387
FXUS62 KILM 170748
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
348 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid summertime weather will continue with
temperatures above normal for most of the week. Frontal passage
late Thursday will lead to a slight uptick in rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm, humid air mass will remain in place through the forecast
period but a building ridge aloft should limit convection to the
isolated to scattered range this afternoon and early evening. Highs
today will reach the lower 90s with cooler numbers nearer the
beaches. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridging will be in place across the
southeast during the period. Pops remain minimal for the period with
perhaps a little activity on the sea breeze. As for temperatures and
the possibility of a heat advisory or two...guidance seems to have
cooled ever so slightly but headlines remain a possibility.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough and the associated cold front will
affect the area Friday and into Saturday with diminishing impacts
later in the period. Good chance pops reside across the area both
early days mainly moreso in the later afternoon and early evening
hours. Thermal profiles become unfavorable for convection Sunday
into Monday. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s with lows in
the lower to middle 70s.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC
through the 06Z TAF period. The exceptions could be with cigs aob 1
kft inland in the 08z-13z window.  Generally, guidance does not
forecast that but persistence shows it`s possible.  Attm, confidence
is too low for inclusion in the forecast.  Another chance for
restrictions will be with convection this afternoon, roughly from 19
to 23z.  For now, have limited that to inland terminals due to ridge
aloft edging more into the coastal areas today and a fairly inactive
sea breeze the last couple of days.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT will increase to 15 to
20 KT today and continue into tonight. Seas will run 3 to 4 FT.


Wednesday through Saturday...
South to southwest winds of 10-15 knots will be in place
most of the forecast period as Bermuda High pressure remains the
focus. Speeds will probably increase briefly Thursday to 15-20 knots
as the inland trough gets better enhanced increasing the gradient.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...31
MARINE...SHK/31