516
FXUS62 KILM 120646
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
246 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous marine conditions, breezy winds, and rain will continue
today and tonight as strong low pressure remains near Cape Fear.
The low will move offshore Monday with drier weather expected. The
chilliest air since last April should arrive Thursday and Friday
as Canadian high pressure builds across the eastern United States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A deepening surface low continues to drift northward toward the
Carolina coast this morning. Water vapor satellite shows dry air
engulfing the southern flank of the storm aloft. This dry air is
eroding the depth of the cloud layer and resulting in decreasing
coverage of rain showers over NC and near the NC/SC state line.
Radar depicts light drizzle across southeastern NC as of 06Z.
However, near the coast of SC, satellite is hinting at some elevated
instability helping to sustain heavier bands of rain over the
nearshore waters. These bands are attempting to move onshore near
the Georgetown coast. Light to moderate rain should continue over SC
for a large portion of the day.

As the low settles near the SC coast today, the bulk of moisture and
rainfall will pool west of the center, impacting coastal northeast
SC as mentioned above. Concerns are growing that isolated flooding
near the Georgetown/Williamsburg could be a concern by this
afternoon.

HREF probs suggest that LPMM 24-hour QPF totals of up to 10 inches
are possible through 00Z Monday. There is also a wide swath through
much of Williamsburg, Georgetown, and Horry county that suggests up
to 5 inches of rain may be possible. This is especially true if
elevated instability enhances rain rates as HREF probs suggest.

While there is some evidence of elevated instability existing aloft,
model soundings suggest that instability will be limited. Given the
poor handling of this system thus far, its safe to say that
confidence remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will be centered off the NC coast Monday morning and
will move farther out to sea during the day. Residual low level
moisture circling the low may be deep enough for some coastal
showers lingering through Monday morning. Isentropic analysis on the
300K surface near the middle of the shallow moist layer shows
modest downglide so no additional significant rainfall amounts
are anticipated. I`ll hang onto 20-30 percent rain chances from
Myrtle Beach and Whiteville east to the Cape Fear coast Monday
morning.

Despite northerly winds Monday, drying will be slow to occur as low
level parcels still will originate from the ocean off the Mid
Atlantic coast in the cyclonic flow circling the offshore low. A
considerable stratocumulus cloud deck could remain in place
throughout the day, especially along the coast. Monday`s highs
should range from 71-75, warmest across the Pee Dee region. Skies
should clear Monday night with lows falling into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1034 mb Canadian high pressure will move across North Dakota on
Tuesday and into the western Great Lakes Wednesday. This should
maintain dry northerly winds across the Carolinas. Under mainly
clear skies highs should range from the mid to upper 70s with lows
in the 50s.

A strong shortwave will dive southeastward across New England on
Wednesday, zipping out into the Atlantic north of Bermuda Wednesday
night. This will push a dry cold front across the area Wednesday
night with the chillest airmass of the season building across the
Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Even with sunshine, highs both days
will range from the upper 60s (!) in the Cape Fear region to the
lower 70s across the Pee Dee region with dewpoints falling into the
upper 30s to 40s. The real magic happens Thursday night/Friday
morning as good radiational cooling will occur in the dry Canadian
airmass and lows should fall into the 40s all the way down to the
beaches! Our current forecast of 46 in Wilmington would be the
coldest since the morning of April 17. Here`s how other cities stack
up for the morning of Friday October 17:

Location       Forecast Low    Last Time This Chilly
Wilmington.........46..............April 17
Lumberton..........44..............April 18
N. Myrtle Beach....49..............April 28
Florence...........45..............April 17

The surface ridge axis should push offshore Friday with moderating
temperatures and dewpoints expected over the weekend as winds turn
southerly.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Predominantly MVFR with periodic IFR expected through sunrise. The
surface low is ingesting a large amount of dry air and northerly
winds have helped to decrease coverage of showers. North to
northwest winds will also help low level dry air maintain MVFR
rather than widespread IFR, despite the inversion. As the low
approaches the coast, winds should turn northeasterly and bring IFR
conditions to a larger portion of the forecast area during the day
on Sunday. Confidence is low and MVFR could prevail for a good
portion of the day.

Winds will continue to gust near 30 knots at the coast and 20 knots
inland this morning. With slightly deeper mixing during the day,
expect gusts up to 30 knots across the entire area (possibly a brief
gust to 35 knots at the coast).

Extended Outlook... Low clouds continue tonight as northeast winds
return and the surface low remains located near the coast.
Conditions should begin to improve on Monday, albeit a little
breezy. VFR expected on Tuesday and through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Strong gales continue as a surface low drifts
northward today. Models indicate that the gradient will begin to
weaken later this afternoon and the remnant gales should be replaced
by a Small Craft with winds 25-30 knots. This is likely to be an
extended periods of SCA conditions due primarily to seas.

Monday through Thursday...Low pressure should be located off
the NC coast Monday morning and will accelerate out to the
northeast during the day. Breezy northwest winds 20-25 knots
during the morning should diminish to 15- 20 knots during the
afternoon. Seas still running as high as 6-7 feet out beyond 10
miles from shore mean we`ll almost certainly need a Small Craft
Advisory Monday, perhaps even lingering into Monday evening for
the Cape Fear waters.

Our attention will then turn to Canadian high pressure moving from
North Dakota on Tuesday to the Great Lakes on Thursday. The slow
approach of this high should lead to an extended period of northerly
winds here in the Carolinas. Most models show a nighttime increase
in winds Wednesday night up to around 20 knots as cooler air surges
southward. Moderate north-northeasterly winds should continue on
Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: 10 second easterly swell will continue through
Monday, creating a high risk for rip currents at east facing
beaches. Strong northerly winds will also create a strong north to
south longshore current for Pender and New Hanover beaches on
Sunday. Winds will remain breezy on Monday, but winds will be more
offshore, weakening the longshore current. High surf advisory for
the New Hanover and Pender Coasts, has been extended through early
Sunday evening due to the much slower movement of the surface low,
keeping the surf elevated at 6 feet or higher.

Minor coastal flooding continues is expected to continue with the
higher high tide during the afternoon through Monday for the Lower
Cape Fear River and Wrightsville Beach. Springmaid Pier and SC
beaches are expected to receive minor flooding with the afternoon
high tide on Sunday with normal water levels returning on Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon
     for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ054-056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     this afternoon for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JLB