140
FXUS62 KILM 170224
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1024 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid summertime weather will continue with
temperatures above normal for most of the week. Frontal passage
late Thursday will lead to a slight uptick in rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big updates made to the public/marine forecasts with the
latest update. Showers/storms struggling to make much southward
progress so far but some guidance still indicating such
potential, especially in NC with lower confidence in SC. Rain
should generally be over by daybreak. The severe weather threat
still looks very low, with just a bit better risk for flash
flooding from heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Convection has been slow to fire up over the CWA so far this
afternoon, and based on Cu development so far, it looks like
best chances over the next few hours will be along the I-95
corridor and points north and west. With the activity over SE NC
and SE NC being largely driven by surface convergence and
little significant upper- level dynamics, it should weaken soon
after sunset. Moderate surface- based instability will remain in
place Tuesday, however 5H heights build a little from the ridge
off the SE coast, and should limit areal coverage of convection
to scattered at best, and mainly focused on the sea breeze
front and Piedmont trough. Overnight lows will fall to the mid
70s, with highs Tuesday in the low 90s, and heat indices around
100.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep ridging lingers off the Southeast coast through the short
term period. Soundings are showing a little bit of a subsidence
inversion around 700mb as the ridge expands some northwestward.
With plenty of instability and a rather weak cap, isolated
convection is certainly possible Wednesday afternoon especially
along the sea breeze and Piedmont trough. Above normal temps
with lows in the mid 70s both Tuesday and Wednesday night. Highs
Wednesday around 92-94F with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s -
heat indices in the 100-104F is very likely but less confidence
in hitting the 105F mark for an advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Despite lingering subsidence inversion and drier air aloft,
pops increase Thursday afternoon and evening (to 25-40%) as a
500mb trough and weak surface front approaches, moving across
the area late Thursday/early Friday. Heat indices Thursday
afternoon will again likely eclipse 100F, and may approach the
105F criteria mark. Fairly typical summer day on Friday with
near normal temps and afternoon convection. Mid-upper ridge
builds over the eastern US Saturday through Monday, which will
lead to a warming trend for late weekend/early next week. Low
chance pops currently centered along sea breeze and NE SC (where
ridging is forecasted to be weakest) for Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC
through the 00Z TAF period. The main concern will be
restrictions from showers/storms, mainly through around 06Z
tonight and again starting around 17Z Tue, although slightly
lower moisture levels and increasing heights aloft should yield
less rain coverage. Low cigs down to IFR levels possible again
late tonight into Tue morning but confidence too low to mention
yet.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will maintain a
moderate SW wind on the order of 15 kts through Tuesday.
Showers/tstms should remain isolated to widely scattered in
nature, A southerly 5 sec wind wave around 3 ft will persist,
along with an 8 sec SE swell, around 1-2 ft.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Ridging offshore will maintain
southwesterly winds across the local coastal waters through
Saturday, around 15-20 kts through Thursday decreasing to 10 kts
or less Friday afternoon and Saturday as the ridge slowly
expands westward. Seas 3-4 ft Tuesday night through Thursday
night lowers to 2-3 ft Friday and Saturday, primarily SSW wind
wave with a weak SE swell mixed in. Best chance for scattered
thunderstorms over the coastal waters will be Thursday night
through Friday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...VAO/CRM