177
FXUS62 KILM 071834
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
134 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a lull in the activity tonight, rain chances increase
Monday with the next weather system. Colder and drier weather
briefly arrives Tuesday, with temperatures rebounding towards
normal for the second half of the week. Bitterly cold weather
returns by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Moisture/precip streaming out of the northern Gulf this afternoon
across the SE US will continue through tonight. Although this will
largely stay south of the forecast area, 20-30% PoPs across our
southern and eastern zones will be warranted to account for the
potential for few hundredths of QPF on the fringes of this activity.
A shortwave will cross the MS River Valley late tonight and shunt
this moisture mostly off the SE coast before 12Z, but will also
spread additional moisture and lift into the area during the day
Monday. Also Monday, surface high pressure will build across the NE
US and extend southward into the Carolinas. This cool wedge,
combined with clouds and precip will keep Monday high temps 15
degrees below normal, and therefore we have undercut NBM guidance by
a few degrees as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Base of the shortwave trough is basically right over the area Monday
evening, pushing offshore by early Tuesday morning. This takes the
last of the moisture, with chilly high pressure settling in from the
north. Dry and cold this forecast period. Lows in the mid-to-upper
20s Monday night. Highs only reach the mid-to-upper 40s Tuesday,
running nearly 15 degrees below normal for early-mid December. Lows
bounce back a bit Tuesday night, generally in the lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Air mass modification kicks in Wednesday, allowing highs to shoot up
into the upper 50s to lower 60s, hovering right around or just a
degree or two below normal. Thursday looks about the same, if not
just a touch warmer, with lows each night around 40. A weak front
pushes through the area Wednesday through Thursday, but should only
manifest itself in some mid-to-high-level clouds.

Pattern starts to change Thursday night through Friday as a trough
digs in and swings through the Southeast, pushing another cold front
through the area Friday. While this one looks like a stronger front
than the Wednesday/Thursday front, it looks to only produce a slight
chance of rain. Clouds and rain block some extra warmth and keep
Friday high temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s. Forecast dries out
again by next weekend, but bitterly cold temperatures return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR ceilings currently spreading northward across eastern SC and
into SE NE, and should reach KILM within by 19-20Z. There is not
much to indicate these will lift over the next few hours, but beyond
that, confidence is low. Light rain may impact KMYR/KCRE this
evening before moisture shifts east, then additional moisture and
rain chances move in from the west Monday morning, along with
potential periods of IFR ceilings after 12Z.

IFR likely Monday night. VFR returns Tuesday lasting through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Relatively light NE flow will continue across the
waters through tonight. On Monday, surface high building across the
NE US and Mid-Atlantic region will extend southward across the
interior Carolinas, and the pressure gradient will tighten up
between this ridge and a surface trough off the coast. Winds will
back to the north Monday and increase to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt.
Seas will build to 6 ft near and north of Frying Pan Shoals by mid-
morning Monday, and will also build to 6 ft across the southern
waters by late afternoon/early evening. Therefore will be raising a
Small Craft Advisory for Monday with the afternoon forecast package,
starting at 12Z north of Little River Inlet, and starting at 18Z
south of Little River.

Monday Night through Friday...Small Craft Advisory continues until
10 AM EST Tuesday. From there, gradient winds loosen and gradually
back towards the west through early Wednesday, with seas coming down
to 2-3 ft. Winds continue to back slightly more to the southwest by
midday Wednesday, and the gradient tightens again ahead of another
frontal system. Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed late
Wednesday into early Thursday. After the front moves through, winds
veer to the northwest, decreasing to 10-15 kts for a bit and then
poking back up to more like 15 kts by Friday. Seas at 2-4 ft
Thursday afternoon through Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...CRM/IGB