039
FXUS63 KICT 172038
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
338 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief warm-up on Tuesday followed by near normal temperatures
  for the rest of the work week.

- Slight rain chances are possible Tuesday night with better
  rain chances across the area expected Wednesday night. Severe
  weather is possible with this activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

An upper ridge is currently building into the western CONUS as an
upper trough digs across Manitoba and Ontario, shifting flow aloft
over our area back to northwesterly. Surface high pressure sits
across the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Kansas and
Oklahoma. Lingering cloud cover remains over southeast KS into
portions of south-central KS with high temperatures in the 80s
across the area. As we move into tonight, low temperatures will drop
into the upper 60s to near 70. Confidence has increased for our
forecast area to remain mostly dry tonight as recent model guidance
suggests storm chances staying well north and northeast of the area
as the LLJ ramps up with the nose of the jet positioning itself into
Nebraska.

For Tuesday, southerly winds will increase from the deepening low
over western KS combined with above normal 850 mb temperatures,
warmer temperatures are likely to return for Tuesday afternoon.
Highs are expected to rise back into the low 100s across the area.
The warmest heat indices are expected in south-central KS to along
the KS/OK border with values greater than 105 degrees. As such, a
Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday afternoon through the
early evening. A cold front is progged to push south through
Nebraska during the day on Tuesday, likely ending up near the KS/NE
border by Tuesday night. Storms are likely to develop in northern KS
from 850-700 mb WAA and move towards central MO though there is
uncertainty with the position of the 850 mb front. Its possible for
storms to clip central KS Tuesday night so have maintained 20-30%
PoPs. Severe storms with this activity is also possible with the
main threats being damaging winds and large hail as plenty of
instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, effective shear greater
than 40 kts, and DCAPE values over 1400 J/kg are forecast. Trends
with this activity will continue to be monitored.

By Wednesday, model guidance progs the frontal boundary to have
pushed south through most of Kansas with the front expected to be in
southern Kansas by Wednesday morning. This will make Tuesdays warmer
temperatures short-lived as highs range from the mid 80s in central
KS to the upper 90s in southern KS on Wednesday afternoon. Better
rain chances across the area are possible Wednesday night into
Thursday as a stronger shortwave trough slides across the region,
though there is uncertainty with timing and positioning of storms,
so trends will continue to be monitored, but strong to severe storms
appear likely with this activity. For Thursday and beyond, mostly
dry conditions are expected. Near normal temperatures for this time
of year appear likely on both Thursday and Friday afternoon with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s. As we
move into the weekend, the upper ridge will strengthen, allowing
warmer temperatures to return back to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

VFR cigs should gradually exit southern and southeast Kansas
this afternoon, and mostly clear skies should dominate the
region this evening through Tuesday morning. Surface winds are
generally under 10 knots and variable this afternoon. Winds
should gradually shift to southerly or southeasterly this
evening into tonight, then winds should increase to around 10 to
15 knots Tuesday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ067-068-082-
083-091>093-096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JC