636
FXUS62 KILM 151937
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
337 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the Carolinas today with showers
and thunderstorms possible as it slides through. Behind the
front, high pressure will build in from the north and maintain
control through much of next week. Seasonably warm temperatures
are expected with rain chances returning late in the week as a
coastal trough develops.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front slowing down as
it nears the coast, while the seabreeze is starting to run into
it from the other direction. Ample instability and the lift
from these two boundaries is causing widely scattered showers
and storms within parts of the Cape Fear and Grand Strand
regions. Storms are finding the dry air aloft and capping above
700mb, so the activity is limited, and certainly not near severe
limits. Capping may try to erode away late this afternoon,
tapping into more of the instability. This would create more of
a lightning threat, but the dry air aloft doesn`t necessarily
help this matter, particularly since the helicity is weak as
well. DCAPE is also quite elevated, which could bring some
decent gusty winds in some of these storms.

Regardless, this convection should settle down after sunset
late this evening. Ridging starts to build in, and with no real
upper level support going on, the surface front may stall
somewhere in southern Williamsburg and Georgetown Counties. Lows
mostly in the lower 70s. Some of the cooler spots in parts of
Bladen and Pender Counties may dip into the low-to-mid 60s.

Ridging over the Georgia-Alabama border shifts eastward into
the Carolinas Sunday. This should keep most everyone dry. The
stalled front to the south does keep around some cloud cover,
allowing for highs to reach a few degrees cooler than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure off of the New England coast and ridging aloft
will maintain dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures
through much of next week. Persistent onshore flow will bring
humid conditions Sunday night and Monday night. Highs on Monday
will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid to
upper 60s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ongoing high pressure and ridging continues through Thursday.
Latest global models develop a trough of low pressure offshore.
Steering flow will keep this low south of the area, but SE winds
will increase. Persistent SE winds will lead to the development
of swell creating the potential for elevated rip currents late
this week. A weak coastal trough could bring a few showers or
thunderstorms to the coastal counties late in the week. Highs
each day will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions open the 18Z TAF period, which is expected to
continue. Relatively low confidence on isolated storms this
afternoon, with KCRE/KMYR having the best chance (not that the
chances are that good). Threw in a TEMPO group from 19-22Z this
afternoon and evening. Storms would bring brief MVFR to IFR
conditions. Winds become a bit more variable tonight, with an
easterly wind picking up by early Sunday afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday... Southerly winds at 5-10kts back to the ENE
late tonight, with the pressure gradient increasing the
sustained speeds up to 10-15kts by Sunday afternoon. Seas remain
at 2-3ft.

Sunday Night through Thursday... Persistent SE flow will be in
place throughout the forecast period. SE swell will generally
stay 2-3 feet through Tuesday. A gradual increase in swell
energy is expected on Wednesday and especially Thursday as SE
winds increase and a weak trough of low pressure develops over
the western Atlantic. Seas increase to 3-5 feet on Wednesday and
near SCA conditions (6+ feet) by Thursday. Given that the
development of this low has been inconsistent in consecutive
model runs, confidence is low in the potential for SCA
conditions by Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is
expected for east-facing beaches tomorrow due to a E/SE swell
around 2 feet. Lingering swells and onshore winds should keep a
moderate risk of rip currents into early next week. Rip current
chances are likely to increase late next week in persistent SE
flow and increasing swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM