944
FXUS62 KILM 221900
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
300 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated with no real change to forecast thinking.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1)Slow-moving cold front will bring periods of heavy showers
and thunderstorms mainly between Thursday and Saturday night,
with an attendant risk for localized flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Slow-moving cold front will bring periods of
heavy showers and thunderstorms mainly between Thursday and
Saturday night, with an attendant risk for localized flash
flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Rain will gradually overspread the area
late tonight from the NW as the front arrives. The boundary is
progged to stall along the coast through both Friday and Saturday.
And while this will bring some no doubt welcome drought releif it
also sets the stage for training thunderstorms and flash flooding.
WPC is depicting a 3 day QPF of 1-2" across most of the area with a
localized max of 3" in the Cape Fear region due to it being closest
to the boundary. The showers and additional cloud cover will cap the
heat below advisory thresholds across most of the area though a
marginal advisory still looks possible ahead of the boundary along
sections near the immediate coast. After the front washes out over
the weekend next week will start to warm gradually, eventually
possibly needing advisories towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A relatively rare convection-less July day will mean VFR for most of
the TAF cycle. SW winds will continue to be gusty as a front
approaches. The approach of the front will call for PROB30s for
FLO/LBT late tonight into early tomorrow as showers and storms
approach from the northwest, though the exact timing is uncertain.


Extended Forecast...Potential for periodic MVFR/IFR due to storms
remains possible through late Sat, most numerous in the afternoon
and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA still in effect but winds and seas forecast to abate
tonight as the approach of a cold front pushes the tighter
gradient out to sea. This will become more pronounced heading
into Friday as the front stalls along the coast. Right now it
looks like winds only veer as far as westerly and no northerly
component becomes established, though should this occur it would
only be over northernmost 0-20nm zone. Seas comprised mostly of
shorter period wind chop, not forecast to change appreciably
through the period as even late in the forecast any swell energy
that develops will remain well offshore in S to SW flow.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-
     105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB