439
FXUS62 KILM 161037
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
635 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with the latest forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Drier air sticks around through Friday. Little to no rain
  chances.

- 2) Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier air sticks around through Friday. Little
to no rain chances.

Dry and comfortable conditions continue through Thursday. High
temperatures remain near normal for mid-September, but low dew
points have allowed overnight temperatures to drop into the
lower 60s across the area with a few of our colder spots dipping
into the upper 50s. High temperatures will gradually increase
each day through the end of the work week. Dry air will keep
rain chances near zero. The combination of warmer temperatures
and increasing dew points may produce afternoon convection as
early as Friday afternoon.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
possible this weekend.

Another front drops in from the north, and increased onshore
flow kicks up again. Dewpoints in the 70s return this weekend,
particularly by Sunday. The front itself looks relatively weak,
but enough to aid in afternoon convection along the seabreeze.
Highs remain in the lower 90s inland, mid 80s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure and associated dry air will secure VFR conditions through the period.
A few VFR CIGs possible in onshore flow this afternoon at coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook... VFR through Friday. Low chance of
restrictions this weekend, due to the return of afternoon
convection. Fog possible Friday and Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday... A fresh breeze out of the E to NE will
improve to a moderate breeze through tonight, improving even
further to a gentle breeze through Thursday night. Seas
initially at 3-5 ft within the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to 6
ft out 60 nm from shore. These seas improve towards 2-4 ft. By
Friday, brief onshore flow at a light to gentle breeze will
quickly flip back to E and NE flow by the weekend, going up
towards a moderate breeze at times. Seas range from 1-2 ft out
20 nm to up to 3 ft out 60 nm.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...IGB/21
DISCUSSION...IGB/21
AVIATION...BL/21
MARINE...IGB