979
FXUS62 KILM 050545
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
145 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures above normal will continue through Saturday. A cold
front will bring increased rain chances and slightly cooler
temperatures Sunday. Cooler weather arrives next week with periods
of unsettled weather possible, especially along the coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Persistence forecast for the area again today and
tonight as there is little to no change in the synoptic pattern. The
airmass continues to modify slowly with more noticeable change in
surface dewpoints however. Highs today will approach 90 in most
areas with lows Saturday morning in the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Region is under the influence of weak surface ridge and shortwave
ridging aloft on Sat. These features shift east Sun with a cold
front being pushed into the area by mid-level troughing in the
morning. Sat will be warm and dry with the ridging keeping the air
mass dry and relatively stable. Deeper moisture lags the front a
bit, but precipitable water jumps from 1.3" midday Sat to almost 2"
midday Sun. Although the surface boundary slips offshore Sun
morning, diurnal heating, a weak sea breeze and increasing mid-level
lapse rates as temperatures aloft cool will all help generate
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Think the bulk of
the forecast area will have potential for measurable rain Sun
afternoon and evening, but best chances will be closer to the coast.

Surface high and drier air start to build in from the west Sun night
as low pressure develops along the stalled front. The increased
gradient will lead to an uptick in wind speeds, but the drier air
moving in coupled with loss of instability will bring an end to most
of the convection. Weak nocturnal showers may brush the coast from
time to time, but the majority of the forecast area will be dry Sun
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An atypical pattern for early Sep develops Mon and remains in place
for much of next week. In a scene more typical of winter or early
spring the front stalled off the coast in effect becomes a coastal
trough as high wedges down the coast. Occasional weak surface waves
develop along the front/trough then move northeast. This setup will
keep temperatures below normal especially during the day with highs
struggling to rise much above 80, depending on how thick and
expansive the cloud cover is. Rain chances will remain elevated
along the coast next week, but farther inland there remains
uncertainty. If the trough moves onshore cloud cover and rain would
push farther inland and temperatures would likely be a bit cooler
west of I-95, especially for the mid-week period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place through the period. There
remains the lower chance of BR in the usual places namely
Wilmington and North Myrtle beach but if this occurs it will
likely follow the pattern of appearing briefly then mixing out
as the dry air is deep and well established.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Rain chances return on Sunday ahead of a
cold front. A wedge of high pressure could bring periodic
restrictions early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Light winds and benign seas are still in place across the
coastal waters and will be through Saturday morning. Winds will
maintain a southerly component outside of a few hours of land breeze
early. Speeds will be ten knots or less. Significant seas will be
around two feet seemingly at best.

Saturday through Tuesday...
Southerly flow on Sat will become northeast Sun as cold front
moves off the coast. The southerly flow on Sat will be around 10
kt with some slight afternoon enhancement due to the sea
breeze. The east northeast flow post front on Sun is initially
weak, owing to the ill- defined gradient. This changes Sun night
as the surge arrives and northeast flow increases, peaking
20-25 kt around daybreak Mon and remaining 20-25 kt into Tue
night before gradually weakening. Seas around 2 ft through the
weekend start to build Sun night as the northeast surge arrives.
Seas 4-6 ft develop by midday Mon and stay in the 4-6 ft range
through Tue. An east to southeast swell will be present through
the weekend, but a northeast to east wind wave will dominate the
wave field Mon and Tue.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...III/SHK