869
FXUS63 KICT 160531
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions will continue into this evening before slightly
  cooler temperatures return for Sunday and Monday.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible early this evening
  into tonight with chances lingering into Sunday morning.

- Slight rain chances are possible each night with better rain chances
  across the area expected Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

An upper shortwave trough is currently sliding across the Central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley with the main ridge axis
over the Great Lakes area. A weak surface boundary remains draped
across central Kansas into southwest Kansas. Highs are closer to
normal in the low 90s in north central KS with south central and
southeast Kansas in the 90s to low 100s. Late this afternoon into
the early evening, instability will increase along the boundary with
steep low-level lapse rates especially in south-central KS, likely
resulting in scattered storms developing along the boundary. A few
strong to severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts as the
main hazard as DCAPE values are generally up to 1500 J/kg. PWATs
continue to remain above the 75th percentile for this time of year
with areas approaching 2" or greater, leading to efficient rainfall
with any storm that develops. As we move into tonight and the
overnight hours, another weak shortwave trough is progged to slide
across the Central Plains, shifting better rain chances into central
KS. This activity is likely to linger into Sunday morning.

By Sunday morning, the cold front should push south of our area into
Oklahoma bringing slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday afternoon
as winds shift to northerly. Highs will range from the mid 80s in
central KS to the low 90s in south central with some areas in
southeast KS in the low 100s. There is some uncertainty with timing
of the front for southeast KS, which may result in hot conditions
lingering there as heat indices are currently forecast between 102-
108. Given the uncertainty, did not extend a Heat Advisory to the
area but trends should be monitored. Slight rain chances (under 20%)
may be possible Sunday night into Monday mainly in southern KS near
the KS/OK border, though uncertainty is high. Near normal
temperatures will continue into Monday with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s across the area.

As we remain in zonal to northwesterly flow aloft as the upper ridge
builds back into the Rockies and a deep upper trough digs over the
Great Lakes, a few weak shortwaves embedded in the flow may slide
across the region resulting in slight rain chances both Monday and
Tuesday night. Confidence is high that most of the region will
remain dry with this activity. For Tuesday, warmer conditions will
likely return as above normal 850 mb temperatures are progged. This
will result in highs rising back into the upper 90s to lower 100s.
Though this heat might be short-lived as a frontal boundary is
progged to move south through the area on Wednesday. There is some
uncertainty with the timing of the boundary, but its likely to end
up in southern Kansas near the KS/OK border by early Wednesday
afternoon. If this solution happens, highs will range from the upper
80s in central KS to the upper 90s in southern KS. Better rain
chances are possible Wednesday night into Thursday as a stronger
shortwave trough slides across the region, though there is
uncertainty and trends will continue to be monitored. For Thursday
and beyond, near normal temperatures for this time of year appear
likely with highs in the 90s and lows in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms continues to approach central KS.
Trends over the last 1-2 hours reveal an overall weakening trend
with the cluster, although winds up to 40-45 kt are possible
near RSL. Otherwise, SLN stands the next greatest potential for
convection but that potential seems to be decreasing with model
and radar trends. The better chances may remain north of SLN.
A wind shift to the north/northwest will take place at all
terminals by dawn with speeds 8-12 kt.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...BRF