Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
438 FXUS62 KILM 271812 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 212 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should provide mainly dry weather with below normal temperatures through Friday before moving offshore. Low pressure may develop to our south along a stalled front this weekend bringing the potential for showers through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A large area of high pressure will cover at least the eastern third of the nation through the near term, suppressing frontal moisture well south of the area. This will bring a continuation of light winds and clear skies, the only real forecast issue is figuring out tonihght`s lows pending a possible degree of radiational cooling. With a light onshore component developing conditions don`t look quite as ideal as last eve. Highs tomorrow will be similar to those of this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will stay in control through the majority of the day Friday leading to mostly dry weather until it moves offshore later in the day. Moisture will start to recover Friday night with low rain chances creeping in from the SW but the period should still remain mostly dry for the majority of the CWA. I added some radiational cooling towards the end of the night for Thursday night but it will depend on if cloudy skies scatter out several hours before sunrise. Lows in the lower 60s will warm into the mid 60s Friday night as the high departs. Highs near normal in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Uncertainty increases for the long term period as weather will depend on high pressure to our north and a stalled front offshore. The high will serve as drier air that will squash showers, while flow around the front offshore will bring more moisture supportive of shower formation. Where the delineation between these sets up will determine what our CWA sees from the weekend through early next week. On the current forecast track, the real bulk of dry air is just outside of our area with moisture tight at the coast. This is looking like day to day shower/storm chances highest near the coast, maxing out in the 30-40% range. Overtime these POPs should be able to be refined based on where these features set up. Below normal temps look to continue through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR with clear skies and light N winds that will turn onshore along the coast as high pressure well to our north moves slightly eastward. Extended Outlook... High confidence in VFR prevailing through Friday. Increasing rain chances could bring intermittent flight restrictions starting late Friday. Day to day showers and storms may be possible through the weekend and early next week. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...High pressure centered well north of the area, it`s center shifting slight eastward. Winds will remain light as they veer slightly from north to NE. There is still a minor swell component that continues to fade. The diminutive wind chop will remain the dominant wave. Thursday Night through Monday...High pressure will move offshore Friday with NE winds becoming S ~10 kts. E flow will then set up for the weekend as we sit between high pressure to the north and a stalled front offshore. Waves will be ~1-3 ft. The PG will increase Sunday into Monday with E to NE flow increasing to 20+ kts and waves 3-5 ft, SCA conditions possible. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...MBB MARINE...MBB/LEW