669
FXUS62 KILM 261742
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
142 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A new round of Coastal Flood Advisories has been issued for
tonight across the entire coastline along northeast SC and
southeast NC, along with the lower Cape Fear River, including
downtown Wilmington.

Elsewhere, no major changes coming down the track for the
forecast period. Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Minor coastal flooding will remain a concern during high
  tides throughout the weekend.

- 2) Cool Canadian air will slowly modify over the next several
  days. No rain chances in sight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding will remain a concern
during high tides throughout the weekend.

A full moon and a mid-latitude cyclone (nor`easter) spinning up
the mid-Atlantic coast continue to work together to produce +1.0
to +2.0 foot tidal anomalies along Wrightsville Beach, NC and
Myrtle Beach, SC. Throw in this anomaly with the astronomical
tides, and minor coastal flooding appears to be a slam dunk
through at least Sunday morning, and perhaps beyond.

New Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for the coast from
Georgetown County, SC all the way up through Pender County, NC
from 6 PM - 10 PM EDT this evening. Another advisory is in
effect for the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown
Wilmington, from 8 PM - 1 AM EDT tonight.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool Canadian air will slowly modify over the
next several days. No rain chances in sight.

Northwesterly flow, aided by the nor`easter approaching New
England, and high pressure over Ontario, will continue through
at least Monday. This will keep cooler air in place, allowing
for two more, pumpkin spicy lows in the low-to-mid 50s tonight
and Sunday night.

High temperatures increase by a degree or so each day through
Monday, getting into the lower 80s. Air mass modification
accelerates by Tuesday, allowing sustained highs in the mid-to-
upper 80s Tuesday through Friday of next week. Dry air will keep
rain chances down through the work week, possibly returning by
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Solidly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Northwest winds could
gust as high as 20 kt through 20Z this afternoon. Calm to light
winds up to 5-6 kts overnight tonight. Winds back slightly
towards the NNW towards the end of the period, gradient winds
increasing up to 8-10 kts.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions should prevail through the
first half of next week. There is a low chance of morning
ground fog Tuesday through Thursday, as shallow Atlantic
moisture returns onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure centered east of the Delmarva Peninsula
should slowly move toward the NJ coastline Sunday into Monday. Our
dominant wave group should remain the 11-13 second northeasterly
swell, decreasing in height over the next few days. Weak high
pressure should build along the Southeast coast next week,
providing a light to moderate west to southwest flow across the
Carolinas. Dry weather should continue. A small west to
southwesterly wind chop will arise at times beginning Sunday,
but combined sea heights should remain well below advisory
criteria.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Sunday for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB