888
FXUS62 KILM 280627
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
227 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal
flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions this
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor
coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf
conditions this week.

Northeast flow will be enhanced today as reinforcing high
builds down the coast into Thursday, tightening the pressure
gradient. Although winds will not be as strong or gusty compared
to last week, concerns remain at the coast. The likelihood for
strong, dangerous rip currents will remain elevated through the
end of the week along with the potential for strong longshore
currents at east-facing beaches. For marine implications, see
the marine section below.

Coastal Flooding: High astronomical tides combined with prolonged,
strong northeast flow will push water levels along the coast over
minor flooding thresholds, especially with the morning high tides. A
Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for this morning`s high
tide.

As far as sensible weather goes, ridging aloft and high pressure at
the surface will keep the region dry, but breezy. Increased low-
level moisture today and Thursday will produce cloud cover, and
possibly a few sprinkles but the shallow nature of the moisture
and lack of forcing will prevent measurable rain. Temperatures
gradually rise through the work week before settling back to
near normal over the weekend. A storm system affecting the
Southern Plains late in the week may eventually bring increased
rain chances early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All sites presently VFR, but this will change as an area of
enhanced low level moisture spread southeast. low clouds
associated with this moisture have developed northeast of the
area and are slowly expanding south. Rate of expansion would
have these clouds arriving at NC terminals 08-09Z and 10-11Z
for the SC terminals. Inland areas have a better chance of
seeing IFR ceilings and possibly IFR fog while along the coast
forecast soundings suggest ceilings right around 1k ft.
Restrictions will linger through mid-morning before heating
helps mix out low level moisture, still expect to see partly to
mostly cloudy skies hang around all day, but VFR will return mid
to late morning.

Northeast flow continues through the TAF period with speeds 7-10
kt after sunrise with gusts of 15-20 kt for the coastal
terminals. Flow aloft becomes more easterly especially this
evening, leading to another push of low level moisture and
ceilings dropping into the MVFR realm around 06Z for coastal
terminals a bit later inland. Not expecting IFR at this time.

Extended outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail with gusty
NE winds at times, especially near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Northeast flow will
increase today as high pressure to the north is reinforced.
Although speeds will generally be under 20 kt within 20 NM, the
extended duration and fetch of enhanced northeast flow, on top
of an already elevated sea state (easterly swell 4-5 ft), will
keep seas over 6 ft through Thu. The pressure gradient starts
to relax late Thu with winds and seas gradually decreasing
Thu night through Fri. High pressure returns for the weekend,
building down the coast Sat into Sun, leading to another
northeast surge and potential for headlines. Low pressure
developing over the central CONUS early next week could lead to
stronger winds than currently forecast for Sun, but have limited
confidence in timing/location/strength of low at this point.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to noon EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ107.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ108.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to noon EDT Wednesday for
     SCZ054-056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM