086
FXUS62 KILM 091843
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
143 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Wednesday will wind up seasonable but a late day cold front will
usher in chilly air once again. Friday begins a warmup where
weekend highs wind up in the 60s before another cold front later
Sunday. Neither of these boundaries will bring any significant
rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Stratus has been slow to erode through the morning, but dry air has
finally cleared out most of SE NC and is thinning the cloud deck
across NE SC early this afternoon. Clearing will allow temps to fall
into the mid/upper 20s overnight, at least away from the immediate
coast, as winds go calm under high pressure. SW flow and moderating
temperatures return on Wednesday as low pressure swings across the
Great Lakes. Mixing to about 2000-2200 ft Wednesday afternoon will
tap into a low-level jet, allowing gusts of 30-35 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Channeled vorticity streaks across northern NC Wednesday night
under the southern periphery of cutoff low north of the Great Lakes.
This shoves a rain-free cold front through the area and well
offshore. Low level wind fields will weaken in the ensuing CAA
regime Thursday afternoon so much less breezy than Wed night. The
high builds in Thursday night while weakening but some high, thin
clouds will be building in from the northwest along a very long and
expansive upper jet running from the DelMarva to British Columbia,
Canada.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warm front lifts through early Friday, though the WAA only looks
strong enough for a return of near-seasonable temperatures by
afternoon. WAA continues over the weekend but in a very weak and
disorganized manner. As such some of the operational guidance
showing both afternoons warming well into the 60s seems a bit
ambitious and the more tempered highs of the NBM were retained. Cold
front arriving Sunday not only ends the warmth but could also offer
a shot of modified Arctic air.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR ceilings eroding from north to south this afternoon, and should
allow clearing at KMYR/KCRE/KFLO over the next few hours. VFR
expected overnight and Wednesday, with SW gusts developing late
morning Wednesday.

LLWS may develop for a few hours Wednesday evening. VFR expected
Wednesday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Light winds expected overnight as high pressure
pushes across the waters. Low pressure will track across the Great
Lakes region Wednesday, resulting in SW flow developing across the
waters. A low-level just will push over the waters Wednesday
afternoon, and although mixing will be somewhat limited by a stable
marine layer, gusts are expected to reach 25 to 30 kt at times
during the afternoon, prompting the issuance of a Small Craft
Advisory starting at 18Z.

Wednesday night through Sunday... Period initializes with advisory-
worthy wind and seas following moderately strong cold front. What
weak swell components, if any, will be much over shadowed by the
wind driven 4-5 second waves. Both abate as Thursday progresses but
the real improvement comes Friday as the center of the high sinks
south and east and a weak warm front turns our flow back to
southerly. W to SW winds over the weekend will increase albeit
gradually as the next front approaches.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...ILM