200
FXUS62 KILM 222347
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
747 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will develop along stalled front to
the south, lifting north over the weekend and leading to
increased shower chances. Drier and cooler weather arrives
behind a cold front late Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes to the public/marine forecasts. New aviation
forecast discussion for 00Z TAFs follows below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front is well established to the south and as expected
the catalyst for widespread convection and heavy rain. While
most of the heavy activity has remained to the south of our CWA
some of the stronger/heavier stuff could drift north from time
to time. Overall pops remain seemingly confined to these areas
through the near term Saturday as drier air wants to push in
from the north. Moisture in the form of cloud cover for the most
part continues to complicate temperatures and the forecast
thereof. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s to maybe an upper
sixty or two northern areas. Highs Saturday will be in the
lower confidence realm of lower to middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure along stalled front to the south will lift
north along the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Scattered
showers will develop across the area Saturday night and during
the day Sunday, mostly concentrated close to the coast. While
showers will overall be rather light, with forecasted PWATs
~2.3" near the coast and light 0-6km mean wind (less than 5
kts), any heavy showers that do develop could lead to isolated
areas of higher rainfall totals. Forecast has isolated
thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon, but this will depend on
when/if the clouds break up during the day to get us that
instability. The low pressure just off the coast rapidly exists
to the northeast late Sunday, bringing an end to pops and
clearing out the skies. Low temps both Saturday and Sunday
nights will be around 70F, with highs Sunday in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday is expected to be a near-normal warm summer day, with
highs in the upper 80s and plenty of sunshine around diurnal
cumulus. Atmosphere will be drier behind the weekend`s system,
but there might be just enough instability and moisture to
support a few storms along the sea breeze. Moisture-limited cold
front is progged to move across the area late Monday/Monday
night. Cool high pressure will then follow for most of next
week, leading to below-normal temps and drier weather. Current
forecast has highs around 80F for most of the area mid to late
next week, dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s, and low temps in
the low 60s (near 60F Thursday morning).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence in mostly VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC
through the 00Z TAF period. Main concerns for any restrictions
are at KMYR/KCRE, and to a lesser extend KFLO, where there is
mainly a low risk for MVFR cigs and showers, possibly even a
tstm, as weak coastal troughing develops.

Extended Outlook...Unsettled conditions due to a weak low
pressure system offshore passing nearby may lead to flight
restrictions this weekend with improvement expected early next
week as drier high pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...NE winds for the most part this afternoon
will shift more easterly in time through Saturday with speeds
maintaining a range of 10-15 knots. Significant seas will see a
range of 3-5 feet this afternoon which will slowly drift
downward in time to 2-4 feet by Saturday PM.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Weak low pressure along
stalled front to the south will lift north along the coast
Saturday night into Sunday, leading to scattered showers and
storms over the waters. Easterly winds Saturday night will back
during the day Sunday and Sunday night, eventually becoming
southwesterly Monday. SW winds will be brief Monday as a cold
front is forecasted to move across the waters late Monday,
kicking off a period of northeast winds Tuesday that persists
through late week as high pressure builds inland. Seas remain in
the 2-3 ft range Saturday night through middle of next week, as
diminishing E swells from Hurricane Erin is replaced by a SE
swell.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected along the Lower Cape Fear River
during each high tide cycle through the weekend with the evening
high tide cycles being the higher high tide. Minor coastal flooding
is also expected along the SE NC and NE SC coasts during the higher
evening high tides through at least Saturday, although could
also occur during the Saturday morning high tide.

RIP CURRENTS: An elevated risk of rip currents is expected to
continue through the weekend north of Cape Fear due to lingering
swells from Hurricane Erin. Rip currents may continue into
early next week as swells from another distant system approach
the US east coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ107.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for NCZ108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ109.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SHK/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...