Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
199 FXUS62 KILM 232359 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 759 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFS. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible especially eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon, and again during Monday. 2) At or above normal temperatures are expected through the week with the chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible especially eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon, and again during Monday. Water vapor imagery shows a channeled plume of moisture offshore with the westward extent of this moisture along coastal areas. In addition, a weak front just west of the forecast area is projected to drift toward the coast through tonight and Monday. The higher moisture along the coast along with the sea breeze, slowly approaching front and decent instability will result in a Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon, and again tomorrow. The best chances will be near the coastal areas and adjacent inland areas given the PWAT distribution. KEY MESSAGE 2...At or above normal temperatures are expected through the week with the chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing mid to late week. The core of mid/upper ridging will remain across TX/NM/AZ through the week allowing for more normal temperatures across the forecast area. The H5 trough currently in place across the eastern U.S. will gradually become more zonal by mid-week followed by additional weak troughing aloft toward the end of the week. The old front that will linger across the area through the first part of the week is expected to waffle back to the north by the end of week. A weak inland trough along with better support aloft should result in better rainfall chances as the week progresses. In addition, PWATs are expected to surge above 2 inches toward the end of the week. If current trends continue then all signs point to higher rainfall chances Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Widespread VFR to start off the 00Z TAF period. There is still the potential for isolated showers or storms this evening, but rain chances are low enough to preclude any rain mention in the TAFs for tonight. The prospects for inland stratus/fog look less promising tonight compared to last night, but there is still low to moderate confidence in restrictions at KFLO/KLBT overnight into early Monday morning. Otherwise, a weak front will move into the vicinity and stall. The front and seabreeze will result in some convection Monday mainly towards the coast, handled by PROB30 groups. Extended Forecast... Mainly VFR with early morning fog and stratus possible each morning. The areal coverage of storms is projected to increase at all terminals from the mid to latter parts of the week. This could lead to restrictions from time to time in/near any of the rounds of convection that develop. && .MARINE... Through Friday... A weak front will move into the coastal plains later later today/tonight with S-SWly flow prevailing across the adjacent waters. This boundary may become nearly stationary along the coast the first part of the week with light/variable conditions near the front and generally light S-SWly to its east and south. Any convection has the potential to create locally higher wind/wave conditions. The old boundary will likely drift back to the north by mid-week with an increase in S-SWly flow that will persist through Friday. Overall, seas will be in the 2-4 ft range offshore, and 1-3 across the coastal waters. However, as mentioned above, locally enhanced winds/seas are expected at times as a result of convection. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS KEY MESSAGES...SRP DISCUSSION...SRP AVIATION...MAS/SRP MARINE...SRP