643
FXUS62 KILM 301758
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
158 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Coastal Flood Advisory that was in effect for the lower Cape
Fear River, including downtown Wilmington, has been cancelled.
That should be the end of coastal flooding for this multi-day
event.

Elsewhere, aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z
TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Minor coastal flooding is likely done as astronomical tides
continue to improve.

- 2) Warming trend continues through Saturday, allowing
  temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next earnest rain
  chances return over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding is likely done as
astronomical tides continue to improve.

Minor coastal flooding is ongoing along the lower Cape Fear River,
including downtown Wilmington, as of this typing at 2 PM EDT. This
should be the last of the coastal flooding for this multi-day event,
as astronomical tides continue to come down. Really confident on
this idea at the coast especially.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend continues through Saturday, allowing
temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next rain chances return
over the weekend.

Ridging will continue to build through Saturday, keeping the warming
trend around. Temperatures warm up a degree or two every day through
Friday. Highs around 90F appear possible along and west of I-95 as
early as Wednesday, with those chances solidifying more by Thursday
and Friday (could potentially be 90-92F in some spots). Moisture
parameters pick up as well, with dewpoints soaring into the 60s, and
even into the lower 70s for the coastal areas Thursday through
Saturday. Friday in particular could be the most hot and humid day
of the week, with the heat index climbing up into the lower 90s in
most areas (in October, mind you).

Pattern starts to flip by Saturday. The heat ridge starts to push
offshore, while a very broad trough pattern that stretches from near
the upper Midwest all the way to New England helps to suppress the
ridge southward. Weak shortwave energy breaks off the broad trough
and will help produce scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder Saturday, but nothing appears to be a washout at this time.
These rain chances increase Sunday and into early next week, as part
of the broad trough in the Ohio Valley amplifies and sweeps through
the Southeast as a more organized frontal system. Still not
expecting severe weather with this event.

What is becoming more apparent is a significant cooldown coming
early next week, where highs may only get into the 70s. Bring back a
more legitimate fall!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Seabreeze starting to build
at the coastal terminals, allowing winds to come from the ESE. Winds
calm by 00-02Z this evening. Fog becomes a concern after 06Z
tonight. Boundary layer moistens up slightly more than it did last
night, promoting fog development, but the layer is still quite
shallow. Some high cirrus moving in overnight may try to limit fog
activity, but the cirrus deck itself is not very dense. Think
shallow ground fog will be the main story, but the layer itself will
likely be thick. IFR is becoming the trend more than MVFR at this
point, if not even LIFR inland. Fog should mix out by 13-14Z
Thursday morning. Towards the end of the period, winds remain calm
inland, while a weak seabreeze brings SE winds to the coastal
terminals again.

Extended Forecast...Moderate to high risk for late night/early
morning fog and low clouds due to increasing low-level moisture.
Moderate risk for showers/storms starting Sat afternoon at all
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Rather benign marine conditions expected through
the first half of the weekend, with a gentle breeze that fluctuates
a bit out of the E to S during the daytime, becoming a more variable
light breeze at night. Winds strengthen very slightly up to a
moderate breeze out of the E by Sunday ahead of a frontal system.
Seas remain at 1-2 ft through Wednesday, with perhaps some 3 ft
waves trying to sneak into the waters out 60 nm by Wednesday night.
In between light wind chop, look for a persistent long period
southeasterly swell at 10-14 seconds, and a secondary easterly swell
at 8-10 seconds.

Significant change starts building in on Monday, with a series of
cold fronts picking up strengthen and sweeping through the waters.
Winds back to the NE and rapidly increase up to a fresh breeze, with
wind gusts perhaps flirting with Small Craft Advisory thresholds by
late Monday. Seas start coming up towards 2-3 ft out 20 nm, up to 4
ft out 60 nm.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB