Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
457 FXUS62 KILM 221809 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 209 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast for Wednesday and Thursday had dried slightly. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms today, turning cool and cloudy with a few light showers Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms today, turning cool and cloudy with periods of rain Wednesday and Thursday. Very persistent area of showers with an embedded lightning strike or two has plagued the coast this morning. There are recent signs of this activity weakening and developing inland in a more organized fashion where there has been some heating. Pops could linger into the evening hours inland. By Wednesday a developing Rex block will push a strong NE flow into the area limiting any rainfall to drizzle or sprinkles and a prolonged period of NE winds and cooler weather. Highs will mostly be in the 70s approaching 80 once again late in the weekend while lows all be pegged into the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Large and persistent area of showers and an occasional thunderstorm continues to linger offshore via what seems to be associated with the trough well to the east. However with partly sunny skies inland the energy is starting to transfer inland and in a few hours expect this area to be more inundated with stronger convection with the coast drying out. The forecast has been trended in this direction and I may even take out the thunder along the coast before post time. Wednesday should feature MVFR cigs all areas as cold air advection advances in from the NE with perhaps some drizzle and or light rain but little else. Extended Outlook...High likelihood of MVFR/IFR ceilings Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE... A very broad baroclinic zone resides just to the north of the area and is expanding in scope as a classic Rex blocking pattern develops. This will eventually send down a shipment of NE winds that will persist for several days and prompt a Small Craft Advisory initially then possibly a Gale Warning. Significant seas will be persistent with the winds with 6-8 feet outer waters. The shadow of Caper Fear will hold seas to around 4 feet but north of this area the higher seas will be in play. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK KEY MESSAGES...SHK DISCUSSION...SHK AVIATION...SHK MARINE...SHK