303
FXUS62 KILM 090558
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
158 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front will linger offshore with ridging high pressure
inland. Dry and relatively cool weather in store through this
weekend, with only minimal rain chances near the coast Friday
night into Saturday. Warming trend sets up heading into next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Stalled front offshore with weak sfc lows riding NE along it,
will keep throwing back low and mid level clouds across the
coastal counties and mid to high level clouds across the inland
counties thruout this period. Pcpn should remain just off the
coast at the closest approach of these weak NE moving sfc lows.
Would have to go west of the I-95 corridor to get a good dose of
the days sunshine although will periodically observe the sun
east of the corridor. Tightened sfc pg and the cool and dry
conditions will result in max temps in the upper 70s to around
80. The highs also include the coast given local SSTs are
running in the upper 70s to around 80. Tonights lows will run
around 60 along and west of the I-95 corridor where less low/mid
clouds occur compared to the coast where lows will run in the
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Latest model trends keep low pressure along stalled front well
offshore with plenty of dry air in the mid levels keeping our
area dry Wednesday. Low level northerly flow with high pressure
wedge in place and building mid level ridge to the west will
maintain below normal temps through the short term. Highs around
80F Wednesday and low 80s Thursday, with low temps in the upper
50s-low 60s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry weather with below normal temps continue into the weekend
as surface high pressure persists with mid-level ridge to the
west. There is a slight chance of showers impacting the coast
Friday night into Saturday as an upper trough digs down into the
area, but confidence is low looking at dry air in forecast
soundings and ensemble data. As the northeast flow finally cuts
off, a warming trend is forecasted starting end of next weekend
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the period. Only fly in the ointment will be later
this evening and overnight as 1 of those weak sfc lows pass by
offshore, a rogue MVFR ceiling may eclipse ILM terminal.
Otherwise looking a VFR stratocu and altocu at the coastal
terminals and VFR mid to high level clouds across the inland
terminals. Tightened sfc pg will result in gusty NNE-NE winds,
with the gustiness mainly during daylight Tue, between 14Z and
22Z also running hiest at the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...VFR to dominate the extended. Offshore
stalled front to finally get pushed further offshore and away
from the Carolinas...allowing high pressure from the north to
settle across the area by the late week period. Breezy NE winds
to continue and could periodically gust to 20+ kt, mainly
daylights and mainly at the coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...1030 mb high pressure Centered N thru NE of
the waters will ridge back across the Carolinas thruout this
period. At the same time, a stationary front will reside well
offshore from the Carolinas oriented NE-SW. Weak waves of low
pressure will move NE along it, periodically passing by the
local waters but remaining offshore. Could see scattered showers
reaching back to the local waters prior to the low passing by,
ie. this evening and overnight. Overall, this will keep a
tightened sfc pg across the local waters which will lie between
the 2 synoptic features. Looking at SCA threshold NNE-NE winds
thru the period with resulting seas at 4 to 7 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday...Northeast winds will continue to
dominate the local coastal waters into next weekend, with
current forecasted sustained winds peaking around 20 kts Friday
night into Saturday as an upper trough moves through. Seas 3-5
ft Wednesday lowers to 2-4 ft late Wednesday through end of the
week, primarily due to NE swell with a 1-2 ft SE swell mixed in.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The full moon and elevated north to northeast winds will keep
tides higher than normal into the late week period. Minor
coastal flooding is expected with each high tide cycle thru Wed.
Locations include the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington
southward and along the coasts of NE SC and SE NC including the
back bays and sounds and along the Intra-coastal Waterway.

High rip current risk will be in effect for the New Hanover and
Georgetown County Beaches while a strong north to south
longshore current will be ongoing across all beaches except
Brunswick county where a weak to moderate east to west longshore
current will exist.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ106.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ107.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ054.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
     SCZ054-056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VAO
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...