544
FXUS62 KILM 240039
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
839 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Relaxed sfc pg and a weak sea breeze expected Friday which
should keep winds limited and as a result a break in the strong
longshore currents of the past 5 days. Sea breeze will still be
a convergent force to aid pcpn development Fri.

Moderate rip current risk for Pender/New Hanover and Georgetown
County Beaches expected Fri. Southeast swell at 8 second periods
to dominate the seas spectrum the next few days.

Baroclinic zone to reside across the ILM CWA next few days
resulting in a swath of pcpn across the FA. Flood Watch already
in place may need to be expanded in its coverage across the FA as
well as extending its timing.

Aviation discussion updated with 00Z Tafs Issuance.
&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)The next few days will offer up some drought releif but also
the possibility of localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The next few days will offer up some drought
releif but also the possibility of localized flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Cold front currently roughly bisecting NC from north to south.
This boundary is progged to drop into the area tonight and stall
along the coast. This mornings MHX RAOB sampled 2.12" of PW, a
value that will only increase as we head into Friday. Mid level
flow will become increasingly laden with weak vorticity maxima
keeping shower activity sustained along the front especially
late Friday. Areas along and south of the border should see the
heaviest rain as this occurs as well as overall during the next
3 days. Currently this means that the heaviest rain will be
focused along the coast, NC moreso than SC. No changes have been
made to the Flood Watch at this time though a later expiration
time seems likely. Less likely but still possible could be a
southern expansion if enough rain-cooled air pushes the boundary
a bit farther south than currently forecast. The drying trend
will begin gradually on Sunday though the trough may offer
another rain-making piece of energy on Monday according to
latest guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sfc front to basically stall west to east across the FA during
the next 24 hrs. North of the front will observe IFR stratus
tonight into daylight Fri with potential for MVFR fog. South of
the front will see mainly VFR with occasional MVFR clouds. And
along and north of the boundary, a swath of west to east moving
showers and thunderstorms. Will identify the pcpn coverage and
timing with prevailing/tempo and prob30 groupings. Nevertheless,
light to moderate showers will dominate with few thunderstorms
possible mainly near the coast, ie Cape Fear northward.
Where locations could observe reduced vsby to 1 to 3 miles in
heavy rain. A few high res models indicate some of the more
intense thunderstorms early Fri morning along the coast, with
ILM and possibly CRE under the gun. The threat for showers and
embedded thunderstorms will occur all day Fri with prevailing
MVFR conditions likely at all terminals and the period IFR
restrictions from thunderstorm activity. Winds during Fri go
variable in direction at 5 to 10 kt, however will identify a
"best" wind direction in lieu of going variable.

Extended Forecast...Potential for periodic MVFR/IFR due to
tstorms expected Friday evening through late Sat, most numerous
in the afternoon and evening. Conditions should start to dry out
Monday with predominant VFR returning, and prevailing through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Tuesday... A cold front is approaching the waters
from the NW. This boundary will stall just inland keeping the marine
winds S to SW but very light as the stronger flow is moved out to
sea. Swell energy is fairly minimal and so with light winds seas
will settle to levels manageable to most mariners-though vsby
restriction in moderate to heavy rain still a hazard. Confidence in
the wind forecast is a bit lower on Sunday as the weakening front may
or may not be pushed south of at least some of the forecast area. A
southerly flow will become established by Monday but remain weak as
west Atlantic high pressure is displaced east of its normal
position.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB/IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB