160
FXUS62 KILM 311848
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
248 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Coastal Flood Advisory for this afternoon`s high tide cycle
has been cancelled, as levels are expected to stay below minor
flood thresholds.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will bring near normal temperatures and
dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week.

2) Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast
confidence remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will bring near normal
temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through
early next week.

The local area will remain under the influence of sfc high
pressure centered off to the NE through at least early next week
leading to several days of quiet, dry weather with temps near
normal. Northeast winds will be breezy at times, especially
near the coast during the daytime periods.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances should increase later next week,
but forecast confidence remains low.

As sfc high pressure pushes farther offshore during the middle
of next week, the upr-level pattern will start to transition as
a deeper trough approaches from the west. Although forecast
spread in regards to both upr-level heights and precipitable
water remains high in this more amplifying pattern, southerly
return flow would support an increase in rain chances later in
the week. Latest forecast calls for a 30-40% of rain Thursday
and Friday, with a dry forecast before then, aside from
offshore where chances for showers are higher.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the 18Z TAF period with no chance of rain and just
some scattered to broken high clouds. NE winds averaging around
10 kt persist, gusting higher at times.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, although a bit better
risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
With sfc high pressure locked in place to the N/NE, moderate NE
flow will continue over the waters. A SCA remains in effect for
all coastal waters outside of the northern SC waters where
conditions are more marginal. The headline now ends late Sunday
night, when seas should dip below 6 ft with gusts decreasing to
below 25 kt. Not much change into the first half of next week,
with ~20 kt winds and 4-5 ft seas continuing through at least
Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...MAS/VAO
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS