018
FXUS62 KILM 151423
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1023 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the Carolinas today with showers
and thunderstorms possible as it slides through. Behind the
front, high pressure will build in from the north and maintain
control through much of next week. Seasonably warm temperatures
are expected with rain chances returning late in the week as a
coastal trough develops.

&&

.UPDATE...
Not really any major changes coming down the track at the 10 AM
EDT forecast update. Latest observations indicate that the front
is draped over the northern half of the local forecast area,
spanning roughly from just north of Florence and Marion through
just south of Elizabethtown and Wallace.

Front will continue to drop southward towards the coast by this
afternoon, where it will slow down. Despite lift from this front
and the seabreeze expected to develop in a couple hours, storms
this afternoon should be pretty isolated. Precipitable water
does increase later today, but the moisture profiles in RAP13
soundings don`t look very convincing. Best forcing is far aloft
above 300mb. Storms today will likely be outflow driven, with
the seabreeze pinned closer to the coast. Northeast SC in
particular may deal with more storms today than southeast NC.

Best setups here include the CAPE and DCAPE. Storms today may
produce some decent gusty winds. Not much helicity to work with,
but considering the very potent CAPE in place, we may have quite
the lightning show in some spots today. Alas, there`s a
considerable cap above 700mb, and I`m skeptical of how the
isolated activity is going to shape up today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Overall high resolution guidance has come into better
agreement with convection associated with a back door front this
afternoon. It appears there will decent coverage late afternoon into
early evening west to east from the Pee Dee region east to the
coast. While it appears there will be a significant sea breeze...the
extra convergence/lift provided by the front will be needed hence
the orientation. Very warm highs expected today with good coverage
of middle 90s...a little cooler along the beaches and just inland.
Finally the severe threat looks limited if for nothing else coverage
but downdraft cape values could get interesting noting the
antecedent conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will extend into the area from the north through
the period while a cold front stalls south and east of the area.
Dry weather is expected.  Highs each day will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will extend into the area from the north through
the period though there are indications a coastal trough could
develop late in the week. Overall, little rainfall is expected
though the coastal trough could bring a few showers or
thunderstorms to the coastal counties late in the week. Highs each
day will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions currently in place. Some convection still
expected this afternoon into early evening seemingly from Flo to
the coastal sites. Although guidance isn`t necessarily more
bullish with some 06 UTC guidance went ahead and added vcts to
these sites.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Essentially light and variable winds most of the
day will transition to a better defined east to northeasterly flow
in the wake of a back door front later tonight. Significant seas
will be 2-3 feet.

Sunday through Wednesday...A generally easterly flow will
remain in place through the period with high pressure to our
north. Seas will run 2 to 3 feet with 4 ft seas possible at
times hearer 20 miles out.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is
expected for east- and southeast-facing beaches tomorrow due to
a southeasterly 2-3 ft swell and mainly for east-facing beaches
on Sunday as an easterly swell takes over. Lingering swells and
onshore winds should keep a moderate risk of rip currents going
for mainly the east-facing beaches into early next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...IGB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...ILM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM