792
FXUS63 KICT 232319
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
619 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight through Monday morning
  with potential for large hail, damaging winds and locally
  heavy rainfall.

- Periodic rain chances are possible through next weekend with the
  main chances in the evenings through the overnight hours.

- Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
  through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

An upper trough is currently over the eastern CONUS with ridging
over much of the Plains and into the southwest US. An upper
shortwave trough is sliding across the northwestern US into the
Northern Rockies. In our area, scattered showers continue across
portions of central KS due to 850-700 mb WAA. This late afternoon
into this evening, slight chances for showers and storms will be
possible in eastern Kansas as 850 mb WAA continues. Strong to severe
storms appear unlikely with this activity due to the lack of
instability. As we move into late tonight and the overnight hours,
additional storm chances will be possible for areas along and east
of I-135 with the best chances in southeast KS as 700 mb WAA
continues. Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with
this activity as MUCAPE values are generally around 1000 J/kg with
30-40 kts of effective shear and mid-level lapse rates greater than
7 C/km. The main hazard will likely be large hail but isolated
damaging winds cannot be ruled out. PWATs are around 1.7" which is
greater than the 75th percentile for this time of year, leading to
efficient rainfall with any storm that develops. If numerous storms
continue to track over the same area, localized flooding concerns
may be possible.

Moving into Monday morning, scattered showers and storms may linger
from overnight activity in areas along and east of the Flint Hills
with this activity expected to shift east by late Monday morning.
High temperatures will rise back into the 90s with the warmest
readings anticipated in south-central KS. For Monday night, mostly
dry conditions are expected before slight rain chances start to
increase in northern Kansas, closer to early Tuesday morning as a
weak shortwave slides across the region.

For Tuesday, high temperatures will once again rise into the low to
mid 90s across our area. As we move towards Tuesday night into
Wednesday, rain chances will increase as a stronger shortwave moves
into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes area, pushing a
frontal boundary south into the Central Plains. Showers and storms
may be possible along this weak boundary, though timing and coverage
are still uncertain with this activity.

For Wednesday and beyond, the upper air pattern will generally
remain unchanged, keeping the Plains in northwesterly flow aloft.
This will allow embedded shortwaves to continue ejecting out into
the region, keeping periodic rain chances possible into next
weekend. The main rain chances will be in the evenings through the
overnight hours each night. For temperatures, highs will remain in
the 90s with values around or slight above normal temperatures for
this time of year. Lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70 across
the area. For next weekend, triple digit heat is possible to return
as the upper ridge axis shifts towards the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR weather conditions will prevail for much of the region over
the next 24hrs, however scattered to numerous showers/storms
look to develop over eastern Kansas late tonight. This will
likely affect KCNU taf site during the overnight and morning
hours, therefore we included tempo for thunderstorms late
tonight into the morning hour. Light east and southeast winds
will prevail across the region during the next 24hrs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...CDJ