Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
079 FXUS62 KILM 161256 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 856 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda High Pressure will remain off the coast through next week. Temperatures will increase Thursday, Friday, and Saturday as high pressure strengthens aloft and a dangerous combination of heat and humidity may develop. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible early next week. && .UPDATE... 12z soundings from CHS and MHX revealed an airmass very similar today yesterday with moderate uncapped CAPE around 1500 J/kg and precipitable water values above the already-high seasonal norms. This should yield another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Once the seabreeze circulation develops the trend should be for less coastal convection and more inland convection this afternoon. Lack of wind shear should preclude storm organization but high precipitable water could help produce locally heavy rainfall. This is a barotropic airmass with essentially no difference in temperatures or weather between the Carolinas, Florida, and the Caribbean today. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Typical summer day with afternoon showers/storms. There is still some question on coverage as formation will be more with smaller scale features, but thoughts are that things will start to form along the sea breeze and then graduate more towards along outflow boundaries. No severe weather is anticipated but rain may be heavy at times. Activity will calm down into tonight where confidence on fog is low given a persistent southerly breeze. Highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... At the sfc, a southerly return flow around the Bermuda High will continue. Ridge will continue to build in the mid levels with H5 heights increasing to 596 dam and deep westerly downslope flow in the low to mid levels by Fri. High temps in the in the 90 to 95 range on Thurs will increase further to 94 to 98 range on Fri. This will lead to increasing heat risk and potential for a Heat Advisory. Lows in the mid to upper 70s will not provide much relief at night. May see a front/trough run by to the north Fri night, but ridge should keep convection limited for the most part. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Hot and humid weather will continue into the weekend with temps well into the 90s. Expect potential for heat headlines to continue. By Sunday, the ridge gets suppressed a bit to the south with shortwave riding by to the north. May see lingering trough/front helping to increase chc of convection over the Carolinas into early next week with heat letting up a bit and diminishing chc of heat risk or headlines. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low coverage MVFR is hanging around this morning with clouds around 1.5-2 kft. These may fill in here and there but only briefly as we head into the afternoon. Showers and storms should pop up along the sea breeze and migrate inland as per usual with MVFR CIGs possible and MVFR/IFR VSBYs as rain could be heavy at times. Winds will increase to ~10 kts this afternoon, closer to 15 kts at the coast. Initial thoughts for tonight is that fog won`t be an issue and patchy at best if present due to the overnight breeze lingering. Low stratus may be possible. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Southerly winds generally 10-15 kts, highest in the afternoon. Seas generally 3-4 ft with a SSE swell at 2-4 ft and 6 seconds. Thursday through Sunday...Bermuda High will maintain SW winds up to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, especially in aftn sea breeze near shore. Seas will mainly be in the 3 to 4 ft range. A longer period SE swell will mix in. A front/trough will drop southward Fri night into the weekend with winds turning slightly more WSW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...LEW MARINE...RGZ/LEW