906
FXUS62 KILM 011120
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
620 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12Z Aviation discussion has been updated.

No significant forecast changes other than to adjust cessation
timing of light snow across the forecast area. Additional
accumulations should be very light as precip rates and depth of
saturation have both decreased.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heavy snow will continue for part of the area
overnight. Hazardous travel and impacts to infrastructure will
continue for several days to come.

2) A very cold air mass paired with snowfall will result
in dangerous cold and record low temperatures. Wind chill
temperatures below 15-20 degrees will linger through at least
Monday night/Tuesday morning.

3) Dangerous marine conditions this weekend with a Gale Warning
in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1) Heavy snow will continue for part of the area
overnight. Hazardous travel and impacts to infrastructure will
continue for several days to come.

Latest radar trends indicate that heavy snowfall is occurring
for most of southeastern NC and extreme northeastern SC. HREF
and deterministic hi-res guidance suggests that additional
snowfall could accumulate up to 6 additional inches. Satellite
corroborates these incredible snowfall rates with cloud tops
similar to a mini convective pulse. Locally higher amounts are
certainly possible where some of these intense bands reside.

For the remainder of northeastern SC, the mesolow and upper very
max is gradually pushing offshore, just south of the Myrtle
Beach area. Places around Georgetown are finally starting to see
some flakes after being plagued by a dry slot for much of the
day. Accumulations will be lighter as precip rates remain light
in this region. Additional accumulations up to 3 inches will be
possible, primarily due to the atypical snow ratios. Some
locally higher amounts will be possible.

Steadier snow will gradually transition to snow showers after
sunrise. Strong subsidence and dry air will quickly bring an end
to any precip this morning. Clear skies will follow, but
brutally cold air and blustery winds will maintain very cold
conditions.


KEY MESSAGE 2) A very cold air mass paired with snowfall will result
in dangerous cold and record low temperatures. Wind chill
temperatures below 15-20 degrees will linger through at least
Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Dangerous cold is being observed across the area early this
morning and this will continue through early Monday. Blustery
winds, snow pack, and temperatures just below freezing will
maintain wind chills around 20 degrees. An Extreme Cold Warning
remains in effect through Monday morning. Lows tonight will
easily approach single digits and light winds will push wind
chills to near zero or slightly below. Temperatures climb into
the mid or upper 30s on Monday with overnight lows in the mid to
upper teens. Another Cold Weather Advisory may be needed late
Monday into early Tuesday.

Nearly all of our climate sites could see record-breaking low
temperatures for several days. Record lows for Feb 1-3 are in the
climate section below for reference.


KEY MESSAGE 3) Dangerous marine conditions this weekend with a
Gale Warning in effect.

Marine section below has more info on marine hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Snow is beginning to taper off from west to east across the
region this morning. Blowing snow and lightly falling snow will
maintain IFR VIS across the region, even as CIGs increase to
2-3k feet AGL. VFR will dominate by mid morning at all
terminals. Gusty winds are likely with stronger gusts near the
coast up to 35 knots possible. Winds become light and out of the
W tonight under clear skies.

Extended Forecast... Mainly VFR conditions for the early work
week period. Mid-week restrictions are possible as a cold front
pushes through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday... Gale warning remains in effect. Latest surface
observations show gusts approaching 40-45 knots. These winds
will continue this morning as a deepening coastal low pushes
offshore today. Gale force gusts continue through this evening
with a period of breezy winds thereafter. Seas 5-8 feet will
gradually improve to 4-6 feet this evening.

Monday through Thursday... Sub-SCA conditions for Monday
through Wednesday as sfc high pressure passes off to the south.
The next cold front crosses the area late Wednesday, and post-
frontal CAA will likely lead to at least marginal SCA conditions
Thursday over all coastal waters - mainly due to gusts since
seas may only peak around 4-5 ft with the offshore winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures for Feb 1 - Feb 3
ILM: 14 in 1936; 17 in 1980; 13 in 1917
FLO: 20 in 2010; 18 in 1980; 19 in 1980
CRE: 20 in 1945; 20 in 1945; 19 in 1942
LBT:  4 in 1936; 11 in 1980; 13 in 1980

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for SCZ017-
     023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MAS/21
DISCUSSION...MAS/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21