051
FXUS62 KILM 291814
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
214 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather through tonight. A weak
cold front will move through Saturday before stalling offshore
through mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front sinking into
Appalachia, while modest high pressure continues to have a hold
upon the sensible weather across the coastal Carolinas. A
cumulus deck has popped up within the last couple of hours at
5000-6000 ft, allowing for a picturesque day.

This cumulus will gradually thin out by this evening, allowing
for mostly clear skies to kick off the night. However, an upper
shortwave comes in from the west after midnight tonight,
bringing in some scattered cloud cover with it (mostly cirrus).
This keeps tonight`s lows from getting quite as low as last
night. Lows generally in the mid-to-upper 60s, about 2-4 degrees
warmer than the previous night.

The aforementioned weak frontal system will slowly drop
southward into the local forecast area Saturday, and may stall
out just south of I-95. This front is being "pushed" (such that
it is) by some extra shortwave energy aloft, which is part of a
broad upper low spinning up in Quebec. Heights drop very
slightly, and there`s a little bit more forcing in place than
what we`ve seen today. As a result, there is a slight chance of
showers that builds by midday and into the afternoon, with the
front itself and the weak seabreeze being the trigger points.
Overall, moisture is not impressive with this front, so the
activity is expected to be isolated to scattered at best. Even
the instability is lacking, and while a few rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out, frequent lightning is not expected. Highs
Saturday generally in the low-mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A frontal boundary resides offshore this period as weak waves
of low pressure form along the front. The front`s close
proximity in conjunction with cyclonic flow aloft will allow for
a low chance of rain over coastal areas and moreso over the
coastal waters. With NE flow and slightly below normal temps
(highs in the low 80s Sunday), not anticipating any strong
storms. By Sunday night, temps as low as the upr 50s are
possible in the typical colder spots with low/mid 60s likely
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sfc high pressure anchors north of the area Monday/Tuesday
leading to mainly dry weather (PoPs aob 20%) and slightly below
normal temps (highs in the low 80s). The upr-level trough over
the eastern CONUS further digs midweek with increasing onshore
moist low-level flow allowing for better rain chances...30-40%
Wednesday/Thursday...before a slight drying trend later in the
week. So the general theme of the week is frequent low/moderate
chances for rain esp. towards the coast and marine area with
continued slightly below normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Variable to
westerly winds at 5-9 kts expected this afternoon, while a SCT
to BKN cumulus deck at 5000-6000 ft lingers over the area. A
weak seabreeze will try to veer the winds to the southeast at
KCRE and KMYR, and perhaps KILM as well. Winds calm after sunset
this evening while the diurnal cumulus dissolves. Late tonight,
more high clouds come in from the west. ESE winds build in
towards the end of the TAF period, while a weak front may bring
in a few isolated showers by midday. Very little confidence in
SHRA hitting a specific terminal, so I went with VCSH by 16Z.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions are possible in isolated
SHRA or TSRA Saturday afternoon/evening, though confidence is
low. These chances modestly increase everyday through next
Wednesday, with scattered SHRA and TSRA possible each afternoon,
especially closer to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Southwesterly winds at 10 kts become more
light and variable by tonight, before becoming southeasterly at
10-15 kts by Saturday afternoon. Seas linger at 1-2 ft.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...A frontal boundary remains well
offshore as sfc high pressure builds north of the area. The
increasing NE flow over warm waters will lead to around a 50%
chance of SCA conditions Sunday night/Monday, from both seas up
to 6 ft and gust to 25 kt. As the high weakens its influence
thereafter through midweek, winds will similarly weaken, but
only slightly and while continuing out of the NE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MAS/IGB