975
FXUS62 KILM 031032
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
632 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 7am... Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

As of 210am... Forecast diurnal temperature ranges have been
widened by a couple of degrees today through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather and large day-to-night temperature ranges are
expected for the remainder of this week under high pressure.

2) Heat and humidity will return next week with summertime
showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and large day-to-night temperature
ranges are expected for the remainder of this week under high
pressure.

Unseasonably chilly air has been brought across the Carolinas in
the northerly flow between low pressure offshore and high
pressure across the Great Lakes. The coldest 850 mb temps,
around +8C, should occur this morning. Strong June sunshine
will mix up and well beyond the 850 mb layer yielding high
temperatures in the lower 80s for most areas today along with
wind gusts as high as 25 mph through early this afternoon.

The surface high will reach the central Appalachians tonight.
Lighter winds tonight mean despite the overall moderating
airmass there`s a better chance for a decoupled boundary layer
and temperatures should once again reach the 50s for most
locations.

The high will push offshore Friday with dry weather and
warming temperatures anticipated through Saturday. A mid and
upper level ridge over the Southeast should keep the atmosphere
capped to deep convection despite rising surface temperatures
and dewpoints.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Heat and humidity will return next week with
summertime showers and thunderstorms possible.

Mid and upper level ridging should push east and off the coast
by Sunday, coincident with an increasing flow of Gulf moisture
from the west and southwest. This could lead to isolated showers
or thunderstorms returning Sunday, with better chances expected
Monday into Tuesday as the next cold front approaches from the
north. High temperatures next week should reach 85-90 degrees
with dewpoints back in the 65-70 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions should continue for the next 24 hours. Expect
winds to increase this morning to 10-15 kt with gusts around
20-25 kts possible starting late this morning, mainly at
coastal terminals. A patch of scattered to broken altocumulus is
expected to slide southward this afternoon and may limit
gustiness at coastal terminals after about 20Z, depending on
how extensive it is. Winds should die down quickly at sunset,
but dry air aloft will preclude any fog formation despite clear
skies.

Extended Forecast...Aside from a low potential for ground fog
Saturday and Sunday mornings, VFR conditions should continue.

&&

.MARINE...
There`s a 15 mb pressure difference between low pressure
centered a few hundred miles east of Cape Fear and high pressure
moving southward from the Great Lakes. Northeast winds at 20 to
occasionally 25 kt will continue through this morning before a
diminishing this afternoon. Wind speeds should diminish further
tonight and Thursday as the high reaches the central
Appalachians, and then finally moves off the Carolina coastline
on Friday.

Strong NE winds over the past day have built an impressive
northeasterly swell with dominant wave periods lengthening to
around 10 seconds this afternoon into this evening. Wave heights
should remain large enough to keep the Small Craft Advisory in
effect for the SC coastal waters through this evening, and
into tonight for the NC waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254-
     256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/ABW
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...TRA