006
FXUS62 KILM 301722
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
120 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Discussions updated for 18Z aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and a few thunderstorms will precede a strong
cold front which will move through the area this evening.

2) Expect a few periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms
Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and a few thunderstorms will precede a strong
cold front which will move through the area this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Dense mid and high level clouds produced via isentropic lift on the
320-325K surfaces could drop some light rain across eastern South
Carolina this morning. Of greater concern is the possibility that
deeper convective showers and thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon once sufficient surface heating and destabilization has
occurred.

Assuming surface temperatures creep into the mid 80s, the GFS
and NAM suggest CAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range should develop
this afternoon with little to no capping. Lapse rates should be
reasonably steep from the surface up through 600 mb, then less
impressive higher up. A weak shortwave in the northwesterly flow
aloft and low level convergence in the vicinity of a prefrontal
trough arriving from the north may be enough to trigger the
development of showers and storms.

Bulk shear values near 20 knots could support loose multicell
organization, but convective parameters don`t look overly favorable
for organized severe weather. Dry air entrainment could produce
locally gusty winds if convection can become deep enough.

HREF and RRFS ensembles suggest the best potential for convection
will be in the 2pm-6pm timeframe. The actual surface cold front
should move southward across the area between 7-10pm, accompanied by
a few additional elevated showers.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Expect a few periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms
Monday through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
With a cold front well south of the region on Sunday, surface low
pressure is expected to form and track along the boundary during
Sunday night and Monday. Operational and ensemble guidance systems
have shown a general upward trend in rainfall amounts over the last
few runs, with the highest amounts in SC. With the region on the
north side of a surface low, expect an area of light to moderate
rain to develop and track eastward, mainly affecting the SC zones.
Exactly how far north this rain reaches is hard to determine at this
juncture, but rainfall amounts are expected to range from a trace to
a few tenths of an inch.

Meanwhile, another cold front is expected to slide down from the
north on Monday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
forming along and ahead of it. Uncertainty exists with regard to
when those showers and isolated storms start to nose in from the
north, ranging from the middle of the afternoon to the middle of the
night. However, little to no shower activity is expected until this
band comes down, so a sizable amount of our NC counties may end up
dry but mostly cloudy for much of Monday. Rainfall amounts will vary
with this band as precipitable water values surge up to 1.6-1.8",
bringing localized heavy rain amounts as high as 1" in less than an
hour to some areas while others in between the heavy showers see
between a trace to perhaps a tenth inch of rainfall.

Finally, a sharpening shortwave trough is expected to pivot down
from the north on Tuesday, helping to shove the cold front well to
the south. Another round of showers is expected to accompany this
shortwave, with the best chances for renewed development near the
front itself. Thus, the position of the front will play an important
role in who sees additional rainfall, although amounts will mostly
be in the hundredths to perhaps a few tenths of an inch at most.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ongoing convection over southeast NC looks to be on the way toward
dissipation based on radar trends and short term guidance.  Have
included tempo or prob groups at coastal terminals for one to three
hours, otherwise expecting mainly vfr conditions for the valid taf
period.  Main story will be a wind shift to the NE to E in the 00Z
to 06Z time frame with speeds expected to be invof 10 KT with higher
gusts.

Extended Forecast...There is a moderate potential for MVFR/IFR
conditions to develop in scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Generally light winds are expected today with
veering wind directions as a cold front approaches the Carolinas
from the north. Patchy showers could become more impactful as
several models show scattered thunderstorms or even a short squall
line possibly developing and moving southward after 2 pm. If storms
were to develop, the most likely location and timing appears to be
between Myrtle Beach and Cape Fear between 2 pm and 6 pm. Later
models should be able to adjust that window.

Of equal or even greater concern to mariners will be the arrival of
the cold front this evening. The front should pass Wrightsville
Beach around 7 pm and Myrtle Beach around 10 pm, and will be
accompanied by a shift to NE 20-25 kt winds with gusts to 30 kt
possible. Seas should quickly build to 4-6 feet after midnight and a
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for tonight.

Sunday through Wednesday... Breezy SCA-level northeast winds on
Sunday morning will gradually subside and veer to easterly as high
pressure builds in and moves offshore during the afternoon, with
25 kts gusts expected to cease by early afternoon. As the high
shifts increasingly offshore on Sunday night, expect winds to
continue veering to southeasterly and remain in place through
Monday at speeds between 5-15 kts. Another cold front is then
expected to slide southward on Monday night, with winds turning
to between northerly and northeasterly for Tuesday into
Wednesday with speeds as high as 15-20 kts in the 0-20nmi zones
between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning.

Seas will subside through Sunday night into the 2-4 ft range in the
0-20nmi zones and 4-6 ft range in the 20-60nmi zones in tandem with
the decreasing winds. Seas hold in this range into early Tuesday
before the next front brings another round of elevated seas, with 6
ft seas possible in the 0-20nmi zones near and east of Cape Fear for
a short time starting late Tuesday. A primary driver of the elevated
seas will be northeasterly swells with a period between 8-10 sec.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/ABW
DISCUSSION...TRA/ABW
AVIATION...31
MARINE...TRA/ABW