694
FXUS62 KILM 111035
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
635 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion. No other changes attm.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry midweek with potential for extreme heat today
through Friday.

2) Thunderstorm chances should increase again late Friday and
Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry midweek with potential for extreme
heat today through Friday.

Today will kick off an extended period of hot and humid weather
across our area with mid-level ridge extending across the
Southeast from the Atlantic. Forecasted afternoon temperatures
each day this week is in the upper 90s, with potential for a few
sites reaching 100F at least one day this week. Combined with
seasonably high dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices
each afternoon will easily eclipse triple digits. Mixing down of
drier air each afternoon may alleviate some of the humidity,
but overall looking at multiple days of heat products needed.
For today, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for coastal
counties, and have added Bladen county to the advisory based on
latest forecast. NWS HeatRisk highlights potential for extreme
impacts from heat for our area Wed - Fri, with lows in the mid
to upper 70s providing little to no relief.

Rain chances are relatively low through early Friday due to the
ridge`s influence. Several upper impulses may lead to widely
scattered showers moving into our area later today and again
late Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm chances should increase again late
Friday and Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the
north.

The next best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be late Friday and during the day Saturday. The upper air
pattern should amplify late this week as a longwave trough takes
shape just off the East Coast and the former Bermuda ridge
retrogrades to the Mississippi Valley. Northwest flow aloft may
push a cold front southward into the Carolinas Saturday,
accompanied by cooler temperatures for the weekend and an uptick
in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR. Lingering winds and drier air have hindered fog/stratus
formation thus far.  While some shallow ground fog is still possible
for the next hour or two, impact to aviation interests should be
limited. Mostly clear skies today with a few diurnal cumulus clouds
around 4-5 kft. Relatively light winds out of the west-southwest,
with a southerly sea breeze pinned at the coast (impacting MYR/CRE)
this afternoon.

Extended Forecast...VFR should prevail through the rest of the
week. Shallow ground fog is possible inland each early morning.
The approach of a cold front from the north may lead to
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms again late
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...West-southwest winds will prevail across the
local coastal waters through Friday due to Bermuda high
pressure offshore. Wind speeds generally 10-15 kts, with gusts
near 20 kts each afternoon/evening. Seas around 2-3 ft through
Friday, with 4 footers in the 20-60nm zones Friday afternoon,
primarily due to SSW wind wave with a weak ESE swell mixed in. A
cold front will approach from the north late Friday, moving
across the area sometime Friday night or Saturday, turning winds
northeasterly for Saturday. The front will also be accompanied
by an increase in thunderstorm chances.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...VAO
DISCUSSION...VAO
AVIATION...31
MARINE...VAO