Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
102 FXUS62 KILM 011029 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 629 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Patchy dense fog is possible across areas east of I-95. Otherwise, 12Z TAF discussion updated below. Overnight update: High temperature forecasts for Friday and Saturday have been increased by 1-2 degrees, increasing the potential we`ll reach Heat Advisory criteria one or both of those days. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures and humidity will bring heat indices over 100 degrees through Saturday. 2) A cold front will result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday, followed by cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures and humidity will bring heat indices over 100 degrees through Saturday. A strong mid and upper level ridge centered across Tennessee and Kentucky will slowly move southeastward to a position almost directly over North Carolina Thursday and Friday. Despite sticky midsummer dewpoints in the 70s, sinking air within the ridge should cap the atmosphere to deep convection and allow heat to build each day. 850 mb temps in the +20 to +21C range today and Wednesday should support highs in the lower to middle 90s. Combined with high dewpoints, heat indices should exceed 100 degrees. By Friday, models show 850 mb temps rising to near +22C which could support highs in the upper 90s inland from the beaches. Heat Advisory criteria (105F+ heat index) could be achieved. The upper ridge should begin to break down on Saturday as an upper trough diving SE across New England erodes heights along the East Coast. Developing NW flow aloft appears it may sustain the heat wave one additional day as a reservoir of hot air across Virginia and western NC drains southeastward across the eastern Carolinas. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday, followed by cooler temperatures early next week. The upper trough diving across New England on Saturday should support surface low pressure south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. A cold front extending well south and west of this low should move into the Carolinas Saturday, possibly arriving across the coastal plain during the afternoon or early evening hours. While specifics are obviously hard to pin down this many days out, it appears a belt of stronger NW winds in the mid levels could increase bulk shear values sufficiently for storm cell organization to occur Saturday. NW flow aloft is often associated with fast-moving lines of storm with damaging wind potential across the Carolinas, so we`ll need to monitor for this as Saturday draws closer. Forecast PoPs peak Saturday evening at 40-50 percent. For Sunday, the latest GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF all show the front through our portion of the Carolinas, but still close enough that frontal convection cannot be ruled out. NE to E winds behind the front should bring high temps down into the 80s and closer to normals for early September. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Have TEMPOs for morning restrictions through 13Z, IFR/LIFR fog and stratus. Then we`ll have light winds to start out the day transitioning to a south wind 5-10 kts. There`s the chance of fog at all terminals again Tuesday night. Extended Forecast...There is low to moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog Wednesday morning. As drier air moves in aloft, the coverage of showers and storms is expected to be isolated, if any, Tuesday through Thursday. Some restrictions are possible by Saturday given increased chances for SHRA/TSRA with an approaching cold front. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...The Bermuda ridge should hold firm over the next several days maintaining a light southeasterly wind and benign weather across the Carolina coastal waters. With light winds there should be minimal wind chop leaving and 8-10 second southeast swell at 1-2 foot height as the only wave group of note. The Bermuda High should begin to drop south late in the week as a cold front moves southward along the East Coast. Somewhat stronger south to southwest winds developing Friday should add a short period wind chop on top of the swell with combined seas building to around 3 feet. The cold front itself should arrive Saturday accompanied by an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... Preliminarily, climatological summer of 2026 will go down as the THIRD HOTTEST summer in Wilmington`s climate record that stretches back to 1874. The six warmest summers have all occurred this century. #1 2011 81.8 deg F #2 2010 81.8 deg F #3 2026 81.7 deg F #4 2016 81.4 deg F #5 2022 81.1 deg F Additionally, August 2026 is also the second wettest August on record for Wilmington. There has been 15.01 inches recorded at ILM. This was done without the benefit of a tropical cyclone. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...TRA DISCUSSION...TRA AVIATION...LEW MARINE...TRA