134
FXUS62 KILM 281018
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
618 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

As of 3 AM EDT... A new Coastal Flood Advisory will be issued
for high tide tonight for downtown ILM/lower Cape Fear River. A
Small Craft Advisory was issued for all coastal waters for
tonight. The TAF discussion updated for 06Z issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat Advisory in effect all areas today.

2) Strong to severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon
and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisory in effect all areas today.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High temperatures of 93-96 away from the coast coupled with
dewpoints in the 70s will result in heat index values generally
between 103-107. The Heat Advisory has been expanded to the
remaining parts of the forecast area. One potential challenge
would be an increase in convective debris cloudiness spilling
across the area from the NW/N. If it becomes extensive then this
would impede afternoon temperatures and the heat index.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible later
this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will increase
later today. Questions remain as to whether or not the lead area
of storms approaching will hold together or head more southward
(just west of the forecast area). This could potentially set
the stage for another round of development during the evening
especially north of the forecast area that would build
southward. The question regarding the second round relates to if
just the northeast part of the forecast area would receive
storms or a larger portion.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patchy fog across the region this morning will decrease in
coverage shortly after sunrise. VFR expected for much of the
day. Southwest winds increase this afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. Uncertainty in the
development and progression of convection continues for this
afternoon. Recent continuity in hi-res models has prompted an
upgrade to TEMPO where convection appears more likely. Debris
clouds and upstream convection should allow for better
confidence with the next routine issuance.

Extended Forecast... VFR conditions should dominate Wednesday
through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Saturday...An area of low pressure moving toward
the Northeast U.S. today will allow SWly winds to increase as
the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching front.
Plan to raise a Small Craft Advisory with this package,
especially since GEFS >20 knot probabilities are in the 90-100%
range beginning by early this evening through early Wednesday
morning. Afterward, in the wake of the front offshore flow
weakens across the waters during Wednesday. This boundary could
waffle back to the north Wednesday night, then offshore again
Thursday with a brief period of offshore flow before becoming
light/variable Thursday night into Friday. Possible Sly flow
becoming established by Saturday but confidence is low at this
time. Seas will be highest tonight into early Wednesday, then
another bump in seas Wednesday night early Thursday. Otherwise,
3 ft or less through the rest of the period. Regarding
showers/t- storms: Isolated/widely scattered very early this
morning associated with old outflow, then scattered to numerous
tonight with the approaching front. Unsettled weather will
return by Wed night, followed by scattered storms across the
waters Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NCZ107.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...21/SRP
MARINE...SRP