060
FXUS62 KILM 201035
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
630 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated to reflect changing conditions.
Heat Advisory expanded to include areas along and west of I-95.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat to continue at least through today.

2) Isolated severe storms and flash flooding possible on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat to continue at least through
today.

Well-above normal temperatures will continue through today before
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms and associated cloud
cover bring slightly cooler high temperatures on Friday. As with the
last few days, the main concern for today is whether enough dry
air will mix down from aloft to prevent 105F heat indices from
occurring for 2+ hours. However, with only isolated showers and
perhaps a gusty thunderstorm expected, and this being the 9th
day in a row with a heat headline out, have opted to lean into
the accumulating effects of prolonged heat to justify expanding
the Heat Advisory into the rest of the area, regardless of
whether the heat indices just miss or nudge into the 105F
criteria. Outdoor workers and others performing activities
outside should take necessary precautions to prevent heat-
related illness today as rain and substantial cloud cover will
be lacking.

Heat indices reaching above 105F are possible again on Friday
for parts of the area before showers and thunderstorms develop.
While this may require another Heat Advisory, the anticipated
showers and thunderstorms should result in an earlier end to the
high heat indices due to rain and cloud cover.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated severe storms and flash flooding possible
on Friday.

A trough in the jet stream and attendant cold front progressing
eastward into the Carolinas on Friday should yield scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, with a low risk for strong to
severe wind gusts. Bulk shear across the 0-6 km layer is only
forecast to run 10-15 knots on Friday, with up to around 20 kts
possible across northern areas, leading to any severe weather risk
being sporadic and reserved to the strongest storms of the day.
Storm motions are expected to range in the 10-20 kt realm,
leading to some risk for flash flooding, especially if multiple
storms track or merge over the same areas. Plenty of moisture
in the atmosphere with precipitable water values around 2-2.2"
can easily yield heavy rain rates of 1-2" per hour or even
greater in the strongest storms. Inland areas should have the
highest coverage of storms, with sea breeze passage keeping
coastal areas mostly dry until Friday night. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms appears likely on Saturday as the
front slides farther southeast into the area, with a greater
emphasis along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Predawn fog to burn off quickly then VFR with light winds.
Convection too isolated if it even develops at all and continues to
be left out of TAFs. MVFR to IFR vsby and or cigs should re-form
tonight.

Extended Forecast... Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in areas
of ground fog or low stratus late tonight/Friday morning as well as
Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Chances for thunderstorms and related MVFR to LIFR vis restrictions
will become moderate to high Friday afternoon and again Saturday
afternoon as a cold front approaches the eastern Carolinas.
Scattered thunderstorms may continue through Sunday and Monday,
mainly in the afternoons near the coast affecting KILM, KCRE, and
KMYR as the stalled front decays.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Monday... Light south winds today will focus out of
the southwest tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Expect generally south to southwest winds to persist through the
period as the front stalls near the coast on Saturday. Wave heights
around 1-2 ft through Friday are expected to rise slightly in tandem
with stronger winds over Friday night to 2-3 ft in the 0-20nmi zones
and 3-4 ft in the 20-60nmi zones for Saturday through Sunday before
lowering slightly on Monday. Wind waves will be a primary
contributor the wave spectrum while a 1ft ESE swell with a period
around 8 sec is expected through the period as well.

The biggest marine impact will likely be from increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday evening and continuing
through the weekend as a front stalls near the coast. There will
likely be several rounds of storms, accompanied by reduced
visibility and possible gusty winds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...ABW