180
FXUS62 KILM 270634
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
234 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion has been issued for the 06Z TAF package.

Marine discussion updated for potential short term NC Waters
SCA late Tue or Tue night.

Coastal Flood Advisory issued for the Lower Cape Fear River
from 700pm edt to Midnight tonight.

Heat Indices to reach 105+ Tue afternoon which will likely
require Heat Advisories for portions of the ILM CWA.

Threat of severe thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and
night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming trend kicks in today, peaking during Tuesday.

2) The next cold front pushes across late Tuesday night,
bringing better organized convection. Some storms could be
strong to severe from late Tuesday afternoon into the pre-dawn
Wednesday hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming trend kicks in today, peaking during
Tuesday.

Guidance is pointing towards a decent warmup today thru Tue,
ahead of an approaching cold front. Most locations will reach
the lower 90s for todays highs except the immediate coast
holding in the upper 80s. Forcing from the sea breeze or an
embedded mid-level s/w trof could produce isolated to widely
scattered aftn/evening convection which may temporarily
alleviate the heat. Enough dry air aloft will help limit the
convection today which should partially mix down as lower
dewpoints. For Tuesday guidance pushes max temps to the mid to
possibly upper 90s across the FA. Lower dewpoints from mixing
aloft will not be as prevalent like Mon and as a result, look
for Heat Indices to likely breach 105+ across portions of the
FA, especially at the coast. Would expect Heat Advisories will
likely be advertised as we move closer to Tue. The sfc pg
tightens Tue and produces breezy SW-W winds across the FA
by afternoon thru Tue night, which is much better than having
a stagnant air mass when heat is involved.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next cold front pushes across late Tuesday
night, bringing better organized convection. Some storms could
be strong to severe from late Tuesday afternoon into the pre-
dawn Wednesday hours.

Next organized rain and storm chances come in late Tuesday into
early Wednesday morning with the next cold frontal passage.
This front misses out on the majority of the diurnal heating,
but it appears the extra moisture and buoyancy that gets
injected in the atmosphere will provide energy for potentially
strong to severe tstorms. Veering low level winds combined with
an embedded mid to upper level disturbance will also aid in a
better organized structure to the thunderstorm activity. These
potentials point toward strong and damaging wind gusts as the
biggest concern here. In addition, cloud to ground lightning
will definitely be an additional concern. Specifics on the
timing and intensity will become more apparent as near/short
term high resolution models become more engaged with it.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions to start across all terminals. Stratocu and
altocu clouds will curtail fog/low stratus initially. However,
models clear them out leaving somewhat prime conditions for
fog/low stratus to affect the area terminals, mainly across the
inland terminals where MVFR/IFR will occur generally in the
08Z-12Z time-line. For now the coastal terminals may escape any
restrictions but confidence remains low as there is plenty of
lingering low level moisture and at or nearly calm winds.
Diurnal Cu to spring up by late morning. And with an embedded
mid-level s/w trof poised to push thru in the aftn/evening,
convective parameters remain conducive to enabling Prob30
groups 18z-24z to indicate potential -TSRA across all
terminals. Of the 5 terminals, the best threat will reside
across LBT and ILM.

Extended Forecast...Chance of fog/stratus inland Tue morning.
VFR conditions to dominate majority of daylight Tue. Except,
ahead of a CFP late Tue night, look for periodic MVFR/IFR from
scattered to numerous tstorms late Tue aftn into the pre-dawn
Wed hrs. Daytime Wed thru Fri, VFR will dominate.

&&

.MARINE...
Synoptically relaxed sfc pg thru tonight will yield SE-S winds
generally around 5 kt. Exception will be near shore where the
mesoscale sea breeze circulation will increase windspeeds to 10
to possibly 15 kt this aftn into this evening. Few storms may
affect the waters this aftn/evening as they move off the
mainland associated with an embedded 5H s/w trof. For Tue, the
sfc pg will tighten by midday and persist into early Wed as a
decent cold front, for this time of year, drops to the area
waters Tue night and south of the waters Wed thru Fri b4 slowly
snaking back northward to the waters by the weekend.
Nevertheless, the ILM NC Waters will have the potential for SCA
conditions late Tue aftn thru early Wed from mainly gusty SW-W
winds with a few 6 foot seas across the outer waters. The
adjacent offshore waters may occasionally see 30-35 kt gusts
with 6 to possibly few 7 footers possible. The other concern for
all waters will be the strong to possibly severe thunderstorms
ahead of the cold front late Tue aftn and thru the night. By
Wed aftn thru Fri, the sfc pg will relax forcing winds to
diminish to 10 kt or less. Sfc pressure pattern becomes diffuse
toward the end of the week resulting in winds variable in
direction. However, will identify a predominate direction in
lieu of going VRBL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/RALF
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/RALF
DISCUSSION...DCH/RALF
AVIATION...DCH/RALF
MARINE...DCH/RALF