170
FXUS62 KILM 011834
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
234 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will maintain control into the
middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could
lead to a few showers. Slightly better rain chances Sunday into
Monday as a somewhat stronger front moves into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather continues with similar conditions for Tuesday.
Offshore low pressure will be pulling away from us tonight and
moving off to the north through Tuesday. With ridging high pressure
to our west this will make for a lingering overnight breeze and then
breezy NE winds again Tuesday. Skies should be clear outside of
afternoon cu, and a stray light shower may be possible at the coast
later in the day. Highs in the lower 80s and lows near 60, cooler
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure to our north weakens early in the period while frontal
boundary remains stalled well to our north. After a slightly cool
Tuesday night temperatures will return to normal. Flow aloft
remains cyclonic but the column will be far too dry to support much
in the way of clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The large upper low in the Great Lakes will have another large low
dive in from the west keeping the trough in place after a slight
reconfiguration on Thursday, bringing the slightest chance of
showers. On Friday another piece enters the trough but this one acts
as a kicker. This allows a cold front to start approaching the area.
This will bring a late week warmup as the prefrontal flow turns
southerly. Dewpoints may rise enough to support isolated
thunderstorms on mesoscale boundaries. The front will decelerate and
could stall in the area over the weekend. With limited moisture flux
ahead of the boundary this doesn`t mean a washed out weekend but it
does represent the best rain chances of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with a NE breeze ~5 kts overnight increasing to ~10 kts
gusting ~20 kts after sunrise Tuesday. VFR afternoon cu will
pop up again with some spotty high clouds but otherwise quiet. A
stray, light shower could impact coastal terminals towards the
end of the period, but mainly KMYR/KCRE.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Rain chances could return Saturday with
intermittent restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Small Craft conditions should end from SW to NE
tonight as the low tracks further from the coast, the gradient
relaxing some. NE winds will still be ~20 kts overnight, starting to
come down to 15-20 through the day Tuesday. Seas 3-5 ft.

Tuesday Night through Friday... The high pressure that had been
located to our north for so long will finally weaken allowing
for winds and seas to abate. Flow will also start to veer away
from it`s unusual NE direction. SW flow then takes over late in
the period as a cold front approaches from the NW. This boundary
will be decelerating and so is not expected to push through the
waters during the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: High risk for strong rip currents for
Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. Breaking waves around 3
ft and the onshore swell direction today create conditions that
favor the development of strong rip currents. A strong north to
south longshore current will develop today along the beaches of
Pender and New Hanover counties in North Carolina and along the
beaches of Horry and Georgetown counties in South Carolina. The
strong long shore current may limit the number of rip currents,
however conditions will be conducive for the development of
strong rip currents.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MBB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...