412
FXUS62 KILM 080632 CCA
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
232 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Collection of surf hazards have been issued to cover the rough
and dangerous surf expected on Tuesday. See the SRF, CFW, and Key
Message 2.

Minor coastal flooding is possible with this evening`s high
tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the lower
Cape Fear River, including Downtown Wilmington. Confidence is
lower that coastal flooding will occur at area beaches due to
weakening NE winds and associated wind wave energy. This will
be worth watching for another guidance cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier and cooler conditions over the next few days with heat
and higher rain chances returning late week.

2) Rough surf is expected across many area beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier and cooler conditions over the next few
days with heat and higher rain chances returning late week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Sfc high pressure ridging in from
the north through mid week will allow for continued cooler temps
than we`ve seen as of late, with PoPs no higher than around 20%
and confined to far SE areas/offshore. Temps warm a bit into
Thursday as the high pushes offshore with some guidance
supporting 20-30% PoPs inland, but the next good rain chances
(50-60% PoPs) don`t arrive until Friday into the weekend as
better shortwave energy aloft moves through the area. By Friday,
heat indices are likely to return to around 100 degrees once
again with upr-level ridging just off the SE coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rough surf is expected across many area
beaches today.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... ENE winds and elevated astronomical
tides will continue to produce rough surf at area beaches today.
A High Risk of rip currents is in effect for the east- facing
beaches of Pender, New Hanover, and Georgetown County. A
Moderate Risk of rip currents is in effect for Horry County
beaches. A strong longshore current was observed at all area
beaches yesterday and is expected to continue. This strong
longshore current kept rip currents closer to the shoreline.
However, strong longshore currents and strong nearshore rip
currents will produce rough and dangerous surf.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions overnight. VFR continues today
with gusty onshore winds by the afternoon.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR conditions continue with
dry high pressure in place, with restrictions possibly returning
in convection Friday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas are gradually improving early this morning, but will
continue to pose a threat to small craft through sunrise. As the
gradient weakens, sub-SCA conditions will return through the
remainder of the week. Southerly flow returns late this week as
surface high pressure drifts offshore.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ056.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MAS/21
DISCUSSION...MAS/21
AVIATION...MAS/21
MARINE...MAS/21