768
FXUS62 KILM 170013
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
813 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda High Pressure will remain off the coast through this
weekend but continuing to ridge back across the area.
Temperatures will increase Thu thru Sat as high pressure
strengthens aloft and a dangerous combination of heat and
humidity develops. Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible
Thu thru Sun across the area with more widespread coverage by
early next week as a front drops southward to the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Took POPs out of the forecast for the remainder of the evening
hrs and thru the overnight hrs. Only exception may be a few
nocturnal showers/tstorm skirting the Cape Fear area, although
am inclined not to include given low level flow more
southwesterly as opposed to due south the past several days. Min
temps mid to upper 70s except around 80 at the coast given SSTs
in the 80s. Hires models keep low stratus and fog development
at bay and thus will continue with the mostly clear fcst thru
the night with mainly dissipating convective debris mid and
upper level clouds overhead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Two small but important changes will take place in the weather
pattern over the next 24 hours. The first will be 500 mb high
pressure centered just south of Bermuda starting to move
westward toward Florida. Our 500 mb heights will rise by ~20
meters by tomorrow afternoon with mid level warming and drying
anticipated. This should act to reduce (but not eliminate)
airmass convection that we`ve seen dot the area the last couple
of days. I`ll still hang onto a slight chance of showers and
t-storms along and inland from the seabreeze with PoPs 20
percent or less.

The other item of note is an area of surface low pressure moving
from the Great Lakes tonight northeastward along the US/Canadian
border on Thursday. The pressure falls associated with this
feature will extend as far south as the Mid Atlantic states and
will help to veer our surface wind from south to southwest.
This should hold the seabreeze boundary closer to the coast
Thursday and delay the arrival of cooler marine air into cities
like Conway, Wilmington, and Burgaw. The overall warmer airmass,
fewer diurnal storms, and an inhibited seabreeze should allow
temperatures to rise into the 93-95 range inland with heat
indices approaching 105.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A westward expansion of the mid-upper ridge axis is anticipated
during this period, which will subsequently bring more dry air
and subsidence into play going into the weekend, along with
higher max temps and less cloud cover. Thus, Heat Advisories
will likely be needed for Friday and Saturday as max temps reach
into the mid-upper 90s amidst dew points in the low-mid 70s
away from the coast. Dry air and subsidence beneath the ridge
axis will contribute to more isolated to widely scattered shower
and thunderstorm coverage, resulting in mainly low-chance PoPs
across the area. Lows in the mid- upper 70s will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid-level troughing well north of the forecast area is expected
to nudge heights down later in the weekend as the ridge axis is
pushed further westward. Early next week, guidance shows this
troughing digging into the western Atlantic, setting up a
northwest flow regime over the Carolinas. Although some dry air
and subsidence will linger, moisture supplied by daily upstream
convection will help to reduce the amount of dry air and keep
multi-layered clouds frequently in the sky. In addition,
depending on how far south the western Atlantic troughing
reaches, and where the ridge axis parks itself to the west,
shortwave energy riding down the east side of the ridge may
yield one or more convective complexes originating from the
higher terrain reaching the forecast area. Near the surface,
high pressure is expected to shift over the Gulf, causing winds
to be more southwesterly to westerly. Thus, the sea breeze
should also become more active and stay nearer to the coast
early next week, leading to higher PoPs across the area after
this weekend.

Temperatures will initially be abnormally hot for this time of
year before settling back towards normal, with highs in the
mid-upper 90s on Sunday, nudging into the mid-90s on Monday,
then low 90s or upper 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the
mid-upper 70s are still expected as dew points remain in the
mid-upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR to dominate overnight as S-SW winds stay active thru the
night. GFSLamp guidance keeps the majority of the low stratus
at bay and keeps any ground fog development isolated at best.
Convection waning pretty quickly as the days insolation ceases.
Will deal with convective debris mid and upper level clouds
this evening scouring out to mainly thin/opaque cirrus
overnight. Upper ridging extending from the Bermuda high well
offshore from the SE States Coast, will attempt to keep a lid on
any thunderstorm development during daylight Thu. But given
the huge amounts of instability/CAPE numbers progged, included
VCTS for the MYR and CRE coastal terminals and a POP30 for FLO
and LBT terminals where periodic MVFR remains possible. Low
level winds become more southwesterly and should keep the
majority of the nocturnal Atlantic showers and tstorms just off
the coast, possibly skirting the Cape Fear area, not enough to
include an ILM terminal inclusion. Looking at SSW 5 to 10 thru
the night, SW around 10 kt daylight Thu morning, SW 10 to 15 kt
inland terminals Thu afternoon/evening, except S 10-15 kt g20 kt
for the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Isolated showers and thunderstorms may bring
brief MVFR ceiling and visibility impacts Friday through
Sunday, mainly the afternoon and early evening hours. Coverage
may increase Monday as a frontal boundary approaches from the
north.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Bermuda High Pressure offshore will maintain
a southerly wind across the Carolinas tonight, veering more
southwesterly on Thursday as pressures fall across the Mid
Atlantic states. There will likely be fewer showers developing
across the ocean tonight versus the last two nights as the
atmosphere aloft becomes warmer and drier. Wind speeds should
average 10-15 knots outside of local seabreeze enhancement which
could approach 20 knots Thursday afternoon in the Myrtle Beach
vicinity and north of Cape Fear. Dominant waves should be 6
seconds period from the south with sea heights averaging 3 to 4
feet.

Thursday night through Monday... Bermuda high pressure will
maintain steady southwesterly flow over the waters through the
weekend with daily enhancements due to the sea breeze, although
gusts should stay just shy of SCA criteria. After the weekend,
Bermuda high pressure splits with one smaller high centering
over the Gulf and another displaced into the central Atlantic.
The result should be weaker winds that generally favor westerly,
but see a southerly turn during the day due to the sea breeze.
Waves will stem from a combination of southerly wind waves
around 2-3 ft at 5 sec and southeasterly swell around 1-2 ft
with a period around 8 sec.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/ABW