195
FXUS62 KILM 020219
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1019 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will maintain control into the
middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could
lead to a few showers. Slightly better rain chances Sunday
into Monday as a somewhat stronger front moves into the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Small Craft Advisory for southeast NC coastal waters has been
extended to 5am (9z) for lingering 6 ft seas and gusty northeast
winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather continues with similar conditions for Tuesday.
Offshore low pressure will be pulling away from us tonight and
moving off to the north through Tuesday. With ridging high
pressure to our west this will make for a lingering overnight
breeze and then breezy NE winds again Tuesday. Skies should be
clear outside of afternoon cu, and a stray light shower may be
possible at the coast later in the day. Highs in the lower 80s
and lows near 60, cooler inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure to our north weakens early in the period while
frontal boundary remains stalled well to our north. After a
slightly cool Tuesday night temperatures will return to normal.
Flow aloft remains cyclonic but the column will be far too dry
to support much in the way of clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The large upper low in the Great Lakes will have another large
low dive in from the west keeping the trough in place after a
slight reconfiguration on Thursday, bringing the slightest
chance of showers. On Friday another piece enters the trough but
this one acts as a kicker. This allows a cold front to start
approaching the area. This will bring a late week warmup as the
prefrontal flow turns southerly. Dewpoints may rise enough to
support isolated thunderstorms on mesoscale boundaries. The
front will decelerate and could stall in the area over the
weekend. With limited moisture flux ahead of the boundary this
doesn`t mean a washed out weekend but it does represent the best
rain chances of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail with a few high clouds overnight
replaced by scattered diurnal cumulus around 6 kft Tuesday
afternoon. Winds relatively light out of the NNE, with gusts
around 15 kts Tuesday. Stray light shower possible at coastal
terminals Tuesday afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Rain chances could return Saturday with
intermittent restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Small Craft conditions should end from SW to
NE tonight as the low tracks further from the coast, the
gradient relaxing some. NE winds will still be ~20 kts
overnight, starting to come down to 15-20 through the day
Tuesday. Seas 3-5 ft.

Tuesday Night through Friday... The high pressure that had been
located to our north for so long will finally weaken allowing
for winds and seas to abate. Flow will also start to veer away
from it`s unusual NE direction. SW flow then takes over late in
the period as a cold front approaches from the NW. This boundary
will be decelerating and so is not expected to push through the
waters during the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Strong Longshore Current:

NE winds 10 to 20 kt will continue to affect the nearshore
waters, resulting in a moderate to strong longshore current
along East and Southeast facing beaches. South facing beaches
of Brunswick County will observe a weak to moderate East to
West longshore current. Relatively speaking, the E-W longshore
current will be stronger across the Western Brunswick County
beaches then the Eastern.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the beaches of
Pender, New Hanover, Horry (Myrtle Beach south) and Georgetown
Counties for Tuesday Sep 2nd. Modest 6 to 8 second period ENE-E
pseudo or fresh swell will continue affecting the surf across
the mentioned beaches.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MBB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...