Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
015 FXUS62 KILM 061829 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 229 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking. && .KEY MESSAGES... -1)Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The slight risk has been expanded and now includes most of the area save for marginal for northernmost zones. Vorticity-laden NW flow continues with MLCAPE generally around 2000 J/Kg. Confidence is shaky regarding exact location based upon spread in CAMS, though the nearest term threat appears to be the cluster of storms diving SE out of RAH`s CWA, though they so far have been only SPS-worthy though a small uptick in shear could change that and a few SVR`s may be needed. Guidance is clinging to rain chances over southernmost zones, which are closer to yesterday`s frontal boundary but would not be surprised to see these lowered somewhat as instability wanes to zero. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR outside of thunderstorms today, which will shortly affect LBT. Confidence in later storms is a bit less certain, though CAMs slightly favoring the Cape Fear Region this evening. Dry air pushes into NC tonight while models continue to show showers and possible restrictions overnight but with the loss of instability confidence is low and so forecast will remain mostly dry. Wet weather returns over SC with heating tomorrow so PROB30`d the Myrtles, FLO may have to be re-evaluated. Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR conditions as drier high pressure builds in from the north. && .MARINE... Post-frontal NE flow in place across the area. Tomorrow into tomorrow night high pressure will start pushing the front farther to the south and winds and seas build. The surge that results was previously though to lead to SCA conditions but guidance has backed off slightly on what was marginal in the first place and so have held off for now. A few 25kt gusts still seem possible. The high will be slow to progress keeping onshore flow into Tuesday while speeds abate and some swell energy materializes. Southwesterly flo late in the period increases with the approach of another cold front but no headlines are anticipated. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB KEY MESSAGES...RJB/MBB DISCUSSION...MBB AVIATION...MBB MARINE...MBB