208
FXUS62 KILM 161001
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
601 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)The heat and humidity continues for the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The heat and humidity continues for the next
several days.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Though slightly flattening in amplitude
mid level ridging will be in place across the Gulf States though
Monday with some slight amplification and retrogression thereafter.
Heat Index values still in advisory realm save for Cape Fear Region
which will see the front lift through back to the north later in the
day. A healthy piedmont trough develops Monday and Tuesday
bolstering the warmth with 850mb temps approaching an impressive
24C...75F at a mile elevation! At first Monday seemed a certainty
for an Excessive Heat Watch but one possibly significant uncertainty
has caused us and neighboring WFOs to hold off. That uncertainty is
the development of some very steep hydrolapse rates that are
forecast to develop in the boundary layer and dewpoints could drop
several degrees each afternoon in very deep mixing. This uncertainty
will repeat itself on Tuesday which otherwise may be another
candidate for Heat Warning criteria. Additionally although the
forecast remains dry both days the GFS in particular shows some PVA-
induced convection that could disrupt the mid August sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected outside of a low to moderate risk
for cig/vsby restrictions at the start of the period. Maintained
PROB30 groups for showers/storms, especially this aftn/early
eve, as a lingering front and sea breeze spark convection.
Cig/vsby restrictions will be possible again tonight.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions are expected much of the
week outside of any convection. Afternoon to early evening
storms could result in brief restrictions at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Thursday... Front both lifts northward and
dissipates today allowing for gentle southerly flow to return. Wind
waves rather minimal and SE swell energy not really arriving until
Tuesday. For mariners this will only represent a subtle change in
the 2-3 ft dominant wave forecast as the 3 footers will become more
noticeable.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087-096-099-109-110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB