Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
687 FXUS62 KILM 200556 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1256 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler temperatures are expected today as a cold front moves through the forecast area. A warm up will follow for Friday and Saturday with a slight chance of showers. Another cold front will move through Saturday night with drier high pressure and cooler, more seasonable weather for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Yesterday`s cold front brings a reality check after our run at 80 degrees though the afternoon will still wind up a tad above climatology especially inland. Coastal locales closer to normal as onshore flow advects across the SST`s that are now barely above 60 degrees. The extreme SE tip of Brunswick County including Southport may even struggle to achieve the advertised highs in the mid 60s. Cloud cover today will have variability in temporal, spatial, and vertical extent. Forecast soundings show moist layers at 4-5kft under the frontal inversion as well as in a deep layer above about 500mb, the latter`s opacity making it tricky to put a percentage to cloud cover. The higher layer will also come to dominate tonight as cirrus level moisture increases from west to east. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A stalled frontal boundary will lift northward on Friday as southerly flow becomes reestablished. Areas south of the front may see some patchy fog on Friday morning. Warmer on Friday with highs in the mid and upper 70s. A few areas could hit the 80 degree mark in northeastern SC. Mild overnight with southerly advection continuing; around 60 or lower 60s. A shortwave moving eastward out of the Ohio Valley on Saturday will strengthen southerly flow across the Carolinas. The energy aloft could produce a few isolated showers on Saturday. Coverage is unlikely to be widespread due to the best energy remaining north of our area. While some isolated showers are possible earlier in the day, showers will be more likely during the afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. Warm advection will also produce instability later in the day, so it is possible that a few thunderstorms will be embedded in any showers that develop. Enhanced southwest flow ahead of the shortwave will produce another warm day widespread 80s likely. A cold front will move through during the late afternoon and evening, bringing the best chance of showers and a cooler and drier air mass behind it. Lows in the upper 40s to the north and lower 50s to the south, dependent on the timing of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will build southward behind a cold front on Sunday. A little cooler than previous days, but still around or just above normal for most of the area. Not much movement of the high pressure overnight and into Monday. Dry weather will allow lows to cool nicely; lower 40s expected with a few inland areas in the upper 30s. Zonal flow aloft on Monday and full sunshine will help temperatures rebound by Monday afternoon to around 70, lower 70s for portions of northeastern SC. A shortwave lifting northward through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday will intensify southerly moisture advection across the Carolinas. A trailing cold front will approach the southern Appalachians on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The cold front will slow its progression as it moves eastward, but it may produce surface lift for some scattered showers overnight. Southerly winds will keep temperatures in the mid and upper 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. A cold front has pushed south of the region. NE post- frontal winds occasionally more easterly at times along the coast. The prevalent moisture layer will be at the cirrus level, perhaps moreso tonight. There is less certainty as to the extent of a moist layer in the 4-5 kft range, perhaps SCT at most but have left out at time. Very light if not variable wind tonight as a surface-based inversion develops. Extended Outlook... Predominately VFR. There is a low chance of MVFR to IFR fog on Friday morning. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... A frontal boundary will be stalled along the SC/GA border for most of the near term. Locally this will bring NE winds today that will abate as the front weakens. The 2-3 ft wind wave will be the main, if not only wave in the spectrum. Friday through Monday... Return flow on Friday brings warm weather and increasing southerly winds through Saturday. Warm advection peaks on Saturday with gusts to 20 knots during the afternoon. Some patchy sea fog may exist both days. A cold front moves offshore Saturday night. Northerly winds develop on Sunday, but poor cold air advection will keep winds around 15 knots and gusts around 20 knots. Seas around 2-3 feet for most of the weekend; slightly higher with increased wind speeds ahead of the front on Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...MBB MARINE...MBB/21