Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
564 FXUS62 KILM 031759 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1259 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussions for the afternoon update. No major changes to the forecast philosophy. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures well-above normal through early next week 2) Widespread marine fog possible from Wednesday through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Temperatures well-above normal through early next week with increasing chances for showers this weekend Mid-upper ridging over the Bahamas will build in while surface high pressure shifts to a position near Bermuda by Thursday. This will result in anomalously warm air overspreading the area, with highs expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s away from the coast from Thursday onward, with low-mid 70s along and near the coast. Abnormally high dew points will support lows in the mid-50s to low 60s from Thursday night onward, coolest at the beaches. Mainly south to southwest winds will prevail during this period, allowing for a healthy sea breeze to spread inland of the intracoastal waterway each afternoon. Strong subsidence and weak flow aloft should preclude any pop-up shower development through Saturday. However, a decaying cold front is expected to bring increased chances for showers, especially on Sunday into Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Widespread marine fog possible from Wednesday through the weekend Details below in the marine section. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overall, expect VFR conditions for the balance of the daytime hours as stratus finishes burning off/transitions to sct-bkn cumulus. Model guidance indicates a good potential for BR overnight with FG possible. For now, have limited vsbys overnight to 1-3 miles but lower values are possible, especially inland. VFR conditions should return after sunrise Wednesday, Extended Forecast...VFR conditions are expected for much of the extended period but patchy fog could bring late night/early morning restrictions and sea fog could advect into the Grand Strand terminals Wed night-Fri. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT will become E at 5 to 10 KT overnight before backing to the north Wednesday morning before becoming southerly during the afternoon Wednesday. Seas will run 2 to 4 FT. Wednesday night through Saturday... Bermuda high pressure will maintain control through the period with winds generally out of the south to south-southwest at speeds of 10 kts or less. Seas of 2-4 ft will be primarily driven by ESE to SE swells with a period of 9-10 sec. As dew points rise into the mid-upper 50s tomorrow and the upper 50s to low 60s on Friday over water temps in the low 50s, sea fog is likely to develop, although it is questionable if this will occur on Wednesday or hold off until Wednesday night, with increasing coverage from Thursday onward. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ABW DISCUSSION...ABW AVIATION...31 MARINE...ABW/31