027
FXUS62 KILM 011817
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
217 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal temperatures and dry weather should continue
through tomorrow morning as high pressure builds across the
Carolinas. Low pressure developing off the coast Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night could bring our next chance of rain.
Dry weather will return by Tuesday and should continue through
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very quiet weather early in the period as high pressure remains
centered to our north. Clouds increase gradually on Sunday as
the approach of a healthy mid level low approaches from the west
and pressures fall offshore. The increase in cloud cover will
be followed by an increase in rain chances from the coast to
inland. The low dewpoints in place will need to be overcome for
rain to start reaching the ground. POPs will max at 30-40 and
QPF should be negligible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper low moving out of the Tennessee River Valley is likely
to assist the development of a surface low along a coastal
trough late Sunday. The weak surface low will move northward
along this coastal trough through Monday while strengthening
within the baroclinic zone just off of the NC/SC coast.

As expected, model guidance is starting to come into better
agreement in regards to the development of the upper low for
late Sunday and Monday. Models have trended toward a stronger
upper low crossing Alabama into southern Georgia by Monday
morning. Ensembles also share some consensus with a neutral to
slightly positive tilt which should keep some of the heaviest
rain to our east. Uncertainties still exist with regards to the
timing with a bulk of GFS ensembles favoring a slower upper
disturbance.

Southerly moisture advection will be maximized on Sunday
evening with the approach of the upper low. Onshore flow earlier
in the day could support some isolated showers on Sunday
afternoon, but any rain showers that exist across the area
should become more widespread and heavier in intensity through
the evening. Upper level divergence ahead of the upper low
should provide some additional lift to our north and east
resulting in heavier rain. It is possible that some of this
heavier rain could stretch as far south as southeastern NC if
elevated convective precip is able to materialize.

Precip will mostly be stratiform due to isentropic lift with
the best mechanical lift isolated to our inland counties at
onset. Near the coast, better moisture advection should also
support showers. Confidence is lower for areas between I-95 and
the US-17. As the upper low approaches, and mid to upper level
southerly flow gains some residence, warm and moist air
advection could bring some instability onshore. This would
provide a brief increase in rain rates, especially near the
coast. Flooding is not expected to be a concern. The best timing
for heavier rain rates would be Sunday night into early Monday
morning.

Moisture advection moves east during the day on Monday with
showers decreasing from west to east through the late morning
and afternoon. Dry air following the upper low should bring most
of our precip chances to an end by Monday evening. Cool air in
addition to clouds and rain should keep temperatures quite cool
across the area. Low to mid 60s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Drier air filters into the region on Tuesday with quiet weather
and below normal temperatures continuing through Thursday.
Ensembles signal a weak cold front will move through the region
on Thursday. The moisture starved front is unlikely to bring
precip chances. Temperatures gradually increase closer to normal
early next weekend ahead of the next upper trough or shortwave.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence VFR for most if not the entire period. Possible
exception is that cloud cover is progged to be on the rise
Sunday but it appears that they will be high enough to maintain
VFR.

Extended Outlook... Generally VFR. Low pressure developing
offshore Sunday night into Monday is likely to produce
restrictions in low clouds and light rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday... High pressure remains north of the area early
in the period. Changes slated for Sunday as a moderate upper
low approaches from the west and pressures start falling
offshore as a coastal trough develops. This starts to pinch the
gradient between the over land high and the developing trough
ramping up the NE winds. Waves generally as SE swell with a NE
wind chop but the main building of waves will be after the near
term period.

Sunday Night through Wednesday... Low pressure developing off
of the NC/SC coast will lead to increasing winds through Monday.
As the upper low moves offshore, high pressure will build
behind the exiting low late Monday into Tuesday. This gradient
will produce the strongest winds over the next few days with
marginal SCA conditions possible in gusts to 25 knots. High
pressure continues to settle across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday with lighter winds expected.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/21