513
FXUS62 KILM 140607
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
207 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda High Pressure remains in place over the next several
days. Warm and humid conditions will prevail along with the
potential for showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the
afternoon to early evening. A warming trend is expected during
the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Convection continues to develop over SC and move into the area
from the southwest. Deep layer moisture and instability continue
to feed showers and thunderstorms, enhanced by perturbations in
the WSW flow in the mid to upper levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A moderately unstable airmass will remain in place through the near
term. Afternoon convection will produce brief heavy downpours into
early evening before loss of heating allows things to settle down.
Expect decreasing activity from south to north after 00Z tonight,
with PoPs falling below 15% after 03-06Z. Small perturbations in SW
flow aloft will aid in convective initiation beginning early
Saturday, increasing in coverage as daytime heating gets underway.
Will continue with a range of generally 60-80% PoPs Saturday,
perhaps a little lower along the coast as the sea breeze pushes
inland. Lows tonight will be held above climo...mainly low-mid
70s...while highs Saturday should be capped in the mid 80s given
numerous showers/tstms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will continue through the period, with the
afternoon hours featuring the most radar returns. With such high PW
values in place only weak forcing will be needed to produce fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms. That forcing will come in the
form of copious mesoscale boundaries as well as a weakening
shortwave passing by to our north. What such a pattern does though
is make highlighting any particular area for seeing precipitation
difficult. Timing-wise though the coastal locales should see POPs
first as the seabreeze activates quickly with such a warm morning
start. Inland locales will then see POPs ramp up in the afternoon as
instability develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thunderstorm coverage to remain elevated on Monday with high PW
values and weak steering flow still in place. Things should start to
change on Tuesday as the mid level ridge just east of FL starts to
poke a ridge axis into the SE US. This weak subsidence paired with
the fact that it will start to channel shortwave energy further
north will lead to a decrease in rainfall coverage, though it will
still be above normal due to the deep layer moisture. As this
continues into Wednesday a more normal distribution/coverage of
storms appears likely while afternoon temperatures creep up a degree
or two each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Persistence forecast in place for aviation concerns the next 24
hours. With a very moist and moderately unstable airmass in
place, expect convective development to continue. Tough to
pinpoint exact timing, but area of shwrs/tstms upstream should
reach FLO by 07-08z and then LBT between 08-09z. Coastal
terminals should see possible shwrs by daybreak. Also expect
period of patchy fog and low stratus in the pre-dawn hours.
S-SW Winds will be a bit stronger today with higher gusts in
the afternoon. Overall expect intermittent convective
development through the day with brief periods of sub-VFR in
shwrs/tstms.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to intermittent
thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...SSW winds on the order of 15 kts will persist
tonight and Saturday as Bermuda high pressure remains in place.
Showers and thunderstorms should remain isolated across the waters
through the evening hours, becoming a little more prevalent late
tonight and through Saturday. Seas will be generally 3 ft, with 4
footers in the outer waters and in the vicinity of Frying Pan
Shoals.

Saturday night through Wednesday...  Bermuda high pressure will keep
wind direction fairly unchanging and from the SW and in the 10-15kt
range through about Tuesday. An inland surface trough may add a few
kt of wind speed thereafter. Wave bulletins show seas remaining in
the 3-4 ft range with a 5 second wind wave the more dominant
compared to the 8-9 second SE swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...ILM