310
FXUS62 KILM 262332
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
732 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. Two
cold fronts will move into the region on Thursday and late
Sunday bringing increased chances of thunderstorms. Hot
temperatures will cool back to normal early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Inland thunderstorms earlier produced 40 mph wind gusts and
2.29 inches of rain near Scranton in southern Florence County,
SC. These storms have dissipated, but mid and high level
convective debris cloudiness will take another couple of hours
to dissipate. Compared to last night, boundary layer south-
southwesterly winds will be much stronger which should keep fog
potential low. Humid onshore winds along the coast will bring
stratocumulus clouds onshore at times, but dry weather is
expected to continue.

The heat advisory was allowed to expire at 7 PM. Just looking at
the hourly airport observations here`s the highest heat indices
observed today:

Myrtle Beach 106
Florence 107
Darlington 106
Bennettsville 108
Lumberton 107
Wilmington 102
Elizabethtown 106

An interesting climate note: I`ve bumped the forecast low at
North Myrtle Beach up to 80 degrees tonight. If this verifies
AND if North Myrtle Beach remains 80+ degrees through midnight
Thursday night, we will tie the largest number of June 80 degree
daily lows in North Myrtle Beach`s history with three, last
observed back in 2010. We`ve observed two such hot nights so far
this month: June 22 and June 23.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heat and humidity are driving heat index values in the interior
sections of the forecast area and the Grand Strand to over 105
this afternoon. This heat is expected to abate after 6 PM.
Afternoon convection is starting and is expected to be isolated
in coverage. CAM models are showing the coverage to remain
scattered into the early evening.

It will be a warm and humid night with a southerly wind blowing
overnight ahead of a cold front over the Ohio River Valley,
which is expected to drop slowly into our area on Thursday. As
the upper- level trough associated with the front moves over the
area, a ribbon of 2" precipitable water values will be over our
area during Thursday afternoon. Strong instability will provide
an environment where there will be a marginal risk for isolated
severe thunderstorms.

Tomorrow`s combination of heat and high dew points will most
likely necessitate a heat advisory. However, if convection
begins earlier, this may prevent the heat indices from reaching
the 105 to 109 range, potentially averting the need for an
advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Front moves into the area Thursday night, with not much more
than a brief wind shift. Storms will be dissipating quickly
early Thursday night as NVA dominates with exiting upper
shortwave, with low temps in the low 70s. Front looks to wash
out on Friday, with a more onshore flow Friday afternoon keeping
temps a few degrees lower than Thursday though still slightly
above normal in the low 90s. Dewpoints remain well in the 70s on
Friday, and heat indices in the triple digits is forecasted yet
again area wide. PWATS remain elevated, despite some dry air
aloft, and plenty of instability will kick off scattered
afternoon convection. Another night in the low to mid 70s Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend, with
highs in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the 70s.
Additional heat advisories appear likely this weekend, with
forecast approaching heat warning criteria (heat index >= 110F)
on Sunday. Afternoon convection expected each day, with PWATs
remaining at or above 2" through the weekend (and into early
next week). Rain/thunderstorm chances increase a bit late Sunday
into Sunday night as an upper shortwave moves through and a
surface low moves across the Northeast with attending front
approaching Sunday night. Temperatures "cool" a little for the
start of next week to near normal as flow becomes more easterly
(versus south-southwesterly). Airmass remains warm and moist and
have maintained diurnal convection in the forecast for Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Inland thunderstorms between KFLO and KLBT have dissipated, but
it will take another few hours for the convective debris mid and
high clouds to dissipate. Along the coast, humid onshore wind
is producing low stratocumulus clouds with bases 1500-2500 feet
AGL. These could form broken ceilings at KMYR, KCRE, and KILM
overnight with the most substantial impacts expected prior to
04z at the Myrtle Beach airports, then after 04z at KILM.

Breezes should keep fog potential very low tonight and aside
from coastal low clouds, VFR conditions are expected to continue
into early Thursday afternoon. A developing area of thunderstorms
should affect the inland airports KFLO and KLBT after 19z, and
may approach the coast during the late afternoon hours.

Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty
morning low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...As a cold front slowly approaches the
central Carolinas on Thursday, the southerly winds over the
waters will veer to the southwest. Wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots
are expected. Seas will run around 3 feet with a few 4 feet at
15 to 20 miles off the coast, mainly north of Little River.

Thursday Night through Sunday...South-southwest winds Thursday
night turn southeasterly briefly on Friday as a front drops into
the area before washing out. South-southwest winds return for
the weekend around ever present Bermuda high pressure. Wind
speeds increase slightly heading into Sunday evening as another
front approaches. Seas generally 2-3 ft Thursday night through
Sunday, mix of SE swell and SSW wind wave. Best chance for
thunderstorms over the coastal waters will be early Thursday
night and again late Sunday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...VAO/RH