thursday and Friday, it looks like there will be a another
reinforcing shot of cooler air as a secondary upper level impulse
plunges into the Northern Plains from Alberta and Manitoba. This
will send another frontal boundary across the area on Thursday night
into Friday morning that will have some accompanying showers and
rumbles of thunder with it. Temperatures for Friday through the
weekend will remain in the lower to middle 70s for central and
southeastern Kansas. Temperatures will remain mild into early next
week along with a couple of chances for some showers or
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A narrow strip of MVFR clouds will linger in vicinity of ICT for
a few hours early this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
persist overnight across much of the region. The only caveat is
the potential for patchy fog late tonight into early-mid morning
Wednesday, especially from roughly I-135 east through the Flint
Hills. Chances appear low at this point, so did not include in
the ICT 00z TAF. Furthermore, a strong cold front approaching
from the north will be the focus for scattered thunderstorms by
late afternoon Wednesday. A few severe storms are possible.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...ADK