577
FXUS62 KILM 231910
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
310 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated with no real change in forecast thinking.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)The next few days will offer up some drought releif but also
the possibility of localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...The next few days will offer up some drought
releif but also the possibility of localized flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Cold front currently roughly bisecting NC from north to south.
This boundary is progged to drop into the area tonight and stall
along the coast. This mornings MHX RAOB sampled 2.12" of PW, a
value that will only increase as we head into Friday. Mid level
flow will become increasingly laden with weak vorticity maxima
keeping shower activity sustained along the front especially
late Friday. Areas along and south of the border should see the
heaviest rain as this occurs as well as overall during the next
3 days. Currently this means that the heaviest rain will be
focused along the coast, NC moreso than SC. No changes have been
made to the Flood Watch at this time though a later expiration
time seems likely. Less likely but still possible could be a
southern expansion if enough rain-cooled air pushes the boundary
a bit farther south than currently forecast. The drying trend
will begin gradually on Sunday though the trough may offer
another rain-making piece of energy on Monday according to
latest guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TAFs are complicated given the proximity of the nearly stationary
front, especially at KLBT/KILM. Bands of SHRA and a few TSRA will
move west to east resulting in some TEMPO CIG/VSBY restrictions at
these two sites. Expect coverage of storms to shift farther south
eventually impacting KFLO/KCRE/KMYR - but more-so during Friday.
Expect winds to be southerly south of the boundary, and variable in
the vicinity of the front.

Extended Forecast...Potential for periodic MVFR/IFR due to storms
remains possible Friday afternoon through late Saturday, most
numerous in the afternoon and evening. Conditions should start to
dry out Monday with predominant VFR returning, and prevailing
through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Tuesday... A cold front is approaching the waters
from the NW. This boundary will stall just inland keeping the marine
winds S to SW but very light as the stronger flow is moved out to
sea. Swell energy is fairly minimal and so with light winds seas
will settle to levels manageable to most mariners-though vsby
restriction in moderate to heavy rain still a hazard. Confidence in
the wind forecast is a bit lower on Sunday as the weakening front may
or may not be pushed south of at least some of the forecast area. A
southerly flow will become established by Monday but remain weak as
west Atlantic high pressure is displaced east of its normal
position.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Friday
     afternoon for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB