286
FXUS62 KILM 161333
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
933 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid summertime weather will continue with
temperatures reaching well above normal through Thursday. Daily
shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish as a high
pressure ridge builds over the Southeast. A cold front will move
through the region late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Area 12Z sounding data remains quite similar to last several
days, with the exception of PWAT trending down to around 1.8".
The moderately unstable airmass will support scattered non-
severe convection if a triggering mechanism can get things
going. Low-level moisture is more abundant just N and NW of the
area, which is where showers/tstms should be more numerous
today. The main question for the day is the coverage of
showers/tstms this afternoon. The current forecast ranges from
30% south to 50-60% north. Am concerned this may be a little
high, but confidence is too low to make significant changes at
this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Yesterday`s dichotomy in model solutions with regard to thunderstorm
coverage is being repeated again today. High res, convection-
allowing models like the HRRR and NAM show virtually no
thunderstorms across our area today. However synoptic-scale models
like the GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, and their associated blends and MOS
output suggest 50-70 percent coverage.

Just like yesterday our airmass will become uncapped and moderately
to strongly unstable with SBCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Unlike
yesterday curvature to the upper level flow becomes anticyclonic
this afternoon and tonight as a 500 mb ridge strengthens off the FL
East Coast. While we`ll still have the seabreeze as a trigger,
convective outflow boundaries from early morning storms across
northern NC may remain too far north to have an impact this far
south.

My plan, while blending with neighbors as much as possible, is to
reduce forecast PoPs to 30-40 percent across most of the area for
this afternoon into this evening. An exception is across parts of
southeastern NC where better seabreeze convergence and greater
distance from the building ridge to the south may allow storms to
more easily develop. Forecast PoPs here are locally 50-60 percent.

Any lingering evening convection should dry up overnight with a
light but humid southwest wind continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level ridging will be the main focus for the mid
week forecast period. High temperatures will grow into the lower to
middle 90s during this time. This when combined with dewpoints in
the lower to middle 70s will lead to heat indices nearing advisory
criteria. As usual the final call will be dependent on drier air off
the surface mixing down. Convection is expected to be scattered
Tuesday with less coverage Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Convection chances remain relatively low Thursday as
mid level ridging dominates the pattern. A heat advisory may be
needed in time mainly in the Pee Dee region during this time.
Heights slowly fall beginning Friday and along with the surface
front pushing slowly through the area pops see a notable increase
before falling off late in the period. Highs will generally be in
the lower to middle 90s dependent on convection with lows in the
lower to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There is high confidence for VFR conditions to continue at the
coastal airports KILM, KCRE, and KMYR through at least 16z
today. A narrow stripe of low stratus with ceilings near 700
feet AGL extends across the KFLO and KLBT airports this
morning. Like yesterday, this stratus should burn through around
13z with only a low to moderate potential for spotty MVFR
ceilings lasting through 14-15z.

The next item of concern is daytime thunderstorm development.
Much like yesterday there is a disconnect between very wet
synoptic models versus much drier high-res models. For KLBT
I`ll use a TEMPO group to indicate a moderate potential for
thunderstorm impacts between 22-02z. Elsewhere I`ll use PROB30
groups to indicate a somewhat lower potential for weather
impacts during the afternoon and evening hours. In general the
lowest potential for impacts today will be at KFLO and the
highest potential at KLBT.

Extended Outlook...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will bring brief MVFR/IFR visibility
each day through Thursday. There is also a low potential for
MVFR/IFR ceilings affecting inland airports early each morning,
mainly 08z-13z.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Yesterday`s weather pattern should largely continue today. Bermuda
High Pressure well offshore will maintain a moderate southwesterly
wind across the Carolinas. A stalled front near the NC/VA border
should remain nearly stationary today but will begin to push north
tonight as the Bermuda High spreads westward across Florida.

Aside from the persistent 15 knot southwest wind, mariners may have
to content with pop-up thunderstorms developing along the seabreeze
front this afternoon. Winds aloft will transport any storms eastward
and across the seabreeze front, placing the beaches and nearshore
waters potentially in their path. Additional clusters of
thunderstorms tonight may affect mainly the NC waters through early
Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday...
South to southwest winds of 10-15 knots will be in place
most of the forecast period as Bermuda HIgh Pressure is in place.
There could be an increase Thursday to 15-20 knots as the inland
trough gets better enhanced pinching the gradient. Significant seas
will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/SHK