172
FXUS62 KILM 300729
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
329 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for 06Z TAFs. Coastal Flood Advisory
issued for coastal zones and the Lower Cape Fear River for the
morning high tide. High rip risk now in effect for New Hanover
county beaches today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A dry cold front will move south across the region tonight;
followed by near normal temperatures, breezy conditions and
marine headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A dry cold front will move south across the
region tonight; followed by near normal temperatures, breezy
conditions and marine headlines.

Weak surface high pressure and ridging aloft will lead to one
more day with temperatures above normal and light winds. A dry
cold front will move south across the area tonight. Northeast
winds will increase following the passage of the front, after
midnight. High pressure building down the coast this weekend
will drop temperatures near normal. Gusty winds Sat decrease in
the afternoon as winds aloft weaken and drop off in the evening
due to loss of heating/mixing. Another northeast surge arrives
late Sat night leading to an increase in gusts again on Sun.

What had looked like a potential rain event for the start of
next week has turned dry. Most of the guidance has now backed
off on rain for the local area. The GFS is stubbornly holding
onto rainfall Sun night into Mon, but this setup/pattern is
typically one where the areas ends up dry. Gulf Coast convection
in conjunction with a weak shortwave lifting northeast through
the OH Valley almost always leads to little to no rainfall for
the eastern Carolinas. The convection to the southwest will
blossom off the FL East Coast and then travel northeast,
passing just offshore.

Rain chances the middle of next week look better, but still
have low confidence. Some big disagreements between the
GFS/EC/CMC with the evolution of the pattern aloft and sharp 5h
trough vs cutoff low. Cutoff lows are notoriously difficult to
pin down, especially 6 or 7 days out.

Despite decreased winds tidal anomalies are still running around
1 foot, which has once again required issuance of Coastal Flood
Advisories for the area, the coast and the Lower Cape Fear
River, for the midday-ish high tide.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Currently VFR across the area, but inland from the coast calm
winds along with increased boundary layer moisture seem destined
to generate MVFR/IFR fog and ceilings. Best chances will be at
LBT, although all sites will likely see at least MVFR fog.
Abundant dry air aloft will lead to any MVFR/IFR conditions
rapidly transitioning to VFR once the sun comes up and a bit of
mixing develops. All sites VFR by 14Z with light northeast winds
today, becoming more onshore for coastal terminal in the
afternoon following the passage of a weak sea breeze. Potential
for MVFR/IFR visibility and ceilings late tonight prior to the
arrival of the backdoor cold front. Front should reach the area
06Z-08Z. However, have low confidence in tonight`s MVFR/IFR
potential at this time.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Sunday. Potential for MVFR
ceilings Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure today will be reinforced by the passage of a
backdoor cold front tonight into Saturday. Winds may exceed
Small Craft thresholds across the coastal waters and seas will
exceed 6 ft resulting in another long duration Small Craft
event. Much uncertainty exists by early next week. However,
maritime conditions will most likely not be favorable through
Tuesday given the resiliency of the fetch. While 4-7 ft seas
will be common across the coastal waters seas will be steeper
offshore aided by the fetch direction and the Gulf Stream.
Increasing chances for showers and possible a few thunderstorms,
especially for the offshore waters early next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ107.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ108.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     this afternoon for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III