463
FXUS62 KILM 150100
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
900 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Moderate Rip Current Risk in effect for Wednesday for mainly
Pender and New Hanover County Beaches only. A slowly fading ENE
fresh swell at 6 to 7 second periods and a low astronomical
tide approaching -0.5 MLLW due to a new moon, will combine to
enhance a moderate rip threat for the mentioned locations.

No large scale forecast changes since the last update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Hot and largely rain-free returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and largely rain-free returns.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WV imagery shows strong mid level ridging over the nation`s
midsection, elongated southeastward into the MidAtlantic and
still plenty of moisture into southern NC and the Gulf States.
This evening`s shower activity should be the last we see for a
while, at least of any significance as the ridge will continue
to expand southeastward, the highest heights aloft remaining
north of the area. Meanwhile at the surface winds will gradually
turn to the S and SW over the next day or two building humidity
in addition to the heat. Several days of Heat Advisories appear
likely starting Friday if not Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated showers dotting Southeast NC and Northeast SC should
dissipate by or up to a few hrs after sunset. Not enough
coverage to warrant mentioning within individual terminal
forecasts. Guidance continues to depict both fog and low
stratus forming inland overnight, especially where winds
progged to go calm across the inland terminals. Will bring MVFR
with conditions on the cusp of IFR for those inland locales.
VFR will dominate the remainder of WEd once the fog and/or low
stratus dissipates Wed morning. May observe FEW/SCT VFR Cu
during the aftn with enough low level moisture avbl. Winds Wed
generally NE around 5 kt. Sea breeze will result in winds
veering to the SE 5 to 10 kt at the coast. Sea breeze may make
it to the inland zones after 22Z.

Extended Forecast... High pressure will slowly build into the
region by midweek and persist into the upcoming weekend with
predominantly VFR conditions thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Sunday...
As high pressure moves offshore winds will become light and variable
through most of Wednesday (though veering will try to come and
dominate). It may take until Thursday  now until a more typical S to
SW flow becomes re-established. This should interrupt the currently
established easterly swell to shorten the dominant period as the
admittedly diminutive wind waves become the dominant wave. Heading
into the end of the period the persistence of the fetch paired with a
thermally-induced Piedmont trough strengthens the wind fields by
about a category or two, which is still quite the norm for the date.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB