686
FXUS62 KILM 021902
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
302 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes coming down the track with this afternoon`s
forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonably Cool Air Brings Well Below Temperatures
  Through Wednesday Night.

- 2) Warming Trend Kicks Off Thursday Through the Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably Cool Air Brings Well Below
Temperatures Through Wednesday Night.

Latest surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary well
offshore, while Canadian high pressure is starting to slide down
through the Great Lakes region. Cloud cover at 9000 ft or so has
snaked into the area, the thickest parts of it located in parts of
the Pee Dee region and the NC coastal plain. This is aided by vort
maxima traversing through the area from the north. The energy was
enough to squeeze out a few raindrops in Marlboro County, and may
happen again in some very isolated parts of the Pee Dee.

Upper low in the DelMarVa region will strengthen and allow its
associated trough to deepen, slowly sweeping through the Carolinas
and offshore tonight through midday Wednesday. Stiff northerly winds
aloft bring in much cooler air tonight. Skies clear late, and
temperatures will drop down into the lower 50s. Some of the cold
spots in Bladen and Pender Counties may even see the upper 40s under
radiational cooling. These lows hover right around 15 degrees below
normal. It`s meteorological summer, by the way.

Clear skies Wednesday, with highs in the lower 80s, perhaps upper
70s at the beaches. Lows Wednesday night in the mid 50s inland,
lower 60s at the coast.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming Trend Kicks Off Thursday Through the
Weekend.

Air mass modification begins earnestly Thursday, with temperatures
getting a little warmer each day through the weekend. Areas along
and west of I-95 look to see the lower 90s again by Friday, while
east of I-95 hovers in the mid-to-upper 80s. Dewpoints in the 60s
return late Friday into Saturday, but buoyancy will be very limited.
Forecast looks quite dry through the weekend, with perhaps only some
quite isolated seabreeze showers and storms Sunday afternoon.

More appreciable rain chances return early next week with the next
frontal system.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Ceilings at 9000 ft or so noted
at KFLO and KLBT, and may try to spread towards the coastal
terminals by this evening, though confidence is low on that idea.
KFLO may even see some -RA or -DZ, but that won`t have much of any
impact at all. Stiff northeasterly wind with gusts up to 25 kts will
cease after sunset tonight, veering towards the north after 06Z. SKC
Wednesday morning up through 18Z, with winds at 8-10 kts veering
slightly more to the northeast again.

Extended Forecast...VFR through Saturday, with only very low
confidence in fog possible early Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20
nm. Fresh to strong breeze out of the NE to NNE will continue until
at least midday Wednesday. Late Wednesday afternoon, gradient winds
finally start to loosen starts a moderate to fresh breeze. Seas at 3-
6 ft along the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to 6-10 ft along the
offshore waters out 60 nm.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory finally
expires at 2 AM EDT Thursday as winds and seas continue to improve.
Gentle to moderate breeze briefly backs to the north Thursday,
developing more of an onshore component through the weekend. After
the advisory concludes, seas at 2-5 ft along the coastal waters out
20 nm gradually come down to 1-3 ft by Friday and Saturday. Offshore
waters out 60 nm linger at 4-7 ft Thursday, but improve considerably
to 3-4 ft Friday and Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB